Tom Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 N IN gets a lot of rain this run, Snow from Gary, IN on NW this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 UKMET at HR 96: 1006 L over Detroit. About 8 MB stronger than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarcusBeier Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 SE MI looks good at this point, Detroit metro may get close to the rain/snow line but I think it will be a close call. NW of Detroit looking good for 3-6". Thank you..the one after this looks nuts..so far out tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 EURO 1st system (THU) http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012900/mc/ecmwf_tprecip_mc_9.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 EURO 1st system (THU) http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012900/mc/ecmwf_tprecip_mc_9.png I smell this area being a screw zone in between the two systems, hopefully I'm wrong and the second wave comes north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 2nd wave is weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Well the first wave was pretty disappointing, that's way north. Hope the second wave gives me a little more hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012900/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_13.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Welp, second wave was even worse. Lol. If that's how it ends up, that'll just be sickening, unless something magical happens with next weeks systems and eases the pain! L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Actually, I have no idea what it's trying to do. HR 78 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012900/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_14.png 12z HR 90 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012812/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_16.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 HR 84 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012900/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_15.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Actually, I have no idea what it's trying to do. HR 78 12z HR 90 It's throwing a high pressure over the area and killing the storm. DVN AFD mentioned that the GFS and NAM must have previously been doing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 HR 90 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012900/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_16.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 The difference between 12z an 0z is just odd for the EURO. It used to be the king on everything and rarely wavered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 HR 96 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012900/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_17.png Total precip http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012900/mc/ecmwf_tprecip_mc_17.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Much better in terms of QPF and strength but south of where we like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 The difference between 12z an 0z is just odd for the EURO. It used to be the king on everything and rarely wavered.It really hasn't been having that great of a winter. It's been struggling pretty bad with the clippers, which is about all we've had this year. Maybe it'll have a better handle now that we're headed in a little different pattern, but it definitely has had its fair share of struggles so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012900/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_16.png http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012812/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_18.png All you gotta do is look at those two maps and you'll see how consistent they are from it's last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Looks like the GGEM has had the best consistency handling the 2nd system so far. All models are slowing the arrival of the system for later on Saturday it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 EURO/GFS/NAM coming into agreement with a solid band of 6-10 inches in C IL/IN/OH. Looks like heaviest could miss Chicago to the south but plenty of time to keep an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Nice little NW trend on the 12z nam from 6z for this system. Brings the heaviest snow through Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Brings 4-6 to Chicago. 2-3 to Milwaukee and 1-2 for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Nice little NW trend on the 12z nam from 6z for this system. Brings the heaviest snow through Chicago. Yeah fills in the hole to. Solid 5-8 inches N IL/N IN/S MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yeah 4-6 inches. 1-2 inches from Thursday system if we even get any from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yeah 4-6 inches. 1-2 inches from Thursday system if we even get any from that. Yeah, should be interesting to see if this is a trend or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Yeah fills in the hole to. Solid 5-8 inches N IL/N IN/S MI. Nice! That should guarantee that I see Day 65 of snow cover. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 I have no clue what the models are doing right now. It seems every run is completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 Looks like GFS splits it into 2 parts or something. 6+ for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 I have no clue what the models are doing right now. It seems every run is completely different. Its laughable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 GFS snowfall map at 10:1 > 96 hours. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 12z GGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 GGEM http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014012912/east/cmc_precip_mslp_east_12.png http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014012912/east/cmc_precip_mslp_east_13.png http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014012912/east/cmc_precip_mslp_east_14.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 ECMWF is a nice hit for ORD. Farther NW http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012912/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_14.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 29, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012912/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_15.png http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014012912/mc/ecmwf_tprecip_mc_15.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 12z Euro...looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'll take that for a weekend system! Should be a 6" storm for northern IL. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 emsembles all over the place for both the weekend system and the following system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 By Friday 00z runs we should be getting better sampling and more consistency on the models. Today's operational models have shown some consistency on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 ORD SREF's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 29, 2014 Report Share Posted January 29, 2014 18z NAM a tad more bullish for N IL for Thursday's system...showing 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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