East Dubzz Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 GGEM snowfall. Wrong thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Wrong thread! I realized that. Anyway, I can't separate out the maps to just show this system. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 What a weird run on the 00z GFS, just look at that massive High Pressure in the Northeast/East Coast. Storms take tracks of least resistance and not directly in the path of a High Pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 I realized that. Anyway, I can't separate out the maps to just show this system.That's one thing I don't like about WxBell either! Tough when you have multiple systems like this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Not a good run on GFS. Way to far to the east. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 fyi majority of the ggem ensembles are farther west than the op ggem and stronger some sub 998 others around 1000 or so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=156&Day=0&RunTime=00&Type=pnm Link to GGEM ensembles. Couple sub 995 or so in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 UKMET: 1007 L about to enter into S/SW Ohio or so. Farthest N model of the night thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 ecmwf is looking quite a bit dif. Could be north of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 HR 138 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014013000/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_24.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 HR 144 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014013000/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_25.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 150 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014013000/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_26.png 156 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014013000/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_27.png More baby steps NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah not bad at all. Just like GFS lack of strong precip in cold-sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Need that high to be farther west or a stronger/neg tilt system in order to get this thing farther nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 00z Euro, taking a farther NW track through W Kentucky/SW OH sort of like the 18z GFS did earlier today. SE ridge flexing its muscles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 00z Euro, taking a farther NW track through W Kentucky/SW OH sort of like the 18z GFS did earlier today. SE ridge flexing its muscles. Need this thing to neg tilt or the high to be farther NW so it can move more to the NNE rather than the ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 It looks like the system in the beginning stages develops that comma shape but then looses it as it heads NE and gets sheared. Hopefully future runs continue strengthening of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Overall, not a bad suite of 00z runs tonight. We expected the correction farther NW in the models and its playing out. Every run from here on out is going to get more exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yup. GFS/ECMWF went from nothing to about 4-6 inches on GFS and 6+ on the euro (just south of chicago) All about trends. Still 144+ hours out and nothing is fully sampled yet. We've seen it before where models lose the big bombs in the medium range only to bring them back a few days before the storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 +1 Money, the GFS does that all the time I notice in the medium range when in the long range it had a big time storm. It has done that all year long with arctic outbreaks as well only to loose them in the medium range before bringing it back. I'd like to see what the GGEM was showing a few days back...absolute bomb of a GL Cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Still not a dang Colorado Low. I just don't know if we are even going to get one this season. That is really what my area needs to see a substantial snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Still not a dang Colorado Low. I just don't know if we are even going to get one this season. That is really what my area needs to see a substantial snowstorm. GGEM shows one at HR 192 this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 GFS getting more organized and stronger. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah my area really needs one of these things to turn into a colorado low, panfhandle hook, or grest lakes cutter. Starving for some moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Model mayhem will continue. Could track literally anywhere from west Virginia to chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 GFS getting more organized and stronger. Unbelievable. Many of the GFS Ensembles showed potential for early Tuesday, which seems to be the current timeframe of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 GFS getting more organized and stronger. Unbelievable.Models are all over the place so it's not too surprising. This one has potential that's for sure. Until we start seeing some consistency any solution is up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 6+ for Chicago again on 12z GFS for this thing. The blocking out in Minny and Dakotas were stronger which kept this from becoming a big cutter. Was stronger than 6z (blocking was) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 12z GFS showing 8-10" for ORD from this system...starting to show consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 GFS starting to show a nice comma shape and healthy looking defo band which leads me to believe that future runs may become even better. This storm is showing signs of having it all...wind, heavy snow and LehS. Temps on 12z GFS run showed low 20's and a howling NE wind off the lake for about 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 I believe 12z GGEM is pretty far SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 30, 2014 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Ya, 12z GGEM went SE and develops a double barrel low off the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 there is no way that this storm to head far se the ggem need in future runs will hop on board with the gfsand to see what the euro does too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 EURO 1004 L in W. OH Chicago gets hit decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014013012/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_23.png http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014013012/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_24.png http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014013012/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_25.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 0.5+ for Chicago. We are making baby steps NW. Just need a stronger low to pull it more northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 That's a laugher for me. What gives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Here's the earlier frames http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014013012/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_21.png http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014013012/east/ecmwf_slp_precip_east_22.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted January 30, 2014 Report Share Posted January 30, 2014 Can you post QPF to when it's available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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