Money Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Nothing huge, but the snow reaches as far north as S. WI this run. Just need it to trend stronger as it heads NE and not weaker. 3-5 in N. MO/C. IL and 1-3 in IA/N. IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 00z GFS...still showing up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Check out what the CFSv2 is showing down the road. It has the cold centered in the central CONUS with pronounced ridging along the east coast. This would create an active storm track from the Plains to the Lakes. Doesn't this look familiar??? Sure does...just look back what happened in November. The LRC is def cycling through the pattern. It wasn't an active November Tom. It was cold but not active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Gfs keeping things interesting. Will the euro shift north is the gfs off its rocker?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 November was more active than this month has! By a long shot too. The pattern was never stagnant in November, although it was drier than normal. The LES belts had the best of both worlds, cold and snowy. 2 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Parallel gfs much further south than regular gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Welp nothing at all on the GFS. Maybe the EURO and GFS can meet half way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 What I'm noticing is that the ULL is a lot more displaced on the GFS than the Euro. So even a track through far southern Illinois into Northern Kentucky brings the heaviest precip in the cold sector well North. I would probably favor the Euro solution right now, but it's not like the ensemble support was fantastic or anything either. There is a lot to sort out and we will get a better picture once this current system is out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Well let's see what the GGEM says. I think if the baroclinic zone was stronger, you'd see a stronger system with at least some phasing present. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 It wasn't an active November Tom. It was cold but not active.Your neck of the woods was just cold, but parts of the Plains to the Lakes had their share of storminess. Those CFSv2 maps look very similar to how the cold outbreaks hit back in November. That's primarily the point I wanted to make anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 What I'm noticing is that the ULL is a lot more displaced on the GFS than the Euro. So even a track through far southern Illinois into Northern Kentucky brings the heaviest precip in the cold sector well North. I would probably favor the Euro solution right now, but it's not like the ensemble support was fantastic or anything either. There is a lot to sort out and we will get a better picture once this current system is out of the way.The GFS is also farther north this run with the SLP cutting through New Mexico and NOT Mexico like the Euro is showing. Euro has a tendency to dig systems to far south like this. It's hard not to discount the Euro during this time frame because it usually does pretty good. If this shifts the energy farther north in the 4 corners from previous runs, then it'll change the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Well let's see what the GGEM says. I think if the baroclinic zone was stronger, you'd see a stronger system with at least some phasing present.Yup, I don't think models have a good handle of that either. Look at the current storm that is the traversing the region as we speak. It looked like that storm system would track well to the south, but the models had more of a phase as we got closer. I'm not saying it's going to happen with this storm, but I don't see why it's not possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 GGEM is WAY south. Doesn't even have a low pressure system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Here is HR 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Gfs still has a Xmas eve storm but further southeast before it cuts up into ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 0z GFS with a 977 L over Detroit for the Christmas eve storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 0z GFS with a 977 L over Detroit for the Christmas eve storm. so that means the heaviest snow will be over chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014121500/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 GGEM always seems to have an over powering HP and temps much colder than they turn out. Nonetheless, it still shows a wave that forms out in the Plains with snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 The GFS continues to have runs here and there where it really tries to get this system going on the 19th/20th but can't fully do it. The wave most of the time is an open wave and it's moving quicker. A few runs for a few frames try to close it off at 500mb but it just gets too strung out and can't intensify like we want it to. The strong WAA via the LLJ in the WCB early on over the plains will be plenty enough to generate a good slug of precip up and over the front to get some snow it looks like in KS/MO as the GFS shows but maintaining any sort of organization as it moves ENE might be tough as the wave just looks to flat with no intensification signals right now. Several Euro ensemble members were amped up and NW of the op and the ensemble mean so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Sup TS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Snowman Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 The GFS continues to have runs here and there where it really tries to get this system going on the 19th/20th but can't fully do it. The wave most of the time is an open wave and it's moving quicker. A few runs for a few frames try to close it off at 500mb but it just gets too strung out and can't intensify like we want it to. The strong WAA via the LLJ in the WCB early on over the plains will be plenty enough to generate a good slug of precip up and over the front to get some snow it looks like in KS/MO as the GFS shows but maintaining any sort of organization as it moves ENE might be tough as the wave just looks to flat with no intensification signals right now. Several Euro ensemble members were amped up and NW of the op and the ensemble mean so we'll see. Yeah, unfortunate that this thing can't develop as much as we all want it to. Just glancing at 500mb vort maps, watching it essentially glide along the country's midsection... Probably won't see too much more than the 3-5" swath that's been showing up. Whether or not it will actually matter remains to be seen, but perhaps the GFS is being too progressive with the pattern here. NCEP has highlighted this as a bias, among other issues. I'm not holding my breath, but maybe we see a bit more from this system in coming runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 HR 120 EURO: 1001.7 in LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 0z euro takes a pretty strong low just to the south of Ohio before a secondary low develops in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 The 0z looked good for Nebraska. Not so much for iowa and Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 The weather can be summed up in one word that starts with a C and ends in P! 1 WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Looks like Lot is keeping the Friday and Saturday system as an option THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND NOW THEECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT NOT UNTIL SATURDAY ANDSATURDAY NIGHT AND MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 The supression call for the next storm is looking better and better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Back to waiting for la la model land to bring our winter weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Minneapolis broke there record high today at 7AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 54 and raining hard here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 I wonder if will see more days above 50 then total snow for December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 I wonder if will see more days above 50 then total snow for December?I would say not a chance in the Chicago area. Would be surprised to see a high above 40 after Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 I would say not a chance in the Chicago area. Would be surprised to see a high above 40 after Tuesday. how much snow have you had in December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 I misinterpreted what you said. For the entire month still think we will have more snow. Accuweather just wrote a story on the 3 storms. Very vague at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 12z runs not showing much to get excited about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 12z runs not showing much to get excited about12z Euro looking much different for the Christmas Eve storm now. Instead of holidng back the energy in the 4 corners and diving it into N Mexico, it comes out quicker and tries to phase something along the Appalachians. Baby steps I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 12z Euro...trying to form that Lakes Cutter. Interesting to see such a powerful storm to the north showing up in N MN on the 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Big step in the right direction.... Compare last night's jet stream structure from it's 00z run on 00z 24th...compared to today's run 00z 24th... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 I've also noticed the GFS(from time to time) and EURO trying to develop a big system on Christmas Day or just thereafter coming out of the Rockies when there will be plenty cold air around from the Plains and points East. This system also has some potential to be noteworthy. Fun times ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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