Christmas Eve Potential Major Winter Storm

[Tom]

18z GFS Par...

[Tom]

12z Euro Ensemble/Control...

[Money]

18z gfs parallel gets it down to under 980 in NW mi

 

Pretty sure that's been the most consistent model

[Tom]

18z gfs parallel gets it down to under 980 in NW mi

 

Pretty sure that's been the most consistent model

Def has been the most consistent model out of them all.  Let's see if it scores a coupe with this system.

[Geos]

That was this morning. Here is the afternoon.

 

Finally - about time.

 

Not sure exactly where they would be getting NE winds from if there favoring a solution more in line with the EURO. Winds stay N to NNW largely through the whole storm. 

[gosaints]

Down to 34 here. All gonna come down to surface temps tomorrow morning here

[Snowshoe]

Started to snow on my way home. I hope it's not a tease before the rain.

[The Snowman]

For those interested, an updated special discussion on this storm.

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/12/special-forecast-discussion-high-impact.html

[Madtown]

Well hoping for 3". All local mets not even mentioning snow. 30 percent of snow showers is it.

[Scott26]

For those interested, an updated special discussion on this storm.

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/12/special-forecast-discussion-high-impact.html

Can you explain to me why you think areas will see maximum amounts to 10 to 12 inches? I'm thinking the hardest hit areas will probably only get 3-4 inches because of the very warm ground and marginal temps. I understand if temps are a big colder than progged and this is all snow some areas may get a bit more, but I still feel 3 or 4 inches is the ceiling for this event. Also a lot of these snow maps show 10:1 ratio and this event will likely be 8:1 at best.

[Maxim]

Can you explain to me why you think areas will see maximum amounts to 10 to 12 inches? I'm thinking the hardest hit areas will probably only get 3-4 inches because of the very warm ground and marginal temps. I understand if temps are a big colder than progged and this is all snow some areas may get a bit more, but I still feel 3 or 4 inches is the ceiling for this event. Also a lot of these snow maps show 10:1 ratio and this event will likely be 8:1 at best.

I wouldn't be too surprised to see some areas exceeding 6", but I highly doubt anyone will reach a foot. And ground temps have nothing to do with limiting accumulations for this event...

[Thundersnow12]

Last 3 runs of the GFS with all of the ensemble member tracks showing the growing consensus

 

 

[Maxim]

Last 3 runs of the GFS with all of the ensemble member tracks showing the growing consensus

 

output_Bwf4YP.gif

So it's probably done trending west

[Money]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/f48.gif

 

54

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/f54.gif

[tim the weatherman]

Can you explain to me why you think areas will see maximum amounts to 10 to 12 inches? I'm thinking the hardest hit areas will probably only get 3-4 inches because of the very warm ground and marginal temps. I understand if temps are a big colder than progged and this is all snow some areas may get a bit more, but I still feel 3 or 4 inches is the ceiling for this event. Also a lot of these snow maps show 10:1 ratio and this event will likely be 8:1 at best.

the soil temps is hovering mid 30s into the 40s.

[tim the weatherman]

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/f48.gif

 

54

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/f54.gif

great maps money.

[Madtown]

We shall see.

[Maxim]

Could see some thundersnow possibly too. There are some convective elements with this system.

[Scott26]

Could see some thundersnow possibly too. There are some convective elements with this system.

The potential for higher totals is there, but we will see I guess. I can see isolated totals up to 5 or 6 inches, but 10-12 isn't happening.

[Tom]

With 20-30mph winds and a heavy wet snowfall, potential power outages may be in store.  The scenery on Christmas Day may be quite nice around here, especially when the snow will stick to everything in sight.

[Money]

SREF has come back east pretty much in line with the rest of the models. I guess some of the ridiculously west tracks went away. 

[tim the weatherman]

The potential for higher totals is there, but we will see I guess. I can see isolated totals up to 5 or 6 inches, but 10-12 isn't happening.

basiclly andrew at the weather is well experienced in these setups what he says are a fact so take this with a grain of salt.

[Money]

HR 39 SREF:

 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014122221/SREF_PMSL_MEAN_SD_f039.gif

[Scott26]

the soil temps is hovering mid 30s into the 40s.

I wouldn't be too surprised to see some areas exceeding 6", but I highly doubt anyone will reach a foot. And ground temps have nothing to do with limiting accumulations for this event...

 

 

Soil temps are in good shape so you guys are right. What I meant was on non-grassy areas the ground will be very warm and wet from this weekend and may keep the snow from accumulating on roads and driveways at least at first. That doesn't have to do with accumulation so I didn't make a very valid point there haha.

[Money]

FYI the LP down in New Mexico is 3-4 MB stronger than expected per the previous models.

 

And, I think we could easily see a band of 4-8 with isolated amounts higher. I think this thing bombs out pretty good, and we get a nice defo band. It seems like every model run it's increasing the QPF, and if this thing bombs out, like I expect it too, we could see some areas cashing in pretty good. Models always tend to be too warm in systems like these in the cold sector. 

[Tom]

On to the High Rez 00z NAM...

[Snowshoe]

Still snowing steadily. Very wet snow sticking to everything. About .25" so far.

[tim the weatherman]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ilx/wx/File.png

[Scott26]

basiclly andrew at the weather is well experienced in these setups what he says are a fact so take this with a grain of salt.

I'm not trying to bash Andrew at all. He is very knowledgeable and his write-ups are fantastic. I'm a huge fan. I just truly think that 10-12 even with isolated totals is far from the realm of possibility. We will see, but I like my conservative 2-4 inches with a isolated 5-6 inches in the heaviest band. With convective potential and the pure strength of this storm maybe we can get some higher amounts, but I still think marginal temps is really working against this storm.

[tim the weatherman]

I'm not trying to bash Andrew at all. He is very knowledgeable and his write-ups are fantastic. I'm a huge fan. I just truly think that 10-12 even with isolated totals is far from the realm of possibility. We will see, but I like my conservative 2-4 inches with a isolated 5-6 inches in the heaviest band. With convective potential and the pure strength of this storm maybe we can get some higher amounts, but I still think marginal temps is really working against this storm.

i agree but he also has said that the low will go through eastren illinois so the heaviest snow will be in northwest il into wisc.

[Money]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014122221/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f051.gif

[The Snowman]

Can you explain to me why you think areas will see maximum amounts to 10 to 12 inches? I'm thinking the hardest hit areas will probably only get 3-4 inches because of the very warm ground and marginal temps. I understand if temps are a big colder than progged and this is all snow some areas may get a bit more, but I still feel 3 or 4 inches is the ceiling for this event. Also a lot of these snow maps show 10:1 ratio and this event will likely be 8:1 at best.

I believe you may be thinking the ground temps have too big an influence. I've seen many storms where the ground temps were less than favorable, but heavy snows still fell. Per latest model guidance, especially hi-res guidance, 10-12 may be possible.

[Money]

SREF Plumes:

 

ORD: 

 

Mean: 1.17 (3 members around 2-3)

High: 7.64

Low: 0.00 

 

MSN:

 

Mean: 2.94

High: 12.57

Low: 0.00

 

8 members 4+

 

MKE: 

 

Mean: 0.98

High: 5.61

Low: 0.00

[gosaints]

SREF Plumes:

 

ORD:

 

Mean: 1.17 (3 members around 2-3)

High: 7.64

Low: 0.00

 

MSN:

 

Mean: 2.94

High: 12.57

Low: 0.00

 

8 members 4+

 

MKE:

 

Mean: 0.98

High: 5.61

Low: 0.00

Man weak sauce

[Money]

Seems like 21z SREF is pointing towards DBQ-OSH-GB as the biggest winners. At least 6-7 members showing 8+ with means over 4 for these areas. 

[The Snowman]

My implication was more-so based off of the hi-res guidance! especially as more moisture begins to enter the storm and OBS indicate the southern energy is a bit stronger than previously progged. In the end, it's just a matter of waiting & watching.

[Money]

Man weak sauce

 

Not really, just a lot of west members showing up still. 

[gosaints]

Well hi res nam initialized very well as regards to placement and strength of southern low

[Money]

For example, in DBQ 11 members are showing 6 or more inches of snow, 6 members are showing 0, and the other 3 are between 1-3. Mean in DBQ is about 4

[Money]

NAM is stronger/NW through 21, also slower.