The northwest flow and relative dryness in the models in the long range looks like we'll be starting cycle 2. The GFS and Euro look alot like early October.

Yeah, I'm not punting this yet. We'll often see a system out in the long range that the models kind of lose for a period of time, before it comes back in some manner. Not always of course.

I have my ritalin on hand

The EPS continues to show a band of snow on Thanksgiving. There must be several members still showing this possibility, despite the operational model mostly giving up on it.

About the only good thing I can say right now is at least the atmosphere over the tropical Pacific is in a solidly Nina configuration at the present time. Something good has to come of that eventually. I did notice Nov 2008 is showing up in the analogs today. We definitely went from steaming crap to greatness that season.