September 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

12Z Canadian looks nice in the long range...

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

Nice 72 at SEA with a dewpoint of almost 60.    

[TT-SEA]

Looking ahead after the front this evening... the 12Z ECMWF only shows a single band of rain moving through on Friday morning and then nice next weekend as well.    Very enjoyable pattern.      

[FroYoBro]

I am very pleased with how this month has turned out so far. Most stations in the I-5 corridor are running anywhere from 1-2 degrees below average for the month to date, and with a very cool pattern advertised for the next 7-10 days those numbers should only continue going down. The possibility is there for this to be the coolest September of the century so far for PDX.

 

Also, if the long range models are correct, we can (hopefully) kiss any more 80 degree weather goodbye for the rest of the year. Yesterday was looking like PDX's last shot for awhile and they only hit 79. 

 

Fingers crossed that we can keep the overall cool pattern going into October.

lol

[TT-SEA]

The JMA is and YNRO are giving the Pacific Northwest a warm and robust ridge for most of fall and winter, so I am sure we will hear about these in the coming days.

 

 

YNRO??

[Phil]

Western troughing and/or onshore flow should continue unabated until early/mid October. It's going to take awhile for that vortex in the GOA to retrograde west/pop a ridge.

[TT-SEA]

Western troughing and/or onshore flow should continue unabated until early/mid October. It's going to take awhile for that vortex in the GOA to retrograde west/pop a ridge.

 

Dry and warm November?   

[Phil]

Dry and warm November?

Maybe. If that vortex fails to retrograde sufficiently, it may just sit in the GOA and lead to continuous southwest flow/storminess. Key is getting tropical forcing to propagate west/near the dateline for a retrograde.

 

Either way it's a terrible pattern if you like Arctic air, though it'll lead to solid negative departures at this time of year. A few months from now..naso much.

[Jesse]

Western troughing and/or onshore flow should continue unabated until early/mid October. It's going to take awhile for that vortex in the GOA to retrograde west/pop a ridge.

Nice, just in time for inversion season.

 

You keep pushing it back too, so I'm guessing by the next update it will be late October/early November.

[bainbridgekid]

72, mostly sunny and, gusting to 30 mph at SEA.

 

Fun day.

[Phil]

Regardless, I don't think Arctic air will be getting into the U.S. until at least mid-January, and that's a best-case scenario. The lower frequency forcing is the only game in town right now, and it's occurring way too far east in the Pacific.

 

Hopefully that changes, but if not, prepare for a coast-to-coast torch for the next 3-4 months.

[TT-SEA]

Maybe. If that vortex fails to retrograde sufficient, it may just sit in the GOA and lead to continuous southwest flow/storminess. Key is getting tropical forcing to propagate west/near the dateline for a retrograde.

 

Either way it's a terrible pattern if you like Arctic air, though it'll lead to solid negative departures at this time of year. A few months from now..naso much.

 

 

Not always below normal... depends on the set-up.     Hoping for a warm November with lots of southerly flow.     

[TT-SEA]

Regardless, I don't think Arctic air will be getting into the U.S. until at least mid-January, and that's a best-case scenario. The lower frequency forcing is the only game in town right now, and it's occurring way too far east in the Pacific.

 

Hopefully that changes, but if not, prepare for a coast-to-coast torch for the next 3-4 months.

 

Nice.    Looking forward to a warm winter and a very early spring,   We are still harvesting from the garden daily and have lots of plans for next spring to improve it.  

 

Here is the morning harvest today.   

 

[Phil]

You keep pushing it back too, so I'm guessing by the next update it will be late October/early November.

Nope.

 

There are two notable large scale standing waves dominating the hemispheric pattern, one centered over NE Europe and the other centered over the NW Pacific. Classic case of constructive interference.

 

Until the next round of WPAC forcing (early-mid October), the Aleutian ridge/-PNA pattern will probably continue.

[Jesse]

Regardless, I don't think Arctic air will be getting into the U.S. until at least mid-January, and that's a best-case scenario. The lower frequency forcing is the only game in town right now, and it's occurring way too far east in the Pacific.

 

Hopefully that changes, but if not, prepare for a coast-to-coast torch for the next 3-4 months.

If the east coast can't have cold, no one can!!

[Phil]

Nice. Looking forward to a warm winter and a very early spring, We are still harvesting from the garden daily and have lots of plans for next spring to improve it.

 

Here is the morning harvest today.

 

 

Those are some delicious looking veggies. Send some my way if you can.

[BLI snowman]

Regardless, I don't think Arctic air will be getting into the U.S. until at least mid-January, and that's a best-case scenario. The lower frequency forcing is the only game in town right now, and it's occurring way too far east in the Pacific.

 

Hopefully that changes, but if not, prepare for a coast-to-coast torch for the next 3-4 months.

 

Could be the warmest winter on record nationally. Given the raging Nino I would expect it to make a run at it anyways.

[BLI snowman]

Not always below normal... depends on the set-up.     Hoping for a warm November with lots of southerly flow.     

 

Southerly flow and warmth in November is usually accompanied by a lot of rain, doofus.

[Phil]

If the east coast can't have cold, no one can!!

Yeah, I'm full of ulterior motivation.

 

Good thing we don't need polar air for big snows here. I'll take a 1982-83 repeat any year.

[Phil]

Could be the warmest winter on record nationally. Given the raging Nino I would expect it to make a run at it anyways.

February is always a question in Niño years, though. I suspect that 2011-12 will be tough to beat.

[BLI snowman]

February is always a question in Niño years, though. I suspect that 2011-12 will be tough to beat.

 

1999-00 and 1991-92 were both actually warmer than 2011-12, which is in 3rd place. 

[TT-SEA]

Southerly flow and warmth in November is usually accompanied by a lot of rain, doofus.

Not with the right set up with a trough a little farther offshore. Hope that is a recurring theme.

[Jesse]

With the Nino looking to peak a little early, hopefully we can start transitioning into a cooler, wetter regime by March or so, giving way to a damp, cloudy summer ala 2010. Then a multi-year Nina to follow??

 

I don't have super high hopes for this winter, though. I will be pretty happy if September and October can both pull off some cold, being that they are my two favorite months anyway. Thus far, this has been my favorite September in years.

 

Then we will probably see a mild and wet November with GOA troughing (and a little mountain snow if we're lucky), maybe a token Nino early-mid December dry cold spell, then a real ugly, splitty torch from late-December to February with a ton of rain in California.

 

We've gotten so used to January and February being dank, awful months without so much as a whiff of wintery weather that it shouldn't phase anyone too much, though. Plus California could use the drought relief.

[BLI snowman]

Not with the right set up with a trough a little farther offshore. Hope that is a recurring theme.

 

Not going to be the 1/20 year setup where November is sunny and warm. The last two Novembers were both sunnier than normal throughout the region. A third is a longshot. With a raging Nino, the initial fall surge of westerlies should be unusually wet for us, be it in October, November, or early December.

[stuffradio]

I'm surprised the picture of the temp anomaly chart I posted produced absolutely 0 discussion. I guess I will keep them to myself.

[TT-SEA]

Not going to be the 1/20 year setup where November is sunny and warm. The last two Novembers were both sunnier than normal throughout the region. A third is a longshot. With a raging Nino, the initial fall surge of westerlies should be unusually wet for us, be it in October, November, or early December.

Summer of 2015 won't be as warm as last year right??

 

1997 was not really wet in the fall.

 

Whatever. I am think ridging is about due again by October.

[TT-SEA]

I'm surprised the picture of the temp anomaly chart I posted produced absolutely 0 discussion. I guess I will keep them to myself.

Yes... been cool in the west and warm east. It was due to happen.

[Jesse]

I'm sure a couple of 80° days in a week or so can turn that blue a different hue.

 

Warm weather is ALWAYS right around the corner. Just depends what time frame you are talking!

[Jesse]

Please don't.

 

I think I am one of the few here who gets his kicks from cool weather in the early fall. There has been surprisingly little discussion on the huge pattern turnaround since the summer in general.

[TT-SEA]

Cooler weather in September after the hottest summer ever... with a Nino in place.

 

Inevitable is an understatement.

[Deweydog]

Cooler weather in September after the hottest summer ever... with a Nino in place.

 

Inevitable is an understatement.

I could only convince one person to climb on board with me though. This September has been a bigger shock than high clouds during a heatwave.

[Phil]

1999-00 and 1991-92 were both actually warmer than 2011-12, which is in 3rd place.

Thanks for the correction. I'm still not sold we'll beat those years, though, I agree this has the potential to be a top-10 warm DJF.

 

The 1990s analogs were dominated by a raging +NAM. The combination of high solar activity, anthropogenic CFC emissions, and volcanic SO^2 wiped out a lot of O^3 and weakened the BDC dramatically, putting the PV on rouds. Even analogs like 1982-83 are probably +NAM biased vs what we're capable of now, in my opinion.

[Phil]

Sometimes, yeah. That seems fair.

 

I mean we are talking about someone who falsified almost every aspect of their life story for several years. I imagine there must have been a cornucopia of ulterior motives there.

You've got me there.

 

That said, I want my forecasts to verify. Letting my biases take control will only lead to busts on my part.

[Jesse]

I could only convince one person to climb on board with me though. This September has been a bigger shock than high clouds during a heatwave.

Warm, humid weather will continue into mid-Occtober. No brainier.

 

But now this was inevitable.

[Deweydog]

Warm, humid weather will continue into mid-Occtober. No brainier.

 

But now this was inevitable.

Weather is definitely on tap! Some of it will upset people, some of it won't...

[Jesse]

Weather is definitely on tap! Some of it will upset people, some of it won't...

 

Speaking of upsetting, how about that surprise 80 today?

 

All it took was one post from me speculating that we might be done with 80+ weather...

[Jesse]

Now Thursday is looking like an 80+ contender too.

 

****. Need to learn to shut my mouth. Last time I pay the weather a nice compliment.

[TT-SEA]

Sharp clearing behind this front... models show no post-frontal activity.   Basically all gone by morning.

[TT-SEA]

Bennett is a nightmare. Giving away free plays for years. Idiot.

[Deweydog]

Speaking of upsetting, how about that surprise 80 today?

 

All it took was one post from me speculating that we might be done with 80+ weather...

Felt nice. Great day for baseball, if a little humid.