A positive PNA December in neutral/Nina years tends to hang around in January, so it would not be that surprising to see the PNA average positive for the month of January. That's why I've been thinking that later January could have better chances than early January in your area as we may see the PNA tending more neutral or negative later in January.

At least the ECMWF has a Scandi block at the end of the run and it looks like it's fixing to stay put. Also still showing the big Siberian strat warming.

Merry Christmas!

EPS has finally settled on the low location. Question is exactly where the bent back occlusion will come through, and how strong.

AL pattern? Still going on January 9th per 12Z ECMWF. Wet... wet... wet.