I'll try and answer this the best I can. First thing we are only 12 to 14 days into a new LRC pattern. The cycle length to this pattern will likely be somewhere between 40 and 60 days, we can usually have it pinned down by the end of November. So far the first 2 weeks of the pattern have pretty much stunk but keep in mind that the jet stream will getting stronger and working south as we move into winter. Take for instance this cutoff low that's currently over the Southwest. It will likely not be cutoff in the next cycle due to a stronger jet stream and will probably swing through as a deep trough and produce some rain and snow across the plains. There has also been some pretty nice blocking that has set up at times and as the snow pack builds across Canada the cold fronts will be stronger. Also teleconnections will play a big part in the pattern. The MJO has been in warm and dry phases but is headed toward a cooler wetter phase 7 as we get to November so maybe that will help out. We have a lot of this pattern left so it's too early at this point to draw any conclusions other than there will be at least some northwest flow. Let's not punt just yet.

September finished right around average rainfall, October shouldn’t end up too far below average either but probably on the dry side of normal. It’s felt like a fairly typical fall. I think we’re going to be wetter than normal next month as well. Been awhile since we’ve broken the 10” monthly total barrier. Last month to do that was January 2020 with 10.27” of rain.

I would say very slim chance. But look at GEPS. Instead it’s just a slim chance

0.02” of rain this morning…but other than that has just been a cloudy gloomy day so far. 52/42 today. Up to 1.47” so far this month.

More of a disappearing act then a pushback