EURO vs the World

40 inches even on euro is crazy

APX breakdown (even mention the "B-word") FORECAST DETAILS... Winds and Snow Thursday night into Friday...seems like a good setup for a punchy lil clipper. Negative tilt to the incoming shortwave trough supports a more wound-up surface low and thus, stronger winds...with some guidance suggesting the pressure gradient could support sustained winds in excess of 25kts over land Thursday night into Friday with a 40-50kt low-level jet. Think we could struggle to tap some of these stronger winds aloft, at least initially with the warm advection...but thermal profiles aren`t overly stable in the low-levels (unlike this current system), and have some suspicions it may be a little easier to mix things down...particularly with the front sweeping through, which could add some isallobaric fun to the party. Probabilistic guidance also supports this idea, with high confidence in sustained 15-20kts (even a 50 percent chance--moderate confidence--in 25kts at Traverse City), particularly on the back of the low Friday midday/afternoon, with some of those stronger gusts mixing down at times. This being said, where the surface low tracks directly overhead...winds will be much lighter for a time during the day on Friday, and current signals suggest this should be in the Straits region, though it could be as far south as the M-68 corridor and even as far north as near/north of Whitefish Point. Combined with the snow...looking at potential for whiteout (nigh on blizzard) conditions for Thursday night into Friday, with impacts to the morning commute.

61 at hoqiuam, 45 at Tacoma narrows, 44 in Shelton. Breezy here…and 1.5” of rain since midnight.

This cracks me up. Euro went from showing tons of snow in the most marginal setups to nothing.