Cold ENSO makes above normal GOA heights exceedingly likely though.

While it is not an official white Christmas here, it sure looks and feels like one. A second thick coating of hoar frost/rime ice from the dense fog overnight has actually made the surroundings more white than even during a snowstorm. So often here we have wind blowing with the snow, so the trees hardly get covered. The frost on the other hand makes all the trees look beautiful! Hope everyone has a very Merry Christmas!

I think we all owe Eric Webb a Christmas apology.

ENSO just influences the odds. Never guarantees anything. Also - plenty of time for things to change. Yeah, it's the EPS but that's still really far out and sometimes pattern changes can sneak up, and then the models rapidly adjust.

At this time in 2002 I was still being nourished by the flanks of the Halloween cold snap.