December 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Money]

@ 144 First piece 1000mb over IA, second piece near Gulf Coast 998mb near TX/LA...

 

Yup. She's' going to bomb out.

[Tom]

Yup. She's' going to bomb out.

These type of systems coming out of the Gulf are some of the most memorable storms that hit the Midwest/Lakes, especially when they bomb out.

[gosaints]

These type of systems coming out of the Gulf are some of the most memorable storms that hit the Midwest/Lakes, especially when they bomb out.

Obvious question seems to be when and where it bombs.  

[Money]

976 in SW. Ohio at HR 168. Probably gonna head due N from there. 

[Money]

Looks exactly like 0z in terms of placement/strength. No idea on precip maps tho

[Tom]

Check out that wind field.......I'll post Wx Bell maps when they load...

[Money]

Any guesses on the pressure at hr 192?

 

I'll say 963 in NE MI

[tim the weatherman]

accuweather has said that a shift could go further west or east and they also has said tha mainly rain along the coast and mostly the apps.

[NEJeremy]

neat. if the Euro is right, we'll have 40-50 mph winds and no snow here in Nebraska. Just cold and windy

[Tom]

accuweather has said that a shift could go further west or east and they also has said tha mainly rain along the coast and mostly the apps.

If anything, this will shift NW with a bombing system like this...

[JSMY]

Since Im new to this and really enjoy the threads you guys have on here. Help out the Detroit Metro girl a little! I keep watching everyday crossing my fingers! And I want to thank everyone for all the information. I am learning a lot! 

[Money]

961.9 in N. MI/S. CN at HR 192.....

[Tom]

You want to be in the Front Right and Left Rear exit region of the jet stream to get the most lift and snowfall....look at this jet structure...

[tim the weatherman]

i am truly  thinking that from chicago to detroit needs to be cautious about this in case this storm does go negative tilt.

[Money]

Such a beast of a storm, even if it's lacking in the snow dept. 

[Tom]

12z Euro...keeps alot of its moisture with the southern piece and near the SLP...

[winterfreak]

EURO is staying the course. Too far south and east. Man that thing is a beast. Oh well can't win them all.

[Tom]

i am truly  thinking that from chicago to detroit needs to be cautious about this in case this storm does go negative tilt.

Right now, we need it to get neg tilt earlier so it can throw back more moisture into cold sector.

 

After tonights runs, I think its a good idea for me to start a Thread for this system even though its 6 days out.

[Money]

12z Euro...keeps alot of its moisture with the southern piece and near the SLP...

 

Solid 4-6 inches of snow here. I would take it.

[tim the weatherman]

of course we need to make a thread on this right away.

[Tom]

East Coast is going to be very unhappy during these holidays with no snow cover....heavy rains will wash that right out.

[Money]

I wouldn't even worry about precip or precip amounts though. Models are going to have a hard enough time determining when the phasing occurs let alone precip amounts 

[Money]

Euro has the other storm developing at HR 216. 996 in SW MO. 

[Tom]

I wouldn't even worry about precip or precip amounts though. Models are going to have a hard enough time determining when the phasing occurs let alone precip amounts 

There will be already 2 monster storms in 1 months time to be exact in our region.  How often does that happen???  Very scarce and probably a very good indicator what we can expect the rest of this winter.  

[Tom]

Both NAO/AO/PNA all suggest that this could phase a bit quicker than what the models are showing now.  In fact, the first piece may even dig farther south due to the AO tanking.  Lots of time left and 12 more Euro runs to go...

[Money]

Remember the storm a month ago how it took until like 48-72 hours from within the event to figure out the snow aspect? Could be the same thing with this storm. 

[Tom]

2nd storm looks sheared but still has some snows in the Plains/Midwest....

[Money]

imo the thing we should be watching for in the next 3-4 days is the northern stream. If models trend that farther south, than this thing could phase even more. If it stays more northerly (like GGEM is showing) than the phase will occur way too far east for most in this area.

[Money]

Here are all the models (UKMET/GGEM/GFS) at HR 120

 

GGEM:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

 

UKIE

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

 

GFS

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gfs_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

 

 

Anyone notice the difference between GFS/UKIE and the GGEM?

[Tom]

imo the thing we should be watching for in the next 3-4 days is the northern stream. If models trend that farther south, than this thing could phase even more. If it stays more northerly (like GGEM is showing) than the phase will occur way too far east for most in this area.

Exactly, back in Nov the teleconnections were not favorable for that storm to phase as early as we wanted it to be.  However, for this storm there is way more blocking available to allow the first piece to dig farther south and phase earlier.  The trend on the Euro has been farther south with the first piece so that is def something to watch.

[tim the weatherman]

also they has said that colder air will wrap into the system.

[Tom]

-PNA pretty evident when the second storm tries to form and rides up from the Plains to the Lakes...big 1025 Bermuda High in the Atlantic.  

[tim the weatherman]

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2014/650x366_12171624_hd27.jpg

[FV-Mike]

Tom,Money, Gosaints thanks for sharing all the info!

[winterfreak]

Second wave post Christmas is weak sauce but takes a nice track. Too soon after the eve bomb.

[gosaints]

Wouldn't get to worked up over track yet.  Obviously a ton of time to go.  Really could see the low tracking anywhere from western lake michigan to detroit..

[Thundersnow12]

Yeah just can't generate much snow at all like you'd think it would with all the warm air being pulled into the circulation. West of say a GRB-MKE-IKK line stay cold enough for snow but the precip can't get this far west as the main precip slug moves almost due north. Sfc low bottoms out at 961mb. The wave rounding the base of the trof digs so far south allowing for warm air to advect northward so you get a situation where your strongest CAA is coming in and wrapping around and your WAA is getting pulled up and around to the north of the sfc low 

[tim the weatherman]

accuweather's bernie rayno said in a video that the midwest could have a big snowstorm.

[winterfreak]

Looks like GFS brings back the warmth after Christmas for a little while. Temperatures rising into the upper forties.

[tim the weatherman]

Looks like GFS brings back the warmth after Christmas for a little while. Temperatures rising into the upper forties.

there is no way insane this is going to happen a couple of big snowstorms like this the gfs is in lala land that temps rising into the upper 40s more like single digits or belowzero.