U got the temp mean?

Been busy - thx for posting. Used to be EU/NAM combo was "money" - let's see if still holds true? APX noting the EPS: The dynamics are certainly in place for a moderate snow event with plenty of frontogenetical forcing as showcased by a couple of pieces of deterministic guidance. ECMWF even prints a bonefide TROWAL feature, henceforth the significant snow amounts (remarkably within almost every piece of EPS guidance as well). Otherwise a very late fall mid-40's with winds-n-clouds kind of afternoon around here. No full sun, just some thinning of the overcast at times. Was west over to Cadillac and surprised that we have/had more snow here in Harrison. Not even plow banks along the hwy west of here. Really surprising since they've had at least one warning for LES this month.

18z GEFS definitely trended west with the trough and was quite a bit colder and somewhat snowier for the Jan 5-10 period.

EPS weeklies have pushed back the warm-up to the end of Jan out here. I’d be shocked if the cold pattern lasted into Feb, but then again I’ve been underestimating the +TNH/+PNA all winter so far (despite having forecasted it as the mean state).

Those correlations are nonlinear/state dependent though. Depends how the -AO/-NAO and/or SSW comes about, and the in-situ system state at that time.