September 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/pngs/20150922/20150922_west_none.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Don't worry everyone! One tiny area of the NW has near average rainfall! 

[TT-SEA]

Don't worry everyone! One tiny area of the NW has near average rainfall! 

 

 

If you look at the bigger picture... from Seattle northward its been normally wet over the last couple years extending up the BC coast.

 

Not one tiny area.    But  rather the line between generally normal precipitation conditions and the ongoing drought over CA and OR and eastern WA.   You are on the wrong side of the line!

 

Nonetheless... in that tiny area that you mention there are 3+ million people.   And don't forget the 2+ million people in the Vancouver BC area where rainfall has also been normal.    

[BLI snowman]

My area is not 'well' below normal.     Probably close to normal or maybe slightly below.   So 80 inches of rain in the last year instead of 90 inches is considered a drought?        

 

Not to mention that the most recent 2 months have been very wet.

 

http://s14.postimg.org/whysyys0w/anomimage_1.jpg

 

SEA had one of the wettest months of August ever and my area was pounded in the same manner.

 

The lack of snow is the big issue... not the lack of precipitation.    

 

Tim + point = Missed

 

I believe that's called the yuppiedumdum formula. 

[TT-SEA]

Tim + point = Missed

 

I believe that's called the yuppiedumdum formula. 

 

 

Nope.  Fact is that from Seattle to Bellingham and northward into BC it has not been dry.    There has been periods of dry and periods of wet but the last couple years have been just fine compared to normal.    And the last year as well.   

 

The line is drawn along the Cascades through SW WA.    To the north and west of that line it just has NOT been that dry overall.   

 

Last year SEA had the wettest Feb-Aug period in history.     And is running normal for the last 2 years.

[BLI snowman]

Nope.  Fact is that from Seattle to Bellingham and northward into BC it has not been dry.   

 

The line is drawn along the Cascades through SW WA.    To the north and west of that line it just has NOT been that dry overall.   

 

Last year SEA had the wettest Feb-Aug period in history.     And is running normal for the last 2 years.

 

Like I said, it's the combination of drier than average conditions across a majority of the region, several years of low snowpack including a historically bad winter last year, and historic warmth which further stresses and dries out the soils and vegeation. Your area is in fact in a drought, which contradicts your original assertion. 

[TT-SEA]

SEA is almost perfectly normal for the last year.

 

BLI is running just about 1 inch below normal for the last year.

 

WFO SEA is running about an 1 inch above normal for the last year.

 

 

From Seattle northward into BC is the place to be if you dislike drought!   Now we just need to get some mountain snow.  

[BLI snowman]

As you can see, the warm/dry spring and the ensuing pathetic snowmelt were the main culprits for the WA portion of the drought this year

 

https://www.flickr.com/photos/ecologywa/21669879121/in/album-72157656690948883/

 

And further exasperated by the hot summer.

[TT-SEA]

Like I said, it's the combination of drier than average conditions across a majority of the region, several years of low snowpack including a historically bad winter last year, and historic warmth which further stresses and dries out the soils and vegeation. Your area is in fact in a drought, which contradicts your original assertion. 

 

Normal precipitation for the last 2 years and 10 inches of rain in the last 2 months... call it whatever you want but its not dry here at all and the trees look very healthy.   It was dry for a period in June and July but no longer.   By definition of normal precipitation in King County... we are perfectly normal for the last year.   And way above normal for the previous 5 years.    

 

Too bad we have to be lumped in with the real drought conditions to our south and to our east.     

 

Hope all the rain this winter goes through CA and OR.  

[Jesse]

As you can see, the warm/dry spring and the ensuing pathetic snowmelt were the main culprits for the WA portion of the drought this year

 

https://www.flickr.com/photos/ecologywa/21669879121/in/album-72157656690948883/

 

And further exasperated by the hot summer.

I'm assuming you mean exacerbated.

 

It exasperates me when people mix those up.

[TT-SEA]

Still looking like a great weekend per the 12Z ECMWF.    A little too cool for my liking... but sunny and dry.   

[BLI snowman]

Normal precipitation for the last 2 years and 10 inches of rain in the last 2 months... call it whatever you want but its not dry here at all and the trees look very healthy.   It was dry for a period in June and July but no longer.   By definition of normal precipitation in King County... we are perfectly normal for the last year.   And way above normal for the previous 5 years.    

 

Too bad we have to be lumped in with the real drought conditions to our south and to our east.     

 

Hope all the rain this winter goes through CA and OR.  

 

I'm sure it will be much wetter in CA and OR relative to average. With a stronger Nino that's a virtual guarantee. 

[BLI snowman]

I'm assuming you mean exacerbated.

 

It exasperates me when people mix those up.

 

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/exasperate

 

It has two definitions actually, though the second is largely outmoded and rarely ever used anymore.

[TT-SEA]

Also mention that it was great boating year with perfectly normal lake levels on both Lake Washington and Lake Sammamish.

 

And even though the river level was a little low... the kids were still able to tube on the Snoqualmie River numerous times this summer with no problem at all.  Given the lack of snow in the mountains... we did not think tubing on the river was an option but it was still great.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looks great overall for the next 10 days.  Love that troughing might finally become re-established in the East.   That always helps us.

 

Maybe some more 80-degree spikes at PDX as well.   

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015092412!!chart.gif

[ShawniganLake]

Nope. Fact is that from Seattle to Bellingham and northward into BC it has not been dry. There has been periods of dry and periods of wet but the last couple years have been just fine compared to normal. And the last year as well.

 

The line is drawn along the Cascades through SW WA. To the north and west of that line it just has NOT been that dry overall.

 

Last year SEA had the wettest Feb-Aug period in history. And is running normal for the last 2 years.

Hmm. All of southern BC is still at level 2 or 3 out of 4 for drought, with the exception of the Far East, close to the Rockies. Up until the rains of early September, most of the area was between level 3 and 4 for most of the summer. Mountain snowpack matters, not just in the mountains, because water flows downhill.

[Jesse]

This weekend is looking great.

[TT-SEA]

Hmm. All of southern BC is still at level 2 or 3 out of 4 for drought, with the exception of the Far East, close to the Rockies. Up until the rains of early September, most of the area was between level 3 and 4 for most of the summer. Mountain snowpack matters, not just in the mountains, because water flows downhill.

Drought conditions are supposed to be based primarily on soil conditions. And it was very dry all over for a time earlier this summer.

[Abbotsford_wx]

It's still fairly dry up here. Not quite record dry, but I'm tracking 8" below last year.

[Jesse]

The models are struggling mightily right now. The 12Z EURO ensemble mean actually keeps the mean trough position over the PNW through day 10.

 

I'm thinking we could be seeing the beginnings of a pattern change toward more GOA ridging and a removal of that persistent Alaskan vortex, as advertised by the Euro weeklies. Large scale changes like that usually give the models fits, at least initially.

[TT-SEA]

It's still fairly dry up here. Not quite record dry, but I'm tracking 8" below last year.

 

 

Tough to find this data!    But it appears that Vancouver BC has had 1473mm of rain in the last year and normal is 1457mm.    So slightly above normal for the last year.   And I think the prior year was above normal.   

[TT-SEA]

The ensemble mean always looks more smooth and less amplified in the long range because its a blend of many solutions.   After a week it just gives an idea on the position of the major players and not what will be the actual configuration.    Overall... the ensemble mean has the same basic trough positions as the operational run at 240 hours.   Devil is in the details!    

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geopotential%20at%20500hPa!North%20America!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2015092412!!chart.gif

[Abbotsford_wx]

Tough to find this data!    But it appears that Vancouver BC has had 1473mm of rain in the last year and normal is 1457mm.    So slightly above normal for the last year.   And I think the prior year was above normal.   

 

[stuffradio]

I've had more rain this August/September than last year.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful day... warm and slightly humid with sunshine and alto-cumulus clouds.

 

Somehow that entire plume of moisture just offshore and heading into BC is going to just about completely fall apart before it arrives here and leave us with another nice day tomorrow (just cooler).   The satellite image makes it look like we are in for serious rain here... but all the models show virtually nothing making it.

 

http://s7.postimg.org/p6qw431rv/IR4_NW.gif

[Jesse]

The past two days have seens some dramatic changes to the small maples and aspen trees. There is a slight depression to the south of me where it will fog up first, and most of the smaller trees there are showing some pretty vibrant colors. The recent rains, bouts of warmth, and cool nights are going to make for some amazing color later. I am hoping to get a bike ride to enjoy to colors next week.

It's been an amazing month overall, thus far. This weekend looks to continue that trend with some sesonably mild days and cool nights. Shaping up to be our best color season in several years at this point.

[Jesse]

DPs in the upper 40s to low 50s at SEA. That's some Mississippi style sultryness.

[TT-SEA]

A pleasant 74 here with a dewpoint of 55.

 

Feels a little humid compared to dewpoints in the low 40s recently.

 

Those are coming back for the weekend.   

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS is dry and pleasant for the next 10 days.  

 

About the best you can get this time of year.

[Front Ranger]

Not to mention historic, tree and salmon killing drought for places outside of that 50 square mile area. A little something for everyone!

Yeah...but we were talking about that specific area. Focus on the positive!

[Abbotsford_wx]

I've had more rain this August/September than last year.

 

I only had .72" last August... about a third of normal, so that's not hard to beat.

[seattleweatherguy]

18Z GFS is dry and pleasant for the next 10 days.  

 

About the best you can get this time of year.

Lovely looks great dont mind a dry and warm fall if we can score on snow this winter somehow.

[Tyler Mode]

I'm happy to present to you Day 1 in Alaska! This part of the trip encompasses traveling from Anchorage to Homer (see map).

https://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landscapes/Alaska-Day-1

[Tyler Mode]

Day 2 in Alaska.  I was delayed out of my hotel that morning...and it paid off!  An amazing display of what I call "Jesus Rays" developed over Homer, Alaska.

https://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landscapes/Alaska-Day-2-2015

 

[TT-SEA]

Day 2 in Alaska.  I was delayed out of my hotel that morning...and it paid off!  An amazing display of what I call "Jesus Rays" developed over Homer, Alaska.

 

https://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landscapes/Alaska-Day-2-2015

 

 

I was thinking today was your first day based on your post above.   When was day 1?

[Tyler Mode]

Sorry...two weeks ago now.  September 9th was my first day up there.  I'll be sure to include that

I was thinking today was your first day based on your post above.   When was day 1?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just saw a few lightning flashes and heard some thunder...

[TT-SEA]

Looking ahead after the front this evening... the 12Z ECMWF only shows a single band of rain moving through on Friday morning and then nice next weekend as well.    Very enjoyable pattern.      

 

 

ECMWF detailed maps did a great job once again... this post was from last weekend.

[Front Ranger]

Beautiful day... warm and slightly humid with sunshine and alto-cumulus clouds.

 

Somehow that entire plume of moisture just offshore and heading into BC is going to just about completely fall apart before it arrives here and leave us with another nice day tomorrow (just cooler). The satellite image makes it look like we are in for serious rain here... but all the models show virtually nothing making it.

 

http://s7.postimg.org/p6qw431rv/IR4_NW.gif

Oops.

[TT-SEA]

Oops.

No... its not much of anything and moving through quickly just like the models showed.