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Is Global warming a myth?

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#51
Scott

Posted 12 November 2017 - 07:09 PM

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 I am arguing the man made warming aspect. I don't buy it and I never will. Its all cyclical. 

 

 

I have three questions for you.

 

1.   Why is the average temperature of the Moon less than that of Earth, even though they are about the same distance from the sun?

 

2.   Why is Venus hotter than Mercury even though Mercury is closer to the sun? 

 

3.  Off the top of your head, in your opinion, what are the three most important equations in thermodynamics that say that it is possible to add CO2 into a closed system receiving solar energy without causing warming?


At home:

 

Coldest temperature thus far in 2018:   -26 on 2/21<

 

Warmest temperature thus far in 2018:  99 on 7/8 (All time record high

 

Precip thus far in 2018:   6.45 inches

 

Snowfall thus far in 2018:   35.7 inches


#52
Phil

Posted 12 November 2017 - 07:36 PM

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I have three questions for you.

1. Why is the average temperature of the Moon less than that of Earth, even though they are about the same distance from the sun?

2. Why is Venus hotter than Mercury even though Mercury is closer to the sun?


FWIW, a massive slew of factors (too many to list) determine the average temperature of a planet, and GHGes are just one of those many factors (albeit an important one). Unfortunately, the Stefan-Boltzmann law of thermal radiation is often mis-applied to "average surface temperature", which in fact is not predictable via that specific equation. Thermal capacity, photochemistry, rotation rate, and emissivity are all involved in maintaining the "average" temperature.

3. Off the top of your head, in your opinion, what are the three most important equations in thermodynamics that say that it is possible to add CO2 into a closed system receiving solar energy without causing warming?


Another misconception is that CO^2 "adds" energy to the system via "backradiation". That's not at all how it works (much more complex issue involving collisional line broadening/time delays between the emission/diffusion ratios with altitude, which raises the aggregate emission height).

In fact, the presence of CO^2 actually reduces the thermal capacity of the atmosphere itself because it emits in the infrared spectrum (the thermal capacity of CO^2 is ~ 38% less than that of nitrogen, for example).

When a CO^2 molecule emits a photon, it moves into a less excited state (loses energy), and is therefore "cooler" than the surrounding gases at that moment. The surrounding gases then conduct some of their heat to the cooler CO^2 molecule via collisions, moving into less excited states themselves. So the fact CO^2 sheds energy via emission actually reduces the heat capacity of the atmosphere.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#53
crf450ish

Posted 15 November 2017 - 07:35 AM

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FWIW, a massive slew of factors (too many to list) determine the average temperature of a planet, and GHGes are just one of those many factors (albeit an important one). Unfortunately, the Stefan-Boltzmann law of thermal radiation is often mis-applied to "average surface temperature", which in fact is not predictable via that specific equation. Thermal capacity, photochemistry, rotation rate, and emissivity are all involved in maintaining the "average" temperature.


Another misconception is that CO^2 "adds" energy to the system via "backradiation". That's not at all how it works (much more complex issue involving collisional line broadening/time delays between the emission/diffusion ratios with altitude, which raises the aggregate emission height).

In fact, the presence of CO^2 actually reduces the thermal capacity of the atmosphere itself because it emits in the infrared spectrum (the thermal capacity of CO^2 is ~ 38% less than that of nitrogen, for example).

When a CO^2 molecule emits a photon, it moves into a less excited state (loses energy), and is therefore "cooler" than the surrounding gases at that moment. The surrounding gases then conduct some of their heat to the cooler CO^2 molecule via collisions, moving into less excited states themselves. So the fact CO^2 sheds energy via emission actually reduces the heat capacity of the atmosphere.

Ive pretty much chalked up the fact that nearly all of the teachings in modern education, both primary and higher education, indoctrinate students with the idea that CO2 is the main factor in our changing weather and climate. I have read a plethora of articles and papers relating to climate change. Very few cite natural causes, yet most hinge nearly all climate change on......drum roll........ CO2. Whats even more interesting is the privately funded research groups are the ones not citing CO2 as the source for climate change. I wonder why.

 

But I am not a scientist nor do I have a fancy acronym after my name, so what do I know? :)



#54
Glacier

Posted 24 November 2017 - 02:26 PM

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It's not a myth, but there are a lot of myths that have been attributed to it. Global Warming/ AGW/ Climate Change is the theory that human caused emissions mean that the planet is warmer than it would be if we were still living in the stone age. Beyond that, it's mostly myth.

 

People think that human caused warming is bad, but natural warming is good (naturalistic fallacy).

People think that all the consequences of warming are negative while ignoring the positives. ie. change is bad (appeal to tradition fallacy).

People think that the warming of the planet is accelerating. When you call them out on it with science and data, they invoke the appeal to authority fallacy by claiming someone with more important title than you disagrees (even though they cannot actually cite the person's statement on this).

People think that the only solution to the warming is Marxism, and thus have no time for scientific inquiry and cost-benefit analysis.



#55
WeatherArchive

Posted 24 November 2017 - 02:46 PM

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What's also bad is when we keep doing the same practices not adapting to a warming world. 

 

It's not a myth, but there are a lot of myths that have been attributed to it. Global Warming/ AGW/ Climate Change is the theory that human caused emissions mean that the planet is warmer than it would be if we were still living in the stone age. Beyond that, it's mostly myth.

 

People think that human caused warming is bad, but natural warming is good (naturalistic fallacy).

People think that all the consequences of warming are negative while ignoring the positives. ie. change is bad (appeal to tradition fallacy).

People think that the warming of the planet is accelerating. When you call them out on it with science and data, they invoke the appeal to authority fallacy by claiming someone with more important title than you disagrees (even though they cannot actually cite the person's statement on this).

People think that the only solution to the warming is Marxism, and thus have no time for scientific inquiry and cost-benefit analysis.

Marxism isn't even a solution. It's guarantee destruction for all but those at the top and those who kissed their way to the top. It's the same corporate crap on steroids.


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#56
Sounder

Posted 03 December 2017 - 07:51 PM

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It's not a myth, but there are a lot of myths that have been attributed to it. Global Warming/ AGW/ Climate Change is the theory that human caused emissions mean that the planet is warmer than it would be if we were still living in the stone age. Beyond that, it's mostly myth.

 

People think that human caused warming is bad, but natural warming is good (naturalistic fallacy).

People think that all the consequences of warming are negative while ignoring the positives. ie. change is bad (appeal to tradition fallacy).

People think that the warming of the planet is accelerating. When you call them out on it with science and data, they invoke the appeal to authority fallacy by claiming someone with more important title than you disagrees (even though they cannot actually cite the person's statement on this).

People think that the only solution to the warming is Marxism, and thus have no time for scientific inquiry and cost-benefit analysis.

This brings up an interesting point that I've always been surprised it doesn't get more discussion, especially from Conservatards who are hell bent on making science a political issue.

 

It's quite clear and pretty well established fact among the rest of the world outside this forum that at least some degree of AGW is occurring. But there's a potentially compelling (not making and statement on my own personal agreement with this line of reasoning) argument to be made that to a point, global warming could be a net benefit over a net cost to humanity. As you said, humans have a kneejerk tendency to believe that change=bad, but I haven't really seen a clear case made yet that a few degrees of warming would be the absolute disaster its made out to be. Aside from increased prozac prescriptions in Covington, of course.



#57
Front Ranger

Posted 04 December 2017 - 06:37 PM

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This brings up an interesting point that I've always been surprised it doesn't get more discussion, especially from Conservatards who are hell bent on making science a political issue.

 

It's quite clear and pretty well established fact among the rest of the world outside this forum that at least some degree of AGW is occurring. But there's a potentially compelling (not making and statement on my own personal agreement with this line of reasoning) argument to be made that to a point, global warming could be a net benefit over a net cost to humanity. As you said, humans have a kneejerk tendency to believe that change=bad, but I haven't really seen a clear case made yet that a few degrees of warming would be the absolute disaster its made out to be. Aside from increased prozac prescriptions in Covington, of course.

 

I've made this point before as well. That's where the alarmism really turns me off - it seems pretty unbalanced, only looking at potential negative consequences and basically ignoring potential positive ones.

 

Change is hard either way, but all else being equal, a warmer world is more hospitable to humans than a colder one.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#58
WeatherArchive

Posted 07 December 2017 - 05:29 AM

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Is our warming winters a myth? You decide yourself by what you see and I see ridging and more ridging behind that.



#59
WeatherArchive

Posted 07 December 2017 - 05:34 AM

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This brings up an interesting point that I've always been surprised it doesn't get more discussion, especially from Conservatards who are hell bent on making science a political issue.

 

It's quite clear and pretty well established fact among the rest of the world outside this forum that at least some degree of AGW is occurring. But there's a potentially compelling (not making and statement on my own personal agreement with this line of reasoning) argument to be made that to a point, global warming could be a net benefit over a net cost to humanity. As you said, humans have a kneejerk tendency to believe that change=bad, but I haven't really seen a clear case made yet that a few degrees of warming would be the absolute disaster its made out to be. Aside from increased prozac prescriptions in Covington, of course.

Again who does this benefit the most?  Certainly not the users of course. :)



#60
LNK_Weather

Posted 11 December 2017 - 06:38 AM

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Is our warming winters a myth? You decide yourself by what you see and I see ridging and more ridging behind that.


I didn't know that ridges we're completely man-made! Tell me more oh wise one.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#61
Eujunga

Posted 11 December 2017 - 10:42 AM

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I didn't know that ridges we're completely man-made! Tell me more oh wise one.

 

Well, there's this:

 

"We found that there has been a substantial increase in the propensity for extreme ridge/trough sequences to produce especially severe temperature contrasts across the U.S., and (to a lesser extent) an increase in the frequency of the relevant atmospheric “western ridge/eastern trough” pressure patterns themselves. Using climate model simulations, we further found that an increase in extreme temperature dipole days like those we’ve observed in recent years is considerably more likely in a climate with rising greenhouse gas concentrations than in a hypothetical climate without human influence."

 

http://weatherwest.com/archives/5982


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#62
LNK_Weather

Posted 11 December 2017 - 11:52 AM

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Well, there's this:

 

"We found that there has been a substantial increase in the propensity for extreme ridge/trough sequences to produce especially severe temperature contrasts across the U.S., and (to a lesser extent) an increase in the frequency of the relevant atmospheric “western ridge/eastern trough” pressure patterns themselves. Using climate model simulations, we further found that an increase in extreme temperature dipole days like those we’ve observed in recent years is considerably more likely in a climate with rising greenhouse gas concentrations than in a hypothetical climate without human influence."

 

http://weatherwest.com/archives/5982

Regardless, is it not a tiny bit asinine to just automatically assume a ridge, a part of a weather pattern that has existed since the big bang, is caused by AGW? That reminds me of the people that think thunderstorms are caused by humans.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#63
Phil

Posted 11 December 2017 - 02:23 PM

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FYP

Well, there's this:

"We found that there has been a substantial increase in the propensity for extreme ridge/trough sequences to produce especially severe temperature contrasts across the U.S., and (to a lesser extent) an increase in the frequency of the relevant atmospheric “western ridge/eastern trough” pressure patterns themselves. Using climate model simulations, we further found that an increase in extreme temperature dipole days like those we’ve observed in recent years is considerably more likely in a climate with an expanded west-Pacific warm pool than in a hypothetical climate without an expanded warm pool ."

http://weatherwest.com/archives/5982


Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#64
Phil

Posted 11 December 2017 - 02:25 PM

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It’s the f**king Indo-WPAC warm pool. This one is pretty obvious. We see it play out every year from an intraseasonal and seasonal standpoint.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#65
Jesse

Posted 11 December 2017 - 05:50 PM

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It’s the f**king Indo-WPAC warm pool. This one is pretty obvious. We see it play out every year from an intraseasonal and seasonal standpoint.


You think it’s outside of the realm of possibility that that feature could be modified by AGW to some degree?

#66
Phil

Posted 11 December 2017 - 05:54 PM

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You think it’s outside of the realm of possibility that that feature could be modified by AGW to some degree?


Of course it can, but there’s no evidence (or logic) behind the idea that its location/shape will change due to changes in global temperature.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#67
Front Ranger

Posted 11 December 2017 - 06:31 PM

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Well, there's this:

 

"We found that there has been a substantial increase in the propensity for extreme ridge/trough sequences to produce especially severe temperature contrasts across the U.S., and (to a lesser extent) an increase in the frequency of the relevant atmospheric “western ridge/eastern trough” pressure patterns themselves. Using climate model simulations, we further found that an increase in extreme temperature dipole days like those we’ve observed in recent years is considerably more likely in a climate with rising greenhouse gas concentrations than in a hypothetical climate without human influence."

 

http://weatherwest.com/archives/5982

 

I doubt these sequences have been more severe than what was seen in the 1930s, for example. That decade had insane extremes.


Cool anomalies soothe the soul.


#68
LNK_Weather

Posted 12 December 2017 - 05:40 AM

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I doubt these sequences have been more severe than what was seen in the 1930s, for example. That decade had insane extremes.


Case in point, we had a low in the 90s here that year.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM