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December 2014 Observations and Discussion

Tom

By Tom
in East of the Rockies

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Grizzcoat
Grizzcoat

i think the point of people like Money/Tom etc is not that everyone that disagrees with them about cold/snow returning by the last 10 days or so of the month needs to be admitted-- but that ever since

gosaints
gosaints

Alrighty then... Next time someone posts torches in lala land better not here any push back from you or others than either...

stratosjeff
stratosjeff

Dude, let it go. I'm sorry people attack you. I can understand some of the frustration though. You don't use any punctuation in your posts, you basically posted a farmers almanac storm (360 hrs). I as

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Is it a cutter or what? GFS OP is showing a clipper.

It's basically 2 pieces of energy that phase into one monster storm.  One piece comes down from the north and the other from the south and phases into one.  I think this storm is correlating well with the East Asian Theory.

 

Notice in Japan there are 2 separate pieces that eventually phase into one huge storm out that way.  The 18z GFS Par and 00z GFS both show 2 separate pieces, but the 00z run phased these pieces together.  The 12z Euro also showed 2 distinct pieces of energy as well but didn't phase.  Plenty of time to see how this one unfolds.

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james1976 Veteran

james1976

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This might be the next one to track. The system for the 20th looks like its a weak wave sailing off to the east coast. Christmas Eve and after look to get interesting. Still a ways out yet.....but I'll be watching. Winter has to arrive at some point.

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WildWisconsinWeather Newbie

WildWisconsinWeather

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by my judgement the low is centrerd towards danville il also nine days away if this verfies we might have to make a thread towards this weekend remenber the groundhogs day blizzard of 2011 when the low went right through central illinois this one is taking a similar track.

 

On one model run lol!  Hold your horses partner, although I agree there is good potential in that timeframe.

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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

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This is exactly the type of pattern that leads many to forget how mild/no snow it was 1-2 weeks ago. People have a short a memory. Most areas of the Upper Midwest will have a White Christmas with brutal air the following week.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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CentralNebWeather Grand Master

CentralNebWeather

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Could be a really interesting and snowy pattern in the next 2 weeks.  Traveling to relatives in Kansas City for Christmas from Central Nebraska.  Leaving on Friday the 19th and coming back on the 22nd.  Hopefully snow before and after.  It is a nice 5 hour 15 minute drive in good weather conditions but horrendously long during storms.  I remember several times having to stop in Lincoln or York or even Kearney and get a hotel room on the way home as I-80 was closed or so much traffic was backed up for accidents it was safer to pull over.

 

Safe travels to all over the holidays and think snow.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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00z Euro Ensembles/Control really hitting this system on Christmas Eve...the model is also consistently seeing that SE ridge build in during the middle/long range and that is a primo pattern to see cutters around these parts.

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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10868049_678033345643359_416176294337793

This can actually bode well for LES in snow belts.  I remember last year, we already saw 3 nights subzero for ORD by now.  I'm sure we will pay for it late this month into January.  Let's build that snow cover first though.

 

Meantime, Euro Control is showing the nation in the deep freeze for NYE!

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gosaints Collaborator

gosaints

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This can actually bode well for LES in snow belts.  I remember last year, we already saw 3 nights subzero for ORD by now.  I'm sure we will pay for it late this month into January.  Let's build that snow cover first though.

 

Meantime, Euro Control is showing the nation in the deep freeze for NYE!

Hopefully we have nice snowpack before the deep freeze hits

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Tom, what I notice different than last year, is that the models want to keep the cold more over the plains than over the Great Lakes.  That should bode well for storms that want to ride up from the southwest, plenty of cold air to work with as long as they are not supressed to far south.

Much different pattern than last year for sure.  You also have the Pacific storm train slamming into the west coast and with a trough in the central CONUS, this will certainly continue to spin up storm systems.  Wait till Jan/Feb when the STJ becomes amped up and then even more moisture gets infiltrated into the pattern.  Fun times ahead.  Been waiting for this pattern of the LRC to cycle back through.  Good thing is that this year its a very short 41-42 day cycle which means less time waiting for the storms to cycle through!   :D

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gosaints Collaborator

gosaints

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Holy storms on the 12z GFS...

 

Has a strong clipper, has a strong L in the NE and a huge storm developing in the plains all within 24-48 hrs of each other

Very messy looking.  I am guessing its a confused model right now.  But without doubt would have to think something interesting will come out of it

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

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Euro Ensembles were showing 3 big storm systems all before NYE from the Plains to the Lakes.  You can thank that SE ridge boys and girls.  I remember ppl were worried the east coast would get all the action, but that has all but REVERSED due to the tanking PNA!  Something we saw last year with a predominant -PNA but with NO blocking present and the systems were sheared.  This will be the year with phased systems and the pattern to close off December might be a memorable one, especially during the Holidays.

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tim the weatherman Newbie

tim the weatherman

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Euro Ensembles were showing 3 big storm systems all before NYE from the Plains to the Lakes.  You can thank that SE ridge boys and girls.  I remember ppl were worried the east coast would get all the action, but that has all but REVERSED due to the tanking PNA!  Something we saw last year with a predominant -PNA but with NO blocking present and the systems were sheared.  This will be the year with phased systems and the pattern to close off December might be a memorable one, especially during the Holidays.

i am suspecting that the nao has something to do with it too.

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