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December 2014 Observations and Discussion

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Grizzcoat
Grizzcoat

i think the point of people like Money/Tom etc is not that everyone that disagrees with them about cold/snow returning by the last 10 days or so of the month needs to be admitted-- but that ever since

gosaints
gosaints

Alrighty then... Next time someone posts torches in lala land better not here any push back from you or others than either...

stratosjeff
stratosjeff

Dude, let it go. I'm sorry people attack you. I can understand some of the frustration though. You don't use any punctuation in your posts, you basically posted a farmers almanac storm (360 hrs). I as

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gabel23 Mentor

gabel23

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Speaking of hyping up, I figure I post this. It was the last winter we had in which anything interesting happened for us around my area. The good old x mas blizzard of 2009!! I had a 23" snow depth towards the end of the month and a yearly total of snow for the month of December! For sure the best winter I have ever experienced, I'm just getting so anxious for anything to fall around my area I figure I bring back a little nostalgia. 

 

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/gid/?n=blizzard_recap

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Scott26 Newbie

Scott26

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Once this system next weekend either gets squashed or becomes an EC storm then we can look forward to the next system which would be probably New Years week and we know what will happen with that....wash/rinse/repeat is all that needs to be said. What a waste of December so far and we could possibly go into the record books this month with regards to the least amount of snow, at least top 5.

 

Just venting cause this setup we are seeing does not bode well for the Midwest. Sure systems look great 7 days out but as we get closer they seem to fall apart or not enough cold air or who knows what else.

Talking certainties more than a week out isn't going to bid you well. There are still a lot of possible solutions and there is no reason to be so pessimistic. Even if we end up missing out on both storms we still have all winter ahead of us. Also stop taking those guys on AmericanWx so seriously if that is where you're getting some of your info from. Some of those guys are just trolls. Most of the 12Z Euro ensembles, for example, have that storm either a direct hit or to our north and west rather than our south. But, once again be patient because we're still very early in the winter.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Once this system next weekend either gets squashed or becomes an EC storm then we can look forward to the next system which would be probably New Years week and we know what will happen with that....wash/rinse/repeat is all that needs to be said. What a waste of December so far and we could possibly go into the record books this month with regards to the least amount of snow, at least top 5.

 

Just venting cause this setup we are seeing does not bode well for the Midwest. Sure systems look great 7 days out but as we get closer they seem to fall apart or not enough cold air or who knows what else.

Somebody is having a bad day....Group Hug!  Hang in there Tony, this a very complicated and dynamic system.  Can't start thinking this is going to be an EC 6 days out.  Like Scott said, ensembles are still showing an optimistic situation.  Also, for the following system, its showing some big hitters from the Plains to the Lakes.  More snow is shown from that system than the Christmas Eve storm.  Somebody in our region is going to get a ton of snow to finish off this month.  The pattern is loading up and doesn't look like it will be going away any time soon. Especially if you looked at the new JMA weeklies today signalling a cold pattern 2 weeks into January.

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Tony Enthusiast

Tony

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Talking certainties more than a week out isn't going to bid you well. There are still a lot of possible solutions and there is no reason to be so pessimistic. Even if we end up missing out on both storms we still have all winter ahead of us. Also stop taking those guys on AmericanWx so seriously if that is where you're getting some of your info from. Some of those guys are just trolls. Most of the 12Z Euro ensembles, for example, have that storm either a direct hit or to our north and west rather than our south. But, once again be patient because we're still very early in the winter.

I hear you that winter still has a long ways to go just not satisfied with the way it has started. I know and understand we can't get a direct hit every time it's just that some of these model runs just suck me in and I know I shouldn't do that but it's been so darn boring in the weather department that it's hard not to do. Just need to be patient and I'm sure we will be rewarded at some point in time. At least there is finally some storms to track so better than nothing. 

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Tony Enthusiast

Tony

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Somebody is having a bad day....Group Hug!  Hang in there Tony, this a very complicated and dynamic system.  Can't start thinking this is going to be an EC 6 days out.  Like Scott said, ensembles are still showing an optimistic situation.  Also, for the following system, its showing some big hitters from the Plains to the Lakes.  More snow is shown from that system than the Christmas Eve storm.  Somebody in our region is going to get a ton of snow to finish off this month.  The pattern is loading up and doesn't look like it will be going away any time soon. Especially if you looked at the new JMA weeklies today signalling a cold pattern 2 weeks into January.

Fell better already!! ;)

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tim the weatherman Newbie

tim the weatherman

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Talking certainties more than a week out isn't going to bid you well. There are still a lot of possible solutions and there is no reason to be so pessimistic. Even if we end up missing out on both storms we still have all winter ahead of us. Also stop taking those guys on AmericanWx so seriously if that is where you're getting some of your info from. Some of those guys are just trolls. Most of the 12Z Euro ensembles, for example, have that storm either a direct hit or to our north and west rather than our south. But, once again be patient because we're still very early in the winter.

i agree scott26.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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My goodness are there some freakin' huge storms in the extended on the 18z GFS...it's also been hinting on that potential Monster as we open January I've been talking about.

 

The mini Ice Age...Winter 2014-15...pattern looks ripe.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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yeah the 18Z looked wonderful! too bad it will change... :)

Sure will, but one thing is for certain, there won't be a NW Flow like many believe will happen.  This is a much different pattern than last year's.  Pacific storms will continue to bombard the west coast along with the Split Flow pattern.  Last year we had a massive body of warm waters in the NE Pacific with NO storm systems hitting the west coast.  Look at the Pacific storm train on the 18z GFS (its not the only run showing this) and the blocking High in the NE Pacific near AK that will deliver the cold.  Fun times ahead.

 

FWIW, the storm train in the Pacific is exactly where the JMA Weeklies had the tongue of blue in the Pacific I posted earlier today indicating the storm track.

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tim the weatherman Newbie

tim the weatherman

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Sure will, but one thing is for certain, there won't be a NW Flow like many believe will happen.  This is a much different pattern than last year's.  Pacific storms will continue to bombard the west coast along with the Split Flow pattern.  Last year we had a massive body of warm waters in the NE Pacific with NO storm systems hitting the west coast.  Look at the Pacific storm train on the 18z GFS (its not the only run showing this) and the blocking High in the NE Pacific near AK that will deliver the cold.  Fun times ahead.

 

FWIW, the storm train in the Pacific is exactly where the JMA Weeklies had the tongue of blue in the Pacific I posted earlier today indicating the storm track.

looks like a parade of storms coming up.

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NEJeremy Newbie

NEJeremy

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Sure will, but one thing is for certain, there won't be a NW Flow like many believe will happen.  This is a much different pattern than last year's.  Pacific storms will continue to bombard the west coast along with the Split Flow pattern.  Last year we had a massive body of warm waters in the NE Pacific with NO storm systems hitting the west coast.  Look at the Pacific storm train on the 18z GFS (its not the only run showing this) and the blocking High in the NE Pacific near AK that will deliver the cold.  Fun times ahead.

 

FWIW, the storm train in the Pacific is exactly where the JMA Weeklies had the tongue of blue in the Pacific I posted earlier today indicating the storm track.

 

that's a beautiful sight to see on that forecast map over the Pacific O

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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have been noticing that after the new year after the 27th storm of this month another storm on the 3rd of jan.

That storm is part of the LRC cycle and poised to hit around Jan 3-5th.  Another potential monster cutter, this time I think the pieces to the puzzle will be available to form a widespread snowfall.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Classic coast to coast storm pattern on the 18z GFS ensembles.  More importantly, you have the Blocking up on Top delivering the cold air and the jet stream cutting underneath the NE Pacific ridge ushering in the storm systems.  Winter of 1977-78 repeat in the making????  This is a winter lovers dream.

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james1976 Veteran

james1976

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I just looked at the 18z GFS. And that was the greatest loop ive ever seen. Lmao. Can we lock that in?? Storm Parade coming up! And I do believe we are heading into a stormier colder pattern, not just cuz the GFS, but all medium-long range signales are pointing to that. Heck, even my local met just said on TV a few minutes ago that it is going to get much colder by New Years with temps way below normal. And he is very conservative. I was a bit surprised to hear him say that.

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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

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I just looked at the 18z GFS. And that was the greatest loop ive ever seen. Lmao. Can we lock that in?? Storm Parade coming up! And I do believe we are heading into a stormier colder pattern, not just cuz the GFS, but all medium-long range signales are pointing to that. Heck, even my local met just said on TV a few minutes ago that it is going to get much colder by New Years with temps way below normal. And he is very conservative. I was a bit surprised to hear him say that.

James--- was that a DSM station? if so-- what channel?

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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Global SST anomalies for 12/18. Nice seeing that the waters are starting to cool off Ecuador as the El Niño edges westward.

 

 

@ Winterfreak - the GFS didn't handle the energy correctly on this run. Bad run, no question about it.

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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james1976 Veteran

james1976

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James--- was that a DSM station? if so-- what channel?

No.....it was KWWL out of Waterloo, as Bud said. He is a very conservative meteorologist and rarely gets excited about anything past 7 days. So I was surprised to hear him be confident about something that is 2 weeks out.

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tim the weatherman Newbie

tim the weatherman

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Global SST anomalies for 12/18. Nice seeing that the waters are starting to cool off Ecuador as the El Niño edges westward.

 

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif

 

@ Winterfreak - the GFS didn't handle the energy correctly on this run. Bad run, no question about it.

i was looking around  and we might have an el nino for next year too or unless we might go neutral or go in la nina world and with this wouldn't suprise me that this will morph into modiki el nino to more a la nina.

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