Geos Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Glad to see that the warmest day is Saturday. Planning on being outside that day for awhile. LES only added up to 0.2" last night. On and off snow showers today were just light. FYI: tomorrow is the GFS' last day! Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 It going to be brutal here tonight. My temps are going to drop in the low -10's. The snowpack will help temps dive that low. There is around 5inches of snow on the ground now. Today was a true January, winter day with deep blue skies, frigid temps (12F high of the day) and a healthy snowpack. Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Temps tanking under arctic HP, calm winds, clear skies, fresh snow cover....brrrrr! Rochelle, IL already down to -9F, ORD down to 6F from 16F 2.5 hours ago. Prob tack on another sub-zero night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Coldest location will definitely be inland tonight.Was down to 5°, but then the wind kicked up. Back up to 9°. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 I'd say by the looks of these charts, Blocking will be developing by next weekend. It's no wonder temps are trending colder next weekend near the Lakes. Hopefully that system mid next week can get energized with blocking and cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 From Skilling: It's interesting that at the same time last year there was less ice coverage over the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Last week I mentioned the GFS was hinting at a weak storm developing near Japan, now in recent days it is beginning to show a wound up system to hit southern Japan on the 14th/15th. This would correlate with the storm showing up in the central CONUS mid next week. Lets see if the 00z Euro/GGEM continue to show this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 00z GGEM...there ya go...nice bowling ball low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Yawn wagons north. Still waiting for GFS to show something significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Yawn wagons north. Still waiting for GFS to show something significant.Shoulda went up to Traverse City, MI when you had the chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 GFS no show for next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Remember the 00z 12th Euro run of the 500mb maps I posted a couple days ago that had the trough hanging back in the 4 corners??? Now look at last nights run, big difference, right??? Model corrected farther east as expected and more in line with what a -AO/-NAO pattern looks like in the lower 48. 850's look like this Day 9, 13, and 15....big time cold on the way and probably some big snows for some as well in this type of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 East coaster after east coaster on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Wow that's looking impressive for the east coast. At least will be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 12z GGEM painting a MUCH different scenario and showing a major Lower Lakes Cutter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 as of the 12Z runs today, the GFS should be officially upgraded. don't like the look of what the new one is showing, especially if it is supposed to be more accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Ridiculous cold showing up for the month of February...once this pattern locks in, its got some legs....get ready to hunker down as the worst part of this Winter season is about to take hold. CFSv2 seeing the LRC's "cold phase" in mid/late February...if we have the blocking around, this is going to get serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 This brief surge of warm air feels incredible. Reminds me of Spring. I just wish it wasn't so ugly outside with everything being so brown and such. I honestly will trade the lack of snow for an active sever weather season. The feeling of seeing those monstrous supercells about to roll in is just incredible imo. I love blizzards, but man, looking at the GFS, it's just awful. Each and every run. I wish this forum wouldn't die down so much for the spring/summer time. That seems to be the only time Nebraska actually gets most of the action. I did like the Canadian/EURO. If we can just get some d*** blocking for once, maybe we can get a monster to track! February will be interesting I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 as of the 12Z runs today, the GFS should be officially upgraded. don't like the look of what the new one is showing, especially if it is supposed to be more accurateTo be honest, I really did not look at it that often except for the last couple smaller systems we had and from what I can remember(which sometimes is not much) it wasn't that reliable. I know the regular GFS did fairly well as did the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Once we get a major cutter to show up inside 120 hours then I think people would be able to latch on to your excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Yeah, I don't think anyone here gets very excited about a dry pattern with extreme cold in the heart of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 12z GGEM painting a MUCH different scenario and showing a major Lower Lakes Cutter...i wouldn't get too excited yet because look at how much that model has moved already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Yeah, I don't think anyone here gets very excited about a dry pattern with extreme cold in the heart of winter.Unless your name is Tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Unless your name is Tom I get excited about anything to do with Snow/Cold/Storm Systems, etc in the Winter months. With cold comes snow and everybody will be happy once it arrives. 'Nuff said on that. BTW, there were many doubters here that winter wasn't coming or it was letting go or it was going to be a bust. I, personally, called the Blocking that would re-develop that wasn't present and caused a "strung out" pattern. The pattern lining up now is ripe to brew some huge systems. Not sure yet where they line up, but over the next 2-3 weeks, we are going into an all out Winter pattern. If your a fan of the weather and admire what nature can do as a "whole", then your going to experience something that doesn't happen to often in our lifetimes. When all sudden done, this Winter will be a memorable one and may top the ranks for alot of this nation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 So far this winter has been a broken record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 To me it isn't winter without modest snow. So for me, no, winter has not really arrived save for a two inch slop fest in December. We'll see. Yes Tom lol, I should have gone but life's priorities and what not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 So far this winter has been a broken recordOk...you still have snow on the ground, right??? Enjoy it, more is on the way...be glad you don't live in SE NE or the southern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 To me it isn't winter without modest snow. So for me, no, winter has not really arrived save for a two inch slop fest in December. We'll see. Yes Tom lol, I should have gone but life's priorities and what not.Even though Gary Lezak disagreed with Blocking developing, its coming....I do think you will get a storm or two before Winter is over. Heck, if this Blocking pattern lasts into March, that is when you can cash in on some big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 JMA seeing the mid week storm system ejecting out of the Rockies Wed/Thu.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Ok...you still have snow on the ground, right??? Enjoy it, more is on the way...be glad you don't live in SE NE or the southern Plains.Of course I have snow on the ground that wont change I wouldnt think. Some dont get a kick out of just looking at the snow on the ground and seeing the temperature plummet. Some weather enthusiasts like to see snow fall from a real winter storm. As for next weeks storm... Obviously see it to believe it. The JMA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Of course I have snow on the ground that wont change I wouldnt think. Some dont get a kick out of just looking at the snow on the ground and seeing the temperature plummet. Some weather enthusiasts like to see snow fall from a real winter storm. As for next weeks storm... Obviously see it to believe it. The JMA!Contrary to popular belief, I, to, would rather see heavy snow falling from the Heavens above. Nature rarely gives "everyone" everything they want. Maybe, just maybe, next week's system could lay down a heavy snow band from the Rockies into the Lakes. The JMA model does very well in medium/long range forecasting and I have been following this model over the last month or so and it has done well with the pattern this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 I appreciate the enthusiasm. However, I have a big fundraising event in two weeks that depends on having plenty of snow on the ground. Seeing storm after storm and model run after model run fizzle to nothing is wearing down my enthusiasm. I had to shovel the backyard just to have a big enough snow hill for the kids to play on. That defines a crummy winter in my book. A quick run of the NOMADS Ensemble Probability Tool shows no more than a 5% chance of seeing measurable snow through Hr384 NOMADS Ensemble Probability Tool ============================================================================== Probability that the following event will occur: where the highest temperature is less than 2 degrees c. AND where the precipitation is greater than 0.1 in/6hr. AND where the 850 mb Temperature is less than 0c. At the location: Wisconsin Rapids, Alexander Field South Wood County Airport, WI, United States (44-21-33N, 089-50-13W) For the GENS model run at the given time: Jan 14, 2015 06z ============================================================================== Fcst Hr. |Date | Prob.% | Value Variance (native units the conditions listed above, in order) 006 Jan 14, 2015 12z 0% 1.1500 0.0000 1.3000 012 Jan 14, 2015 18z 0% 0.7500 0.0000 1.4000 018 Jan 15, 2015 00z 0% 0.8900 0.0000 1.3000 024 Jan 15, 2015 06z 0% 1.2500 0.0000 1.0000 030 Jan 15, 2015 12z 0% 1.5000 0.0000 1.5000 036 Jan 15, 2015 18z 0% 1.4500 0.0000 2.3000 042 Jan 16, 2015 00z 0% 1.8100 0.0000 9.4000 048 Jan 16, 2015 06z 0% 1.8500 0.0000 16.8000 054 Jan 16, 2015 12z 0% 10.1300 0.0000 16.9000 060 Jan 16, 2015 18z 0% 12.2500 0.0000 15.9000 066 Jan 17, 2015 00z 0% 12.9500 0.0000 10.7000 072 Jan 17, 2015 06z 0% 12.6000 0.0000 13.5000 078 Jan 17, 2015 12z 0% 10.4900 0.0000 12.6000 084 Jan 17, 2015 18z 0% 3.5500 0.0002 13.0000 090 Jan 18, 2015 00z 5% 4.5900 0.0002 9.6000 096 Jan 18, 2015 06z 5% 6.3900 0.0001 8.9000 102 Jan 18, 2015 12z 0% 8.7500 0.0000 10.2000 108 Jan 18, 2015 18z 0% 6.9500 0.0000 10.5000 114 Jan 19, 2015 00z 0% 6.5000 0.0000 13.5000 120 Jan 19, 2015 06z 0% 9.7100 0.0001 19.7000 126 Jan 19, 2015 12z 0% 14.6400 0.0000 22.9000 132 Jan 19, 2015 18z 0% 19.5500 0.0001 22.4000 138 Jan 20, 2015 00z 0% 19.8600 0.0001 17.6000 144 Jan 20, 2015 06z 5% 21.0600 0.0001 15.2000 150 Jan 20, 2015 12z 0% 20.4000 0.0001 12.1000 156 Jan 20, 2015 18z 5% 14.8500 0.0001 13.6000 162 Jan 21, 2015 00z 0% 13.7000 0.0000 9.5000 168 Jan 21, 2015 06z 0% 10.9900 0.0002 11.8000 174 Jan 21, 2015 12z 5% 10.0500 0.0001 11.1000 180 Jan 21, 2015 18z 0% 13.4000 0.0000 10.9000 186 Jan 22, 2015 00z 0% 13.1500 0.0000 10.4000 192 Jan 22, 2015 06z 0% 14.4100 0.0000 10.3000 198 Jan 22, 2015 12z 0% 14.2800 0.0001 11.4000 204 Jan 22, 2015 18z 0% 12.4900 0.0000 11.9000 210 Jan 23, 2015 00z 0% 12.5000 0.0001 15.1000 216 Jan 23, 2015 06z 0% 16.5000 0.0001 15.7000 222 Jan 23, 2015 12z 0% 19.0200 0.0000 20.2000 228 Jan 23, 2015 18z 0% 14.6200 0.0000 21.2000 234 Jan 24, 2015 00z 0% 13.8200 0.0000 18.9000 240 Jan 24, 2015 06z 0% 17.3100 0.0001 13.6000 246 Jan 24, 2015 12z 0% 19.3000 0.0001 11.3000 252 Jan 24, 2015 18z 0% 12.6900 0.0000 9.8000 258 Jan 25, 2015 00z 0% 11.1000 0.0001 12.8000 264 Jan 25, 2015 06z 0% 14.8100 0.0000 16.6000 270 Jan 25, 2015 12z 0% 17.7100 0.0001 19.6000 276 Jan 25, 2015 18z 0% 16.9000 0.0001 23.0000 282 Jan 26, 2015 00z 0% 20.9800 0.0000 27.1000 288 Jan 26, 2015 06z 0% 21.9100 0.0000 26.2000 294 Jan 26, 2015 12z 0% 22.3000 0.0000 25.1000 300 Jan 26, 2015 18z 0% 24.2200 0.0001 20.8000 306 Jan 27, 2015 00z 0% 20.6200 0.0000 20.8000 312 Jan 27, 2015 06z 0% 21.4000 0.0000 23.0000 318 Jan 27, 2015 12z 0% 22.3400 0.0000 20.4000 324 Jan 27, 2015 18z 0% 21.6500 0.0001 16.8000 330 Jan 28, 2015 00z 0% 19.1400 0.0001 19.8000 336 Jan 28, 2015 06z 0% 18.1900 0.0002 21.4000 342 Jan 28, 2015 12z 5% 21.6900 0.0001 21.1000 348 Jan 28, 2015 18z 0% 20.7000 0.0001 29.1000 354 Jan 29, 2015 00z 0% 18.5800 0.0001 28.7000 360 Jan 29, 2015 06z 0% 21.6100 0.0002 29.6000 366 Jan 29, 2015 12z 5% 26.9900 0.0002 25.7000 372 Jan 29, 2015 18z 5% 28.9000 0.0001 26.5000 378 Jan 30, 2015 00z 0% 27.3000 0.0001 23.8000 384 Jan 30, 2015 06z 0% 26.2300 0.0004 24.8000 WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Euro must be a dud since no one is talking about it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Euro must be a dud since no one is talking about it....It's AO forecast dipped to -4 and had the storm all the way down into the GOM...whacky run for sure...tons of suppression that run. @Snowshoe, I don't think the Upper Midwest/Lakes are going to be in a great location to see big storms especially if the AO/NAO dip negative. That usually drives the storm track farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Maps for the clipper next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 14, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Heart of the cold and a possible PV discharge into the Lakes late month???? Coldest air of the season coming, especially if there is a nice snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Heart of the cold and a possible PV discharge into the Lakes late month???? Coldest air of the season coming, especially if there is a nice snow cover. Hopefully that setup would clipper us to death. Best hope appears to be over performing clippers. I had high hopes that a SE ridge would have really flexed it's muscles. No such luck. WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Sorry, I couldn't resist 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Sorry, I couldn't resist I'll take that please. That's near a foot+ for me! Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Brutal last night. It dipped down to -7F and if it weren't for those darn clouds that rolled on in this morning, temps would have gotten colder. Also, a few snowshowers were reported this morning .The warm-up coming this weekend does not look that impressive. Mid 30's does it for me and that is considered above normal. Normal is 28F. They had me for upper 30s, but it trended colder. Also, snow chances increase for my area starting Sunday, as the clipper makes its way here. Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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