November 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Maxim]

it's still November, nobody should be expecting snowstorms yet.

[james1976]

it's still November, nobody should be expecting snowstorms yet.

But it happens often.

[Tom]

it's still November, nobody should be expecting snowstorms yet.

I don't think anyone expects November snowstorms...but rather, can see the foreseeable pattern as promising for a snowstorm or two this year.

 

Meanwhile, the Euro Weeklies came in tonight and nothing has changed and the pattern is evolving as expected this month.  I saw the evolution of the Siberian air building in East Asia very early in November and when the models began to see it creep across into North America I had a feeling that Alaskan Ridge would work its magic.  Not only that, but the LRC will be in Cycle #2 which had the setup to disperse cold into the lower 48 during this period.

 

Around the 20th, the AK/Yukon ridge builds in and Siberian origin air bleeds down the Rockies into the west/central states and slowly expands east towards the Midwest/western Lakes by Thanksgiving week. It's painting a snowy picture over the next 2 weeks from CO/W KS/NE/IA/WI to close out November.  

 

Looking out into December, surprisingly, the model is not letting go of the Eastern North America ridge and develops the west/central Canadian ridge with the jet cutting underneath into the west/central states.  There does not seem to be much of an east coast trough which would suggest more bowling balls/cutters. The EPO, which has been predominantly positive, turns negative around the 20th and never gets into positive territory through the 13th of December (cold signal).  If the EPO stays neutral/negative, as we have seen the past 2 cold winters, I don't see much of a warm signal for the west/central states....east coast is a different story.  The PNA stays negative through the end of the month, then is primarily neutral in December which would knock down that SE ridge a bit (which ain't really a bad thing after all).

 

For those snow lovers, the Control run is showing a swath of 12"+ snows from the Plains/Midwest/Lakes over the next month (cold/snowy signal)...East Coast has practically nothing except for spotty snows in the mountains.  The primary storm track seems to maintain itself where it has been the most active thus far this Autumn season.

 

IMO, the LRC is going to be a very important factor this season and it does not support an A-Typical El Nino year.  Maybe that will change later on in the season but for now, it looks like the west/central states are in for quite a ride as we roll on into the first part of the Winter season. I think the central/southern Plains are in for a wild start to the season.

 

Gary Lezak comes out with his Winter forecast next Tuesday.  I'm sure a lot of ppl on here are excited to see what he has to say.

[Tom]

You can see below where the waters in the NE PAC are heading as they are warming up quite a bit over the last 7 days while the waters cool to the south near the Cali/Baja coasts.  As the season transitions out of Autumn and into Winter, there is a seasonal strengthening of the jet that takes place in the Northern Hemisphere and the jet reacts differently in certain parts of the year.  Same concept will happen in the Spring when the jet weakens.  Almost all the Global models, except the CFSv2, are seeing the NW NAMER ridge and the warmest of waters hugging the NW NAMER coastline.

 

Below is a classic -EPO signal and that is what the models are beginning to see.  In time, as we head into the Dec-Mar period this will only intensify as the season matures.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

[Geos]

Seeing blocking developing in the medium range on the GFS.

 

500 mb pattern shows ridging connecting over the Arctic between Alaska and Greenland the week of Thanksgiving.

AO will plunge in this type of pattern.

 

 

Ridging south of Alaska starts in about 5-6 days.

 

 

[james1976]

Why does that Low just sit in the plains next week? What is keeping it from moving? Good for NE folks though.

[gosaints]

Another different.look on the gfs for next week.

 

Way different both at the surface and at 500 mb

[james1976]

Another different.look on the gfs for next week.

 

Way different both at the surface and at 500 mb

How is it different? Its been showing rain for a lot of us with mild temps and a cut-off low with snow in the plains for the last few days now.

[Geos]

Why does that Low just sit in the plains next week? What is keeping it from moving? Good for NE folks though.

 

System stalls out. Jet stream pinches it off for a time.

 

The result

 

 

 

If this is the case, then there's going to be flooding and towns buried in snow. El Niño Novembers are almost never wet in the Midwest!

[OKwx2k4]

Only question here, what are you referring to as A-typical El Nino? Can you clarify a little?

 

All great points though Tom. Thanks.

[gosaints]

How is it different? Its been showing rain for a lot of us with mild temps and a cut-off low with snow in the plains for the last few days now.

On my phone cant post pics. Check out 500 mb anomalies at 150 hours on the 0z run and compare it to 500mb anomalies at 156 hours on the 18z run.

[Tom]

Only question here, what are you referring to as A-typical El Nino? Can you clarify a little?

 

All great points though Tom. Thanks.

A-Typical, meaning, your usual East Coast storm track from the Gulf up/down the East Coast.  I can't recall even having (1) strong storm ride up the EC this Autumn, except for, the hybrid tropical system that hit the Carolina's.  There have been some weak waves but no strong wound up systems.  It almost seems like nature wants to balance out what happened the previous 2 years and shift course this year and target the central CONUS.

[OKwx2k4]

A-Typical, meaning, your usual East Coast storm track from the Gulf up/down the East Coast. I can't recall even having (1) strong storm ride up the EC this Autumn, except for, the hybrid tropical system that hit the Carolina's. There have been some weak waves but no strong wound up systems. It almost seems like nature wants to balance out what happened the previous 2 years and shift course this year and target the central CONUS.

Ok then. Yes I agree 100 percent then. The Northeast is going to hate this winter. Lol

[Tom]

Ok then. Yes I agree 100 percent then. The Northeast is going to hate this winter. Lol

First half of winter may not be a snow geese type of pattern, however, if the mid/late season blocking sets up (usually is the case in El Nino's) then they will see some big storms.

[Tom]

On my phone cant post pics. Check out 500 mb anomalies at 150 hours on the 0z run and compare it to 500mb anomalies at 156 hours on the 18z run.

1 run...GFS & EURO battling at what happens during the next 5-10 day period...Euro, better physics, my guess is it's handling the pattern much better, esp with the AO/EPO....

[OKwx2k4]

First half of winter may not be a snow geese type of pattern, however, if the mid/late season blocking sets up (usually is the case in El Nino's) then they will see some big storms.

True. Lol. I knew that already, don't know why I wrote it. Haha. Sleepy I guess.

[OKwx2k4]

System stalls out. Jet stream pinches it off for a time.

 

The result

 

http://i.imgur.com/ievGZqF.gif

 

http://i.imgur.com/VMsIy3q.gif

 

If this is the case, then there's going to be flooding and towns buried in snow. El Niño Novembers are almost never wet in the Midwest!

I definitely don't need that much rain. Especially at the start of my hunting season.

[Geos]

PNA predicted the pop back into positive later. That should cool us off in the Midwest.

 

[Maxim]

Cool shots are normal and are bound to happen. Won't stop this month from ending up well above average, and with potentially higher departures than September, though.

[OKwx2k4]

Euro Ensembles run now has a lot less of a ridge connected across Canada in the future. Less ridge over the top coupled with a -EPO and neutral to weakly positive pna means the central US will likely get the cold weather instead of zonal flow and/or cold dumping into the west. May not erase the high average departures for you folks up north but I like where things are headed. We'll all probably get reminded what season it is soon enough. The eastward progression of the pattern is coming and it definitely is an evolving situation worth watching.

[gosaints]

Not to worried about erasing my plus 10.5.  Pretty much banking on positive departures in december and january as well

[Tom]

Happy Friday the 13th!  Mother Nature isn't playing a trick...WSW up in the UP...ski resorts up that way getting a head start on building up their snow base...here's a Live Cam...

 

http://www.indianheadmtn.com/live-cam

 

Another cold, brisk morning today.  Taking a look around my neighborhood, most, if not all, of the tree's are practically bare except for the ones that hold them very late into the Winter.  Our strong Autumn storm did a number to all the leaves that were remaining pre-storm.  I think last year about this time the leaves were about all off of the trees.  Is nature trying to tell us something?

 

 

Cool shots are normal and are bound to happen. Won't stop this month from ending up well above average, and with potentially higher departures than September, though.

Our region will likely remain above normal, folks in the central/southern Plains have a shot  to erase their departures if the arctic air hits hard enough.

 

00z Euro for next Tue/Wed's system pretty much is going to be a soaker for most of us, except for maybe parts of CO/W KS/NE if this system is strong enough.  Recent trends have been showing it to be weaker.  This one is going to be tricky if the Plains see the amount of snow models are showing.  If the northern jet can come down quicker out of Canada and phase better with the southern piece, then things could get real interesting.

 

The mid-week storm then tugs down arctic air out of Canada and creates a boundary draped west/east next Friday and a system forms along this arctic boundary that starts in the Plains and hooks up towards the lower lakes dropping a streak of Snow.  It's one run and things will change.  Pattern is looking promising for our region to see some flakes fly!

 

FWIW, GFS/EURO night & day with regards to the AO/NAO

 

00z Euro Ensembles have not 1, but 2 arctic attacks knifing down the Rockies then oozing east towards western Lakes Day 7-10, then Day 11-15.  Nasty -EPO this time of year unloads the arctic with storm systems around.

 

 

[gosaints]

Yep GFS and GFS ensembles take the both the AO and NAO back to positive.  Should be a nice model battle.

[Tom]

Yep GFS and GFS ensembles take the both the AO and NAO back to positive.  Should be a nice model battle.

Even if the AO/NAO go positive, -EPO over powers the hemispheric flow over North America.  Last year we had a sky high AO and -EPO that brought the cold.  I think in 2013/14 it was the same scenario.  I just want to see the battle zone set up in the central CONUS and get some wintry systems with arctic air in Supply to see the Flakes Fly!

[Tom]

Contiguous U.S. Snow Cover up to 13.3% on Nov 13th...hmmm???  Northwoods get's their first snows of the season...

 

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201511/nsm_depth_2015111305_National.jpg

 

 

Proof is in the pudding...my friend who went Muskey fishing in this region...

 

[BrianJK]

This is nothing for the folks up in the northern woods.  Last year at this time, they were getting slammed with 12-24 inches.  Supposed to be sunny and mid 50s up there this weekend - great for some fall fishing.

[Tom]

This is nothing for the folks up in the northern woods.  Last year at this time, they were getting slammed with 12-24 inches.  Supposed to be sunny and mid 50s up there this weekend - great for some fall fishing.

No doubt, last year's Arctic Attack was 1 in 30 years+...get up there and enjoy some fishing before the lakes start to freeze up!

[OKwx2k4]

Even if the AO/NAO go positive, -EPO over powers the hemispheric flow over North America. Last year we had a sky high AO and -EPO that brought the cold. I think in 2013/14 it was the same scenario.

This is what I was getting at. With a warm north pacific, the EPO can shove the cold down efficiently enough. Whether or not it can carry us through the rougher parts of December before the AO and NAO go negative is the key question. I'm confident (maybe overly) that they go negative before January. The ridge across Canada being unable to connect would likely be a clue to what's coming down the road. That's why I said it was a situation worth watching. Also noting that you can't compare anymore closely to 2009s pattern at 500mb through the first half of November than we are right now except that 2009 was a tad further west with everything.

[WBadgersW]

What a beautiful fall day. Temperature is in the mid 30's, windy, and some snow flurries.

[westMJim]

Getting the first good snow shower here now. Its way too warm for it to stick but snowing just the same.

[westMJim]

I will toss this up here from time to time for anyone who wants to take a peek. This is a link to the MDOT cameras (it should work) 

 

http://mdotnetpublic.state.mi.us/drive/

 

As of today there is some but not much snow in the UP most of it is in the western part with Ironwood looking like its the best.

[Tom]

I went ahead and started a Thread for next Mon-Wed storm system..

[Iowa2015]

Happy Friday the 13th!  Mother Nature isn't playing a trick...WSW up in the UP...ski resorts up that way getting a head start on building up their snow base...here's a Live Cam...

 

http://www.indianheadmtn.com/live-cam

 

Another cold, brisk morning today.  Taking a look around my neighborhood, most, if not all, of the tree's are practically bare except for the ones that hold them very late into the Winter.  Our strong Autumn storm did a number to all the leaves that were remaining pre-storm.  I think last year about this time the leaves were about all off of the trees.  Is nature trying to tell us something?

 

 

 

Our region will likely remain above normal, folks in the central/southern Plains have a shot  to erase their departures if the arctic air hits hard enough.

 

00z Euro for next Tue/Wed's system pretty much is going to be a soaker for most of us, except for maybe parts of CO/W KS/NE if this system is strong enough.  Recent trends have been showing it to be weaker.  This one is going to be tricky if the Plains see the amount of snow models are showing.  If the northern jet can come down quicker out of Canada and phase better with the southern piece, then things could get real interesting.

 

The mid-week storm then tugs down arctic air out of Canada and creates a boundary draped west/east next Friday and a system forms along this arctic boundary that starts in the Plains and hooks up towards the lower lakes dropping a streak of Snow.  It's one run and things will change.  Pattern is looking promising for our region to see some flakes fly!

 

FWIW, GFS/EURO night & day with regards to the AO/NAO

 

00z Euro Ensembles have not 1, but 2 arctic attacks knifing down the Rockies then oozing east towards western Lakes Day 7-10, then Day 11-15.  Nasty -EPO this time of year unloads the arctic with storm systems around.

i love for this to verify it be a solid start & a decent first snow of the season

[jaster220]

I will toss this up here from time to time for anyone who wants to take a peek. This is a link to the MDOT cameras (it should work) 

 

http://mdotnetpublic.state.mi.us/drive/

 

As of today there is some but not much snow in the UP most of it is in the western part with Ironwood looking like its the best.

 

Thanks. Nice link!

[Geos]

What a beautiful fall day. Temperature is in the mid 30's, windy, and some snow flurries.

 

Flurries! Same here in Racine, but it is a touch warmer.

 

Today I can say it looks like winter is about here - trees are bare overall.

[NEJeremy]

Finally had our first freeze last night with 31 at the airport. Tied for the latest date ever. Have yet to have a hard freeze.. Latest date for that is 11/23 I believe. Of note, with our bit of snow from the last storm, it marked the 5th time in recorded history we had our first snow before our first freeze.

[Tom]

Quiet the different look on the 12z GFS once it realizes what to do in the NE PAC...dominant -EPO that run...siding with the Euro...

[jaster220]

What a beautiful fall day. Temperature is in the mid 30's, windy, and some snow flurries.

 

Love watching autumn fade into winter. All those peeps that want to force ma nature to do this or that should get a clue. She dances to her own tune, not yours. As Tom said, last year's historic early cold is NOT climo. There's nothing indicating futility will rule this winter - nothing.

[gosaints]

Love watching autumn fade into winter. All those peeps that want to force ma nature to do this or that should get a clue. She dances to her own tune, not yours. As Tom said, last year's historic early cold is NOT climo. There's nothing indicating futility will rule this winter - nothing.

Nobody is saying it isnt going to snow.  What we have seen this november is not climo either obviously.  Nightime lows are going to approach +20 next week around here.  Nothing climo about that

[jaster220]

Nobody is saying it isnt going to snow.  What we have seen this november is not climo either obviously.  Nightime lows are going to approach +20 next week around here.  Nothing climo about that

 

Ur correct, and I for one am enjoying this. Balances out last NOV's premature deep freeze which did little besides start my high winter utility bills a month early and make some of us snow peeps wish our address was on the south side of BUF.