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February 2014 Observations and Discussion

Geos

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in East of the Rockies

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Tony, I'd imagine the warmth and rain on top if it would do a little damage to the ice in the middle of the lake where the ice is thinner.  Probably not enough to aggravate a large chunk of it.  Needless to say, enjoy the warmth bc Ol' Man Winter is coming back with a vengeance.

 

Hoping the rains are not that heavy.  Euro/GGEM are about the same with qpf totals.  NAM/GFS unload about 1" or more...that wouldn't be good to the snow pack.  Worst case scenario we would have 6"+ on the ground still I'm thinking.

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Niko
Niko

I have noticed that there are some people on here who have just had enough of this harch, long winter that we've been having and I dont get why they want this winter to end.. We have been having such

Tom
Tom

Definitely a much more organized system this run. Let's hope the trend continues in future runs.  This could become a monster.  Temps in low 20's and loads of moisture with this system.  Snow ratios w

Tom
Tom

Could we say...Here Blizzard Blizzard Blizzard???    

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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That's cold^!

Poor guy.

 

Lol at that picture!

I walked outside in short sleeves, no coat about an hour ago.

 

Torching into the mid 40s now. Snow depth has come down at least 3".

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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12z Euro already showing signs of what the pattern will be like next week and goes in line with the LRC.  Multiple waves running along the arctic boundary from the Plains into the GL region.  This is a great pattern for snow systems.

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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The word "torch" has been criticized by many but I have to agree with you Geos that it is finally a nice day. Almost forgot what it felt like to be in the 40's ;)

 

40s with the sun out too. Last time it was raining and at night. 

Maybe the last time was the very early in December?

 

Impressive WAA.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Tony Enthusiast

Tony

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12z Euro already showing signs of what the pattern will be like next week and goes in line with the LRC.  Multiple waves running along the arctic boundary from the Plains into the GL region.  This is a great pattern for snow systems.

I can see supression written all over it for next week...hope I am wrong. If we do get clippers it's getting to that time of the year where they can be more potent so someting to look forward to otherwise cold and dry is worthless.

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

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NAM looks like an ice/snow event here looking at the precip types

 

Dude, over 400 posts and still have no idea where you are..just sayin. You may want to add a locale.. ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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Peaked at almost 50° back at home! 49.9° to be exact.

 

Supposed to be quite windy on Thursday...

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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How did it get so warm with this snowpack on the ground?

 

Pacific air and windy conditions mixed it down to the surface.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Just looking at the 12z Euro teleconnections and signs of high latitude blocking are very evident.  For the 1st time this season, the AO is showing signs of tanking last week of February to levels we haven't seen this year.  The NAO is also forecasted to break through its pattern of slightly negative/positive territory and dipping into a solid negative stage.  Both the EPO/WPO (which have been driving this winter's cold pattern) are also taking a dive into negative territory.  Joe D Aleo's research regarding low geomagnetic solar cycles is looking more likely to come into fruition.  High latitude blocking happens late in the winter season/early Spring (just like it did last year).  If there is blocking, we may have more storms that slow and blow up to much larger systems.

 

Just to give you an idea what may be yet to come, last year we had 10.7" of snow up to this day and we finished off the year around 34".  Given the pattern we have been this winter, I would not be surprised if we are able to get another 2 Feet of snow from this point on.  Odds are certainly in our favor for a lot more snowfall.

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Iowawx Enthusiast

Iowawx

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Just looking at the 12z Euro teleconnections and signs of high latitude blocking are very evident.  For the 1st time this season, the AO is showing signs of tanking last week of February to levels we haven't seen this year.  The NAO is also forecasted to break through its pattern of slightly negative/positive territory and dipping into a solid negative stage.  Both the EPO/WPO (which have been driving this winter's cold pattern) are also taking a dive into negative territory.  Joe D Aleo's research regarding low geomagnetic solar cycles is looking more likely to come into fruition.  High latitude blocking happens late in the winter season/early Spring (just like it did last year).  If there is blocking, we may have more storms that slow and blow up to much larger systems.

 

Just to give you an idea what may be yet to come, last year we had 10.7" of snow up to this day and we finished off the year around 34".  Given the pattern we have been this winter, I would not be surprised if we are able to get another 2 Feet of snow from this point on.  Odds are certainly in our favor for a lot more snowfall.

Tom, you just made my day!! It really is starting to look like we won't get much snow on Thursday, and I still want more. Maybe Thursday can turn more towards our favor in Iowa. 

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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+1 Dominick, I think the placement of the PV this time around wont suppress storms as much since we are late in the season.  We are still in a good spot to see these waves along the southern periphery of the arctic air.  Although, sometime later next week I feel we will have a visit of the PV...round 4...fight!

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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CFSv2 trending even colder for March...this could become an epic month of cold (departure wise), possibly colder than last year.  Last year we didn't have the cross polar flow that we have this year with the amplifying jet stream into the arctic regions near Alaska.  If I remember correctly, the cold last year was based on the cold building over Canada and not the arctic regions of Siberia or the north pole.

 

 

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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What a beautiful night out. Clear skies, temps in the mid 30s still, a little breeze. Just seems like a perfect night compared to what we've had. Was out in shorts and a sweatshirt a little bit ago, and it felt just perfect!

 

Yeah it's really nice out! Furnace isn't kicking on as often either. 38-39° here.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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East Dubzz Collaborator

East Dubzz

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Yeah it's really nice out! Furnace isn't kicking on as often either. 38-39° here.

Tomorrow is going to be a really nice one. Almost all the snow and ice still on my driveway is gone. Still a little left, but that should be all gone tomorrow. That's nice too. Forecast of 40 and sunny tomorrow. Wouldn't be surprised to see it overachieve again.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Hell ya man!  Been hitting the gym hard and sculpting the body.  Chicago is going to go nuts when the temps hit the 60's/70's...I remember 2 years ago the Spring was so bad that when temps hit the 90's on Memorial Day...North Ave beach closed bc it was overly crowded.  I could see that happening this year if April doesn't flip warm.

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