February 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Nice, that's pretty solid James.  You should get another couple inches tomorrow and be close to 12" by then.  Who knows, you may be close to 16" by Monday if all works out.  I'm hoping we don't get too much warming next week and if we do get rain, hoping it is drier than being advertised on some of the models.  I really think that the 21-22nd system will be cutting around the lower lakes somewhere so that shouldn't bring substantial warmth so we can keep the snow cover around.

[Tom]

Met's are starting to back off on high temps next week...no more 50's, more modest lower 40's.  I can see those temps falling even farther as we head into next week.  I'm a firm believer of the LRC and it has done extremely well this year.  The track of next week's system won't cut that far NW as the 18z GFS showed today.

[th_snow]

It's hard to believe the Euro will verify when its the only one showing a very strong system.  Euro has had a problem this year over amping snow storms this year in long range.  Both GGEM/GFS keep that system farther SE actually and matches up pretty close to the LRC pattern this year.  We haven't had a western lakes cutter like that all season long.

Not entirely on its own. The UKMET has been supporting it and the euro's own ensembles support it too. Just something to keep in mind. Time will tell.

[Hawkeye]

Picked up a surprise 1.1" of snow this morning when the clipper tracked a bit farther north than expected.  

[Geos]

You have to remember that with the sun rising higher and higher in the Arctic in March - the sunlight acts to break down the polar vortex (just like it does over Antarctica). I wouldn't doubt a cold outbreak in March, but sub zero lows are very, very rare in March and have only occurred in the opening week in these parts.

 

The NAO will remain + for awhile, with the AO spiking near the 20th. So that's probably why the models remain showing a NW trend with the system.

 

Tomorrow I'm going to start digging out my culverts in anticipation of the runoff. I notice the city of Racine was removing ice and snow along the curbs today.

[Tom]

If you look back on December 21st the NAO was roughly +1, AO +2, PNA near neutral...this time around the forecasts are +0.5 NAO, AO near Neutral to Positve and -PNA.  So pretty similar if you ask me.

[Tom]

This has been far from a normal winter season, in fact, record pace in the temp category for our whole region.  That's why I wouldn't be surprised to see another round of the PV end of February and beyond.  Yes it may be harder to get subzero nights due to increased sunlight but that's just one aspect of the story.  When you take into account SSW, snow pack, cross polar flow, the ingredients start adding all up.

[Tom]

Here are 2 maps showing the system that is a part of the LRC in Cycle 1 and Cycle 2 that is poised to hit our region next weekend.  The maps below are from Oct 28th and Dec 19th, both clearly show what's called and "inside slider" that hits N/C California each time during its cycle.  Models right now are showing a more northerly track into Oregon/Washington and then ejecting through the central Rockies.  This is a big difference in track and the reason why the system is trending NW.  Now, I have confidence that you will see the models dig this system farther south into N/C Cali and therefore come farther south into the 4 corners region.  If that happens, you will see a trend farther SE.  The LRC is a fascinating tool forecasting wx patterns in the long range. 

[Tom]

00z GFS coming in even colder for Tue-Wed...no more 40's, mid 30's for N IL/E IA/S WI.  Snow pack cooling atmosphere and models latching on to it.

[DominicR]

Tom, ORD sitting at what right now ORD. Seems like we have a good run to make it 3rd at lest.

[Tom]

ORD is officially at 62.1" for the season...if we tack on 1" tomorrow and if we can get 5" on Monday (going bullish)....we could perceivably be creeping every so close to 3rd place.

[Tom]

With Lake Michigan 80% ice covered, surprisingly there is lake effect snow forming on the western shores of Michigan and N IN.

[DominicR]

00z GFS coming in even colder for Tue-Wed...no more 40's, mid 30's for N IL/E IA/S WI.  Snow pack cooling atmosphere and models latching on to it.

I assume. 50 not gonna happen. Maybe period of low-mid 40s as noise of warm air pushes in but mid-upper 30s sound like good bet.

[DominicR]

I thought mid week would be a wash-out with floods but not looking like it at all.

[Tom]

Nope, and this was the pattern if you look at the LRC.  So for everyone worried about 50's and rain, you can say adios to that.

[Geos]

I'll have to stay up and see if the EURO still holds its ground.

 

Interesting... a solution, wave at 174 hours pushing into the central Plains on the GFS.

[East Dubzz]

Isn't the period where we're looking at 50s with the potential system late next week? Like Thursday?

[Tom]

The only day where 50's could be possible would be on Thursday...

[East Dubzz]

The only day where 50's could be possible would be on Thursday...

Yeah, I figured that would be the case all along. I wasn't even liking the possibility of 40s most of the days. Will be still be warm enough to take a chunk out of the snow pack, however. Although if the NAM is onto anything, there will plenty of that around.

[Madtown]

Nam...whats that up to tonight?

[Geos]

Nam...whats that up to tonight?

 

Went a bit north. Some ice and sleet issues this far north. Mostly snow for you.

[Tom]

00z Euro still hanging on to a western lakes cutter that bombs out in NW WI.  Meanwhile, 00z GGEM trends SE and has a 994mb SLP near Wichita, KS and heads NE towards NW IN @ 06z Friday.  This is more in line to a solution that I see happening.  Brings rain/snow line very close to N IL...IA/S WI get snow and rain this run.  Tons of precip with this system.  It's going to be a nail biter trying to figure this one out over the next week, but exciting nonetheless.  I'd use this run as a guide to what the LRC did back in Cycle 1 & 2.  GGEM only model that's seeing what I'm thinking.

 

 

Edit:  Keep in mind it was the GGEM that saw the Monday system and now all the other global models playing catch up.  The GGEM also saw the cooler temps next week.

[Geos]

Down to 3° here this morning. Temperature rising quickly under sunny skies.

[Jaycee]

How do you guys think Nebraska eill do out of this monster storm?? It looks like it takes the ideal track thru KC, but is it having phasing issues?? Doesnt seem like its wrapping up and really exploding til it gets to IA/MN

[Tom]

Well, well, well....look what the 06z GFS is showing now for next weekend????  HAHA, I love it when models do what I'm thinking.  Huge trend SE and more in line now with what the 00z GGEM from last night showing.  Gosh, the LRC can be a powerful tool.  Looks like NO warm up in site for next week and the BIG hype is looking less and less likely on the GFS.

 

 

[james1976]

look at that snowfall bullseye for my area!

[Tony]

Yep, it really was Hype and a lot of folks bought into it. A winter like this one does not want to warm especially what the models were saying a couple days back. Even the Euro had highs in the 60's for later next week from a couple days ago. Will be interesting to see how much we can continue to add to our snowpack. At least the extended looks active.

[Tom]

+1 Tony, when making a forecast, you have to have a human touch to it and not BUY into every model run.  The consistent pattern of this "extreme" winter we have been experiencing thus far is NOT just going to Flip into a warm pattern.  Even when the models show it warming in long term, the cold wins out and the battle begins.  On top of that, the LRC has been unbelievably accurate this winter and in previous winters.  It's going to be funny to see local NWS offices noticing the colder runs and the hype of flooding concerns out the window and we could be on the verge of a major winter storm instead of a Spring time flooding concern.  Look, there is still lots of time for this system to develop but the trend has been SE and the GGEM was the ONLY model that saw this pattern in the long range.  I'd bet my money that our region gets hit with another major winter storm.

[East Dubzz]

Just want to throw this out there, but temps are still mid 30s most of next week and then Thursday still almost reaches 40, so there will be some melting still. And if the Euro were to end up being right, we still have some issues. But I am open to some snow, and since the temps don't look brutal, I could be down for this not as warm weather, just don't bring the temps back down too low

 

Oh, and hit -3 last night. Add another negative day to the total!

[Money]

GFS looks to be another big winter storm at HR 177.

 

1002 low in S. MO with a HP to the north that should prevent this from cutting too much.

[Money]

Ends up tracking through LAF or so and up into MI.

 

6+ in WI

[Tom]

Hey ED, I'm right there with ya.  It'll feel nice to have temps bump up into mid 30's for a couple days or so.  However, Ol' Man Winter is not over for our region and I've always been saying that this storm next weekend may turn out to be an IA/WI special and things are pointing that way.  Our area may finally have a big enough storm where a large area of 6"+ is shared through the region.

[Tom]

12z GGEM looking like the GFS this run...developing SLP near KS/OK border along a stalled cold front, which BTW, is exactly what happened back in December.  It's amazing how the models start looking like the pattern did in cycle 1 & 2.

[james1976]

wow to the gfs run for next weekend! funny how it had it going way nw yesterday.....yup Tom is right with the LRC thing. this storm is looking good for many of us. Man what a pattern. i have an advisory today, monday is looking good, and now next weekend

[Money]

976 L on the HR 384 GFS in Minny, yet temps only reach 35-40 degrees in WI/IL. you would think with a low that strong it would be much warmer. 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

+1 Tony, when making a forecast, you have to have a human touch to it and not BUY into every model run.  The consistent pattern of this "extreme" winter we have been experiencing thus far is NOT just going to Flip into a warm pattern.  Even when the models show it warming in long term, the cold wins out and the battle begins.  On top of that, the LRC has been unbelievably accurate this winter and in previous winters.  It's going to be funny to see local NWS offices noticing the colder runs and the hype of flooding concerns out the window and we could be on the verge of a major winter storm instead of a Spring time flooding concern.  Look, there is still lots of time for this system to develop but the trend has been SE and the GGEM was the ONLY model that saw this pattern in the long range.  I'd bet my money that our region gets hit with another major winter storm.

 

Yep, forecasting should be a blend of model projections and knowledge of the recent pattern/persistence.

[East Dubzz]

976 L on the HR 384 GFS in Minny, yet temps only reach 35-40 degrees in WI/IL. you would think with a low that strong it would be much warmer.

 

Your first problem is analyzing HR 384 that close

[DominicR]

How do you guys think Nebraska eill do out of this monster storm?? It looks like it takes the ideal track thru KC, but is it having phasing issues?? Doesnt seem like its wrapping up and really exploding til it gets to IA/MN

 

Next weekend is up for grabs for anyone right now. I could see this cut west of Chicago.

[Tom]

12z Euro said bye bye to the Thursday bomb it has been forecasting...looking more like a stalled boundary over our area with some lighter rains in S IA/N IL and points south for Thursday.

[Tom]

Now we see the 12z Euro correct itself and fit the LRC pattern for next Fri/Sat system.  Not surprised at all...here are the 24 hour totals...looks like a CO LOW type system that cuts up the OV.