September 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice little rain band moving through the valley this morning. 

[Front Ranger]

No... its not much of anything and moving through quickly just like the models showed.

 

.05-.15" for much of the Olympia to Seattle area this morning. Wouldn't call that "virtually nothing".

 

And now the Willamette Valley is getting a very healthy band of rain moving through. The moisture plume did not completely fall apart.

[TT-SEA]

.05-.15" for much of the Olympia to Seattle area this morning. Wouldn't call that "virtually nothing".

 

And now the Willamette Valley is getting a very healthy band of rain moving through. The moisture plume did not completely fall apart.

 

 

OK... I said it looked like a situation where we would see serious rain with a healthy moisture plume but the models showed very little making it here and it would be moving through rapidly.

 

.05-.15 is very little compared to a heavy rain situation.   It played out just like the models showed.  I was just commenting on how if I just looked at the IR satellite yesterday then I would guess a big rain event was on the way.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

.05-.15" for much of the Olympia to Seattle area this morning. Wouldn't call that "virtually nothing".

 

And now the Willamette Valley is getting a very healthy band of rain moving through. The moisture plume did not completely fall apart.

 

Looked like Tacoma had around .25" and I saw McMinnville picked up 0.19" in an hour earlier this morning. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OK... I said it looked like a situation where we would see serious rain with a healthy moisture plume but the models showed very little making it here and it would be moving through rapidly.

 

.05-.15 is very little compared to a heavy rain situation.   It played out just like the models showed.

 

The models showed no rain here. It will probably rain for the next couple of hours. 

[TT-SEA]

The models showed no rain here. It will probably rain for the next couple of hours. 

 

 

Exciting!    Whatever.  

 

I said last weekend that the ECMWF showed a single band of rain moving through on Friday morning and then a nice weekend.    

 

The models yesterday showed the front basically falling apart... it survived a little bit more than that but its already gone up here.   Basically nothing compared to the other heavy rain events up here since late July.  

[TT-SEA]

LOVE the 12Z models that have come out so far.

 

The GFS and Canadian look awesome.   Lots of dry weather and sunshine all the way through the long range.

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

Just checked... the almost always accurate ECMWF detailed map from last night showed exactly what is happening now.

 

http://s12.postimg.org/qkxv6p1bh/Untitled2.jpg

 

http://s11.postimg.org/j45r5ormr/Untitled1.jpg

[Deweydog]

Good lord.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Exciting!    Whatever.  

 

I said last weekend that the ECMWF showed a single band of rain moving through on Friday morning and then a nice weekend.    

 

The models yesterday showed the front basically falling apart... it survived a little bit more than that but its already gone up here.   Basically nothing compared to the other heavy rain events up here since late July.  

 

Well it's passed through your area so there! lol 

 

Here it is a much needed respite from the continued drought conditions. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's kind of sad Tim is turning into a complete troll. :/

[TT-SEA]

Well it's passed through your area so there! lol 

 

Here it is a much needed respite from the continued drought conditions. 

 

 

Awesome!   

[TT-SEA]

It's kind of sad Tim is turning into a complete troll. :/

 

Tell us about the CFS again... for the millionth time.  

[TT-SEA]

SSTA update... looks like the PDO is falling to me.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.9.24.2015.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like between .1-.3" of rain across the Willamette Valley this morning. 

[Tyler Mode]

Day 3 in Alaska, September 11th, 2015...Whittier all the way down to Valdez...an amazing drive along the Glenn and Richardson Highways...the fall colors were out in full force, especially with the cloudy skies saturating the colors.

https://weathercrazy.smugmug.com/Landscapes/Alaska-Day-3-2015

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That is so beautiful. 

[Jesse]

That is so beautiful.

Looks cold, damp and dreary to me. NOT FUN for water sports which represent the pinnacle of human enjoyment for everyone.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks cold, damp and dreary to me. NOT FUN for water sports which represent the pinnacle of human enjoyment for everyone.

 

I don't even like watersports, unless you count fishing as a water sport. 

[BLI snowman]

Looks like between .1-.3" of rain across the Willamette Valley this morning. 

 

.31" at BLI, .27" at PDX.

 

Not bad for a front that totally dissolved over us leaving us with nothing.

[Front Ranger]

Exciting!    Whatever.  

 

I said last weekend that the ECMWF showed a single band of rain moving through on Friday morning and then a nice weekend.    

 

The models yesterday showed the front basically falling apart... it survived a little bit more than that but its already gone up here.   Basically nothing compared to the other heavy rain events up here since late July.  

 

69% of the time, the models are right every time.

[Front Ranger]

Just checked... the almost always accurate ECMWF detailed map from last night showed exactly what is happening now.

 

 

It was more the way you interpreted/described things: Somehow that entire plume of moisture just offshore and heading into BC is going to just about completely fall apart before it arrives here and leave us with another nice day tomorrow (just cooler). The satellite image makes it look like we are in for serious rain here... but all the models show virtually nothing making it.

 

Just a classic case of Tim Overstatement.  Good stuff!

[TT-SEA]

.31" at BLI, .27" at PDX.

 

Not bad for a front that totally dissolved over us leaving us with nothing.

Held together a little better than the HRRR and MM5 showed yesterday. ECMWF last night had it about right. BLI was shown to get good rain on all the models.

[TT-SEA]

It was more the way you interpreted/described things: Somehow that entire plume of moisture just offshore and heading into BC is going to just about completely fall apart before it arrives here and leave us with another nice day tomorrow (just cooler). The satellite image makes it look like we are in for serious rain here... but all the models show virtually nothing making it.

 

Just a classic case of Tim Overstatement.  Good stuff!

 

 

HRRR and MM5 models showed virtually nothing.   HRRR actually showed nothing.     IR satellite looked impressive at that time.    Nothing I said was wrong at the time.    Let it go!    

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF gums up the works with another ULL in a week... but it does seem like we are eventually heading towards a western ridge and Midwest trough scenario finally. Never-ending summer over there right now.

[Phil]

Monster Alaskan wave break on the 12z ECMWF @ 216-240hrs.

 

Solid.

[TT-SEA]

I don't even like watersports, unless you count fishing as a water sport. 

 

 

My kids absolutely love being on the water... now my daughter as well.     They also love fishing.

 

Same for me growing up in Minnesota.   Some of my best memories are summer fun with my family on the water.  

[TT-SEA]

Snowing in Fairbanks.

 

http://s23.postimg.org/x49812yaj/Untitled3.jpg

[stuffradio]

69% of the time, the models are right every time.

52% of the time, 80% of stats are made up.

[richard mann]

12Z ECMWF looks great overall for the next 10 days.  Love that troughing might finally become re-established in the East.   That always helps us.

 

All in line with what you "like" more generally, of course (Kind of goes without say at this point.) hmmn, Tim. ? .. Your "opinion" and "grading" of whatever conditions - present or future projected, being of the foremost importance of course where considering any discussion of the weather the you may be interested in participation in. 

 

.. Here's what I say about what you "like", .... With your dream scenario having pretty much turned out to have played out where looking back for the past what, 6 or 8 months (?), while relative to it, certainly quite a few subregions outside of your special little corner of the world, have faired quite a bit less fortunate, ... I hope you get "slush" and "dank" for the next at very least same number of months.  

[TT-SEA]

All in line with what you "like" more generally, of course (Kind of goes without say at this point.) hmmn, Tim. ? .. Your opinion, being of the foremost importance of course where considering any discussion of the weather the you may be interested in participation in. 

 

.. Here's what I say about what you "like", .... With your dream scenario having pretty much turned out to have played out where looking back for the past what, 6 or 8 months (?), while relative to it, certainly quite a few subregions outside of your special little corner of the world, faired quite a bit less fortunate, ... I hope you get "slush" and "dank" for the next at very least number of months.  

 

 

Everyone posts about what they like... I post about patterns that I like and patterns that I don't like.   

 

I like what the models are showing right now.

 

I think this will be a fairly decent winter up here while you get most of the action down there.   I hope you have all the rain you want and need.  

[richard mann]

Everyone posts about what they like... 

 

Point to what I do, Tim. 

 

Face it, you "reduce" the general discussion here, to what you "like", where and when ever possible. 

 

Some post to this thread, saying things like "nice" day, or whatever more simple. With you, it's a freakin' contest. With "Olympic" scoring potential. 

[TT-SEA]

Point to what I do, Tim. 

 

Face it, you "reduce" the general discussion here, to what you "like", where and when ever possible. 

 

Some post to this thread, saying things like "nice" day, or whatever more simple. With you, it's a freakin' contest. With "Olympic" scoring potential. 

 

Right.     No one else does that.   

 

The only person on here who intentionally keeps opinions out of the discussion is Dewey.   And then people call him out for not expressing his opinion!   

[TT-SEA]

There is valu to this community in someone posting the CFS. There is value in having younger kids go full Oscar Meyer on hour 192. There is value in having cranky cold lovers, and there is value in someone celebrating ridging in a land of never ending troughs.

 

 

   (smiling not smirking)

 

 

The criticism about 'we get it' profoundly applies to the guy down south as well.    If anything... he beats the same exact drum with even more repetition and pompous attitude.   I actually love cold and snow in the winter.    Go figure.

[TT-SEA]

ENSO update from the Aussies... interesting stuff about the Indian Ocean.   Not sure what it means but its interesting.

 

El Niño continues to strengthen. Recent oceanic and atmospheric indicators are at levels not seen since the 1997–98 El Niño. Persistently weak or reversed trade winds and a strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), in conjunction with the ongoing warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean, indicate the El Niño is unlikely to end before early 2016.

Climate models indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are likely to rise further over the next few months, coming close to, or possibly exceeding, monthly values observed during the 1997–98 event. All models suggest the event will peak around the end of the year, followed by rapid weakening heading into autumn 2016. It is too early to accurately determine the likely pattern beyond autumn, but a continued El Niño is considered the least likely outcome at this stage.

Temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean are continuing to have a strong influence on Australian climate. The whole Indian Ocean remains warmer than average with sea surface temperatures in the southern Indian Ocean the highest on record for winter. Some localised cooling near Indonesia means the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index has been above the +0.4 °C threshold for six weeks. If this continues for at least another fortnight, this will be considered a positive IOD event. Most models indicate this is likely.

El Niño is usually associated with below-average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and a positive IOD typically reinforces this pattern over central and southeast Australia. However, this pattern has been offset in central and some southern areas by the record warm Indian Ocean. Warmth in the Indian Ocean is likely to continue.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/monitoring/poama.nino34.small.png

[Front Ranger]

HRRR and MM5 models showed virtually nothing.   HRRR actually showed nothing.     IR satellite looked impressive at that time.    Nothing I said was wrong at the time.    Let it go!    

 

   

[Front Ranger]

52% of the time, 80% of stats are made up.

 

5280'...alluding to my elevation?

 

I 100% agree with you.

[TT-SEA]

Weekly update from Brett today...

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_09251141_sep25a.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_09251142_sept25b.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_09251143_sept25c.png

[Jesse]

Only 66 at PDX today. One aspect of this month that I've really liked is that we've seen lots of sharp, overachieving cool downs.

 

Sorry if that's too opinion-based, but after months of record warmth the change of pace has been enjoyable.

[Front Ranger]

Weekly update from Brett today...

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_09251141_sep25a.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_09251142_sept25b.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2015/590x458_09251143_sept25c.png

 

The Euro weeklies from a few weeks ago missed terribly for this area. Was supposed to turn cool/wet...instead it's been very warm and dry as a bone.