Subsurface is what I follow for PNA correlation, and this went Neutral about 2 months ago, after being in "Moderate-Nina" range from mid-February through September. This year is a pretty good example of the N. pacific high following central-subsurface cold vs neutral. A -1c to -2c cold pool is trying to work back, but it looks like the subsurface will stay Neutral through the remainder of this "Nina".

That's more like it!

There is almost zero Niña low frequency signal now. Almost all MJO/higher frequency stuff.

This looks like it could be a legit high SOI episode. Already many consecutive days of double digit plusses and it look like it might go higher. The ECMWF has been indicating pressure dropping to around 1000mb in Darwin which often bodes well for a big GOA block shortly afterward.

Looks like a lot of dry cold here. Endless NW flow. Need more Pacific jet energy to squeeze through to make it interesting. This early in the season the result will be highs in the upper 30s and lows in the lower 20s. Which is a typical -5 departure in January. Honestly not all that interesting.