Last night’s score: 2 2

ICON still not biting on anything more than a trace and RGEM has trended worse as some of the other models trend better. Like so many situations, this will probably come down to a nowcast. How far north does this thing go and how quickly can precip rates dynamically cool the column? TBD.

The 12z ICON is not quite there, but has made a good move toward the bigger event.

The 12z 3kNAM has walked back the New Year's Eve system a bit for Iowa. It's a bit south and less cold, so I'd likely just get a bit of wet snow.

Looks like cooler showers today with a slight risk of a thunderstorm or two 🌧