Got to be honest, I get super confused following this forum when people constantly post operational model run graphics for like two weeks out. Ensemble means have their disadvantages too, especially when there is a large spread. But anything deterministic is going to swing like crazy run to run. It's completely worthless to take any stock in those runs until we get into the range of short term viability (5 days...maybe). I follow the Ensemble min temp charts on a daily basis and the control runs are wild. a complete roller coaster - up and down, back and forth. But you can clearly see trends looking at the member list as a whole, which is much less volatile. I've heard the argument that operational runs are preferred because ensembles are "boring" and naturally moderated due to the perpetual presence of warmer members. But is it really more fun to ride the roller coaster of operational runs, knowing they literally have zero bearing on what is going to happen two weeks out? Just seems like a waste of time to me. maybe i'm missing something. It's funny because i know for a fact that a majority of you know way more about the science of weather than I do.

Still on track for Feb 1

Aifs ens isn’t as bad

I think we got 51 inches that year, several feet below average. It was very few and far between here. Most of the winter was a snowless ground.