Geos Posted October 22, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 22, 2015 That's very nice. Are 4 and 3.4 still forecast to climb?http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml Little more with 4. Little more with 3.4 also. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 22, 2015 Report Share Posted October 22, 2015 Thanks!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 22, 2015 Report Share Posted October 22, 2015 Question, is there any site that has just a raw ocean surface temperature archive with a really long history? Say maybe 1950 or so? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 22, 2015 Report Share Posted October 22, 2015 That's very nice. Are 4 and 3.4 still forecast to climb?Most models have them peaking at 2.5C. Here is the current NINO 3.2 Index value... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 25, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 25, 2015 That warm pool west of Mexico is so substantial looking it almost half the size of the El Niño covered area! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 25, 2015 Report Share Posted October 25, 2015 On Weather Geeks this morning on TWC they were talking about how strong this is and keep comparing it to 82-83 and 97-98. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 25, 2015 Report Share Posted October 25, 2015 On Weather Geeks this morning on TWC they were talking about how strong this is and keep comparing it to 82-83 and 97-98.Yeah. I laugh every time I hear those 2 years used as climo for what this winter will be like. Nothing has been similar pretty much anywhere since August but they can beat the dead horse all they want and keep posting the standard nino temperature maps for this winter. Lol. I'll be laughing when they're wrong. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted October 25, 2015 Report Share Posted October 25, 2015 Yeah. I laugh every time I hear those 2 years used as climo for what this winter will be like. Nothing has been similar pretty much anywhere since August but they can beat the dead horse all they want and keep posting the standard nino temperature maps for this winter. Lol. I'll be laughing when they're wrong.This nino has a lot more in common with 97-98 than 82-83 IMO. The next couple weeks will tell us a lot about what might happen though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 25, 2015 Report Share Posted October 25, 2015 This nino has a lot more in common with 97-98 than 82-83 IMO. The next couple weeks will tell us a lot about what might happen though.How so???SST comparisons October 24th, 1997 vs Current... http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/1997/anomnight.10.24.1997.gif http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.10.22.2015.gif In 1997, ENSO 1.2 Region was torching and main warmth much farther East. On top of that, it had a lot more colder waters in the N PAC. Lastly, the overall warmth in the equatorial Pacific was higher back in 1997. Look at those anamolies...of the charts. Stark differences TBH. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 25, 2015 Report Share Posted October 25, 2015 Not even remotely close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 26, 2015 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 How so??? SST comparisons Current vs October 24th, 1997... http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/1997/anomnight.10.24.1997.gif http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.10.22.2015.gif In 1997, ENSO 1.2 Region was torching and main warmth much farther East. On top of that, it had a lot more colder waters in the N PAC. Lastly, the overall warmth in the equatorial Pacific was higher back in 1997. Look at those anamolies...of the charts. Stark differences TBH.Well said tom, I can't believe the difference. There are two key points that says we are about to experience something we never had before. One, all El Niños are different....and two there just isn't enough data to compare. I'm excited to see how things play out. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 26, 2015 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 SST in R1.2 dropping like a rock. Super basin-wide modoki hybrid by December? Makes for a crazy sounding El Niño description huh? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 26, 2015 Report Share Posted October 26, 2015 SST in R1.2 dropping like a rock. Super basin-wide modoki hybrid by December? Makes for a crazy sounding El Niño description huh?Yup, supposed to start tanking according to the Climate models. You can already see some cold eddy's showing up near the South American coastline. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.10.26.2015.gif Last 7 days showing the fast cooling... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png Also, more importantly, ENSO 3.4 Region may have reached its peaked about a week ago. It has since dropped off from its 2.5C peak... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted October 27, 2015 Was just about to mention that pull back of warmer waters near the continent, Tom. Now focused between the Galapagos and IDL. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 29, 2015 Report Share Posted October 29, 2015 ENSO 1.2 Region dropping like a rock...this is a good sign to see a colder December. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png ENSO 3.4 Region has cooled slightly to 2.2C... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 29, 2015 Report Share Posted October 29, 2015 ENSO 1.2 Region dropping like a rock...this is a good sign to see a colder December. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png ENSO 3.4 Region has cooled slightly to just below 2.2C... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.pngYup. I can hear the sound of people's forecasts busting as we speak. :-) Even mine is looking weaker now. I have December at average temperatures down here. I don't know if we'll even be as warm as average now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 30, 2015 Report Share Posted October 30, 2015 Yup. I can hear the sound of people's forecasts busting as we speak. :-) Even mine is looking weaker now. I have December at average temperatures down here. I don't know if we'll even be as warm as average now.I wouldn't get that excited about it. I hope you are right, believe me, but I wouldnt get overly excited about a quick little change in SST's. I'm hoping it will continue dropping as well but who knows. Next week it could jump back up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted October 30, 2015 Report Share Posted October 30, 2015 I wouldn't get that excited about it. I hope you are right, believe me, but I wouldnt get overly excited about a quick little change in SST's. I'm hoping it will continue dropping as well but who knows. Next week it could jump back up.Yeah. I probably made a classic "foot in mouth" statement right there. I think I'm suffering from Niño hype fatigue syndrome today. Lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted October 30, 2015 Report Share Posted October 30, 2015 Yeah. I probably made a classic "foot in mouth" statement right there. I think I'm suffering from Niño hype fatigue syndrome today. Lol.Lmao. I think its time for La Nina to form!Then again, that southern jet might wallop your area pretty good this winter! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 1, 2015 Report Share Posted November 1, 2015 I found this chart comparison to previous El Nino's (both strong/moderate) and when comparing all of them, only this year's El Nino will peak earlier rather than later during Winter. There is no good comparison if you were to use that as an analog. Again, finding that this year's El Nino is indeed in uncharted territory. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 2, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 2, 2015 I found this chart comparison to previous El Nino's (both strong/moderate) and when comparing all of them, only this year's El Nino will peak earlier rather than later during Winter. There is no good comparison if you were to use that as an analog. Again, finding that this year's El Nino is indeed in uncharted territory. Nice graph. As it currently looking we will fall short of the 97-98 el Niño and possibly even the 82-83. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 2, 2015 Report Share Posted November 2, 2015 @ Nino graph Not to nit-pick, but shouldn't those dates on the right be 1983 & 1998 respectively since that's what the right half of the graph is, or at least 1982-83, etc. The 2015 for the current yr Nino up until January looks correct. And, yes, it is a very nice visual aid to see the comparison. Thx Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 5, 2015 Report Share Posted November 5, 2015 ENSO 3.4 Region has popped to it's highest value yet... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png ENSO 1.2 has also warmed quite a bit... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png SST anamolies over the last 7 days show this trend... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 5, 2015 Report Share Posted November 5, 2015 Overall, the Pacific still looks like a basin-wide modiki El NINO...doesn't even compare to 1997 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 5, 2015 Report Share Posted November 5, 2015 Nice. I'm thinking that this is the last push for 1.2. Think we see 3 and 3.4 warm a bit more or hold there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 5, 2015 Author Report Share Posted November 5, 2015 One thing that I have looked at is the QBO index. In the western Lakes I have found a strong correlation between the best wintry and the positive vs. negative phase of the QBO (Quasi-biennial oscillation).When the index (measurement taken at 30hPa) emerges from being in the deep negative side right before winter starts, the winter are usually a bit harsher or at least snowier than normal. Same goes if the index is positive going into winter. When the index is deep in the negative you tend to get benign winters ~ like 11-12. Right now we're quite positive, in a low solar stage, and with the dominating warm northern Pacific still. So I would go against el Niño ruling the roost on the weather pattern all winter long.As of October the index is 13.38. October of 2013 it was 11.69 for comparison. October of 2014 it was strongly negative at -23.86 and I think it weren't for the warm northern Pacific the Midwest winter would have been much calmer and milder than it was. Last winter was quite a bit drier in this region, and the negative QBO was partly a factor. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted November 5, 2015 Report Share Posted November 5, 2015 One thing that I have looked at is the QBO index. In the western Lakes I have found a strong correlation between the best wintry and the positive vs. negative phase of the QBO (Quasi-biennial oscillation).When the index (measurement taken at 30hPa) emerges from being in the deep negative side right before winter starts, the winter are usually a bit harsher or at least snowier than normal. Same goes if the index is positive going into winter. When the index is deep in the negative you tend to get benign winters ~ like 11-12. Right now we're quite positive, in a low solar stage, and with the dominating warm northern Pacific still. So I would go against el Niño ruling the roost on the weather pattern all winter long.As of October the index is 13.38. October of 2013 it was 11.69 for comparison. October of 2014 it was strongly negative at -23.86 and I think it weren't for the warm northern Pacific the Midwest winter would have been much calmer and milder than it was. Last winter was quite a bit drier in this region, and the negative QBO was partly a factor. qbo_2005-2015.pngThis is a part of the equation that I'm struggling to learn about. Definitely could be a viable explanation for why the AO never went negative last year even though SAI said it should have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 5, 2015 Report Share Posted November 5, 2015 ENSO 3.4 Region torching...reaching 2.71C above normal... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png Notice where the warmest waters are in the central Pacific. This looks to me like there will be tremendous upward motion generated by these warm waters and increase convection north of Hawaii down the road where those colder waters are building. Most global models have the main trough developing in this region. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 5, 2015 Report Share Posted November 5, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png Crazy jumps 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 9, 2015 Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 ENSO 3.4 Region has tied the record of 2.8C... Here is a link to see the SST Anomalies trend... http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/ENSO/SST_Plots/Weekly_Loop.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 9, 2015 Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 Impressive basin wide torch in the nino. Also watching some cooling taking place in the northeast pacific. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 9, 2015 Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 Trends are still moving the warmest waters into the central equatorial Pacific... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/sstaanim.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 9, 2015 Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 ENSO 3.4 Region has tied the record of 2.8C... Here is a link to see the SST Anomalies trend... http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/ENSO/SST_Plots/Weekly_Loop.html EDIT! @ Tom - beat me to it - ha! Focus of greatest departures have been migrating westward as you watch that time-loop over the last several months. I've posted before that I'm not aware of any Big Dog storms occurring for our region (Chicago and S. Lakes) during a "strong" nino. Could this be the year when we see one? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 9, 2015 Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 EDIT! @ Tom - beat me to it - ha! Focus of greatest departures have been migrating westward as you watch that time-loop over the last several months. I've posted before that I'm not aware of any Big Dog storms occurring for our region (Chicago and S. Lakes) during a "strong" nino. Could this be the year when we see one?The biggest non Lake effect event I can find for the strong Nino years was on February 26th 1966 when 17.9" of snow fell in the Bay City/Saginaw area and just under a foot in Detroit. There were also storms (non lake effect) of over 6" in December of 1965, March of 1998. In the past it looks like the chance for a storm came later in the winter vs early winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 9, 2015 Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 The biggest non Lake effect event I can find for the strong Nino years was on February 26th 1966 when 17.9" of snow fell in the Bay City/Saginaw area and just under a foot in Detroit. There were also storms (non lake effect) of over 6" in December of 1965, March of 1998. In the past it looks like the chance for a storm came later in the winter vs early winter Nice find, and you're 100% correct about the chances being the best in late winter, heck even early calendar spring. Was late March of '83 when Flint had a solid 10" storm. I was there. Also caught the March of '98 bliz when I was living in Michiana. What I really meant to say is that if you take a look at the TOP 5 (or maybe even 10) storms of all time for Chicago and/or SMI, you won't find any that I am aware of during a strong nino. That's what I meant by Big Dog. Having said that, bliz of '99, '78, & '67 all occurred with a +QBO which we have this year, so we got that going in our favor. Still looking for that "area wide" 30 inch storm - LOL (but even a large coverage area 24+ event would be amazing. Jan '78 came the closest and due to a really nice existing base had the effects of a storm of that magnitude (24-30") across much of SMI. Just see this video. The best I know of that gives one a proper perspective of the event's magnitude: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YuAMWRtT4NY Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 9, 2015 Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 I have a update on big strong El Nino years. Above I mentioned the Feb 25th storm but left out the March 17 1973 storm when 21.3" fell in the Bay City/Saginaw area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 9, 2015 Report Share Posted November 9, 2015 EDIT! @ Tom - beat me to it - ha! Focus of greatest departures have been migrating westward as you watch that time-loop over the last several months. I've posted before that I'm not aware of any Big Dog storms occurring for our region (Chicago and S. Lakes) during a "strong" nino. Could this be the year when we see one?We are pretending that nino 1.2 arent torching as well.. Second warmest october ever in that region? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 10, 2015 Report Share Posted November 10, 2015 We are pretending that nino 1.2 arent torching as well.. Second warmest october ever in that region?More importantly, it's central based rather than east-based. Bigger implications as far as where the energy will be released into the atmosphere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 10, 2015 Report Share Posted November 10, 2015 1.2 is gonna rise Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 10, 2015 Report Share Posted November 10, 2015 1.2 is gonna riseIt's not what your Go-to CFSv2 is forecasting and every other global model...just saying... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino12Mon.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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