PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

(Past 8 runs) North Pacific view

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Only from Jim and The Day After Tomorrow. 

Pretty sure Jake Gyllenhaal is Jim and Jim Bastardi’s love child.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

(Past 4 runs) North Pacific view

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

(Past 8 runs)

[Snownerd3000]

Those are two monster ridges. 

[Gradient Keeper]

SO much rain for the Central Washington Coast northward into BC. We do not want to see this, so root for blocking.

[Everleigh]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Quick poll just for fun... you have to pick one:

• This upcoming pattern change leads to amazing cold and snow in 10 days in early December... but then its raining and in the 50s for the week of Christmas.
• This upcoming pattern change fails to deliver any cold or snow in early December... but it leads to even more amazing cold and snow during in the second half of December focused on the week of Christmas.

2

A white Christmas just seem so magical to me, and I know I could use a little extra magic and joy this year...

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

(Past 8 runs)

[Cloud]

Speaking of pecan pie. Happy thanksgiving everyone! From ours to yours! 
 

Now let’s get this show on the road and bring some cold and snow here! 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7.5 Energy cutting off shifting southwestward.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

(Past 8 runs) North America view

[TT-SEA]

Pretty obvious that the 00Z GFS is going to be really good after day 10. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8.5

(Past 8 runs)

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8.5

(Past 8 runs)

More ridging northwest of Alaska 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 8.5

(Past 8 runs)

The trough dropping south on us looks a lot tighter on this run.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er Would like to see a stronger ridge merger, but this is decent for now.

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty obvious that the 00Z GFS is going to be really good after day 10. 

The obvious theme? Chasing the carrot beyond day 10?

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty obvious that the 00Z GFS is going to be really good after day 10. 

I’m not sure about that. It looks very progressive.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er.5'er

[Gradient Keeper]

I just don't think Day 10+ is going where we want. The ridge place and amplification with low heights in Alaska is not looking favorable.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

I just don't think Day 10+ is going where we want. The ridge place and amplification with low heights in Alaska is not looking favorable.

Looks incredibly progressive unfortunately.

[Snownerd3000]

Check this out. Here is the euro weekly control from last Thursday. 

[Snownerd3000]

Here is the control from Monday. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

We managed to get the cut-off low more favorable, but the ridge offshore needs to back to the west a bit with a strong ridge merger. This run was not far from seeing that, but even if we do see that the flow is a touch too progressive. Still plenty of time for this to change and a ton of potential remains. Will it just remain as potential or will it be realized. No idea.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Day 10

Troughs are spinning out of Alaska, and some how there’s still a trough there.

[Gradient Keeper]

Onto the ensembles and EURO later

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Here is the control from Monday. 

That would be amazing!

[Cloud]

King Euro will deliver... if he decides to initialize tonight. 

[TT-SEA]

While the 00Z GFS is still very wet to the north over the next 10 days... there seems to be more pronounced shadowing around Vancouver BC and Whatcom County than previous runs.    Obviously the heavy rain in the mountains still has to flow out but it might spare them another disaster up there. 

 

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

While the 00Z GFS is still very wet to the north over the next 10 days... there seems to be more pronounced shadowing around Vancouver BC and Whatcom County than previous runs.    Obviously the heavy rain in the mountains still has to flow out but it might spare them another disaster up there. 

 

This needs to be south of the columbia tbh. 

[Snownerd3000]

6 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

That would be amazing!

That is one Arctic Hadouken 

[Cloud]

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

That is one Arctic Hadouken 

Ryu > Ken.

Fight me. 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEFS Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 meh

[MossMan]

Raining! 
.01” on the day. 
42 degrees. 

[Cloud]

Just now, MossMan said:

Raining! 
.01” on the day. 
42 degrees. 

Starting here as well. 

[Gradient Keeper]

9:16 PM Radar Update

[RentonHill]

@DJ Droppin