November 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

There's that SLP slot position per 12z GEFS which is "fitting" this year's LRC.  How will this evolve for the Thanksgiving travel week???  That's a strong looking Dakota's block right there.

 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Meanwhile you hear their complaints like: "I don't know if I can handle any more snow, my back hurts from shoveling so much lulz"

 

 

http://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/heh_robin_hood_men_in_tights.gif

Oh no, my igloo is surrounded by another 5' of snow. Oh no, Nebraskans are complaining about lack of snow again.

[jaster220]

Right? Shyttier than a port-a-potty after a 3 day music festival. I'll just be happy if we get one monstrous storm that drops 12". I miss those so much

 

STOP COMPLAINING YOU SPOILED BRAT!!!!1!1

 

We just ALL need to move up THERE!!  I swear, every winter that area is buried! 

 

 

[Niko]

We just ALL need to move up THERE!!  I swear, every winter that area is buried! 

 

20171113 Canada snow for all!.JPG

Eventually, that color will be ova SEMI. Just give it some time. 

[jaster220]

There's that SLP slot position per 12z GEFS which is "fitting" this year's LRC.  How will this evolve for the Thanksgiving travel week???  That's a strong looking Dakota's block right there.

 

 

 

 

By those maps, it just gets squished to nothing by that monstrous bully HP, which is the extreme neg AO at work?

[jaster220]

Eventually, that color will be ova SEMI. Just give it some time. 

 

LOL, that was my mantra the past two seasons..and, we know how well that worked out 

[Money]

Meanwhile you hear their complaints like: "I don't know if I can handle any more snow, my back hurts from shoveling so much lulz"

 

 

http://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/heh_robin_hood_men_in_tights.gif

NebraskaWX is an interesting name considering according to you guys you don’t see any

[Minny_Weather]

We just ALL need to move up THERE!! I swear, every winter that area is buried!

 

20171113 Canada snow for all!.JPG

My dad used to work in Quebec City. He's worked in many different cities across the US and Canada. He said Quebec City Winters we're the most brutal.

[Minny_Weather]

NebraskaWX is an interesting name considering according to you guys you don’t see any

I bet you're fun at a party.

[jaster220]

Eventually, that color will be ova SEMI. Just give it some time. 

 

LOL, that was my mantra the past two seasons..and, we know how well that worked out 

[Tom]

By those maps, it just gets squished to nothing by that monstrous bully HP, which is the extreme neg AO at work?

At this juncture, you won't get any definitive clarity this far out.  This system has a lot that can go for it, and a lot that can squash it just like you mentioned.  Although, you can argue that systems have had a better chance this season to develop.  Personally, this storm has a good chance if it can develop near the Rockies.

[Money]

I bet you're fun at a party.

Ha coming from a guy who gets mad that a computer model 200+ hours out isn’t showing snow for you

[Minny_Weather]

Most trees here have gone completely bare. The few outside my window, however, have the leaves at an ugly grayish shade now. I want them gone. They're unpleasant to look at.

[Minny_Weather]

Ha coming from a guy who gets mad that a computer model 200+ hours out isn’t showing snow for you

Considering for here they verify 99% of the time I don't find that to be unreasonable. Says the one that has likely never lived here or anywhere close to here, especially in the past few years.

[Money]

Considering for here they verify 99% of the time I don't find that to be unreasonable. Says the one that has likely never lived here or anywhere close to here, especially in the past few years.

You can’t control weather and whatever happens is going to happen regardless. Complaining about it does nothing

[Minny_Weather]

 

This reminds me of when I was in high school band and we would be SURROUNDED by rain but not have a single drop hit us so practice kept on going.

 

No, seriously. One time we were surrounded.

 

I'm wondering if our bad luck last Winter was my fault for being here. 

[Minny_Weather]

You can’t control weather and whatever happens is going to happen regardless. Complaining about it does nothing

And what does complaining about us do? Turns this thread irrelevant. Even with our (rightful) complaining we're still talking about weather, now aren't we?

[Tom]

Trends from the 12z GEFS are a bit more snowier across the Plains/Midwest/GL's.  Things are looking up, not down, so we all just need to chillzzzzzzzzz....Happy Monday!

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gefs/2017111312/384/snod.conus.png

[Money]

And what does complaining about us do? Turns this thread irrelevant. Even with our (rightful) complaining we're still talking about weather, now aren't we?

You have a thread to complain in.

[Tom]

Allow the pattern to evolve, once we get into the part of this year's cycling pattern where the Hudson Bay vortex gets replaced by a ridge (just after the 17th), the jet cuts underneath just like it did in late October  During this period, the pattern will be blocked up, including, but not limited to, the intra-seasonal shifts of the jet, we will probably end up seeing a couple of storms that can "share the wealth".  It's my first stab at what I think will happen once we get into the middle of Thanksgiving week and into that following holiday weekend.  There are 2 systems which I'm looking for, the first, of which, is targeted during the 11/21 - 11/22 period...the second 11/25 - 11/26....patience grasshoppers.

[Money]

Just curious how old is everyone here? I find the cold/snow to be more of a nunance than anything as I get older

 

When I was in middle school I used to love snow because of snow days and I didn’t have to drive in it but now it kind of sucks. I still love a good snow storm but it’s the 2-3 inch type snows that are a pain in the a**

[Minny_Weather]

You have a thread to complain in.

And we can't talk about November weather patterns in the November thread?

 

I am ever so sorry for this travesty your highness. I will try to not disappoint you so next time.

 

My apologies everyone. I'm done with this conversation. Just think it's a bit ridiculous that we can't show a BIT of frustration without being called out for it.

[Niko]

Allow the pattern to evolve, once we get into the part of this year's cycling pattern where the Hudson Bay vortex gets replaced by a ridge (just after the 17th), the jet cuts underneath just like it did in late October  During this period, the pattern will be blocked up, including, but not limited to, the intra-seasonal shifts of the jet, we will probably end up seeing a couple of storms that can "share the wealth".  It's my first stab at what I think will happen once we get into the middle of Thanksgiving week and into that following holiday weekend.  There are 2 systems which I'm looking for, the first, of which, is targeted during the 11/21 - 11/22 period...the second 11/25 - 11/26....patience grasshoppers.

Amen to that!

[Money]

And we can't talk about November weather patterns in the November thread?

 

I am ever so sorry for this travesty your highness. I will try to not disappoint you so next time.

 

My apologies everyone. I'm done with this conversation. Just think it's a bit ridiculous that we can't show a BIT of frustration without being called out for it.

A bit of frustration? It’s every day in this thread and it’s Nov 13th which means we have 4 months of winter left yet most likely. None of us here outside of maybe one person has seen accumulating snow (2+ inches) so far yet no one is complaining but you guys

[Jaycee]

NebraskaWX is an interesting name considering according to you guys you don’t see any

 

 

So is Money, when you probably don't have any 

 

 

I should change it though lol anyone have any suggestions?

 

 

Also, I agree it's dumb to write off winter in November, but at the same time, the trends aren't our friends, at least for now! I stated in my winter forecast though, I think an 07-08' repeat is on deck, which wasn't too bad for us, but that was when you guys got absolutely hammered up there in Fondy! Wouldn't be surprised to see it again. Hope something does end up coming to fruition around Thanksgiving like the GFS and EURO have been hinting at -- I'm actually going to be in that area, so keeping my fingers crossed!

[NEJeremy]

Just curious how old is everyone here? I find the cold/snow to be more of a nunance than anything as I get older

 

When I was in middle school I used to love snow because of snow days and I didn’t have to drive in it but now it kind of sucks. I still love a good snow storm but it’s the 2-3 inch type snows that are a pain in the a**

I'm 40 and I think the exact same way. In fact I was noticing last week when we had the "cold" with highs in the 30s and some wind, how much more I HATE the cold weather than even just a few years ago.

I'm here because I love severe weather, i.e. storms in the summer and blizzards/winter storms in the winter. The cold and the nuisance snows are an annoying part of winter to me too the older I get

[jaster220]

Allow the pattern to evolve, once we get into the part of this year's cycling pattern where the Hudson Bay vortex gets replaced by a ridge (just after the 17th), the jet cuts underneath just like it did in late October  During this period, the pattern will be blocked up, including, but not limited to, the intra-seasonal shifts of the jet, we will probably end up seeing a couple of storms that can "share the wealth".  It's my first stab at what I think will happen once we get into the middle of Thanksgiving week and into that following holiday weekend.  There are 2 systems which I'm looking for, the first, of which, is targeted during the 11/21 - 11/22 period...the second 11/25 - 11/26....patience grasshoppers.

 

Ofc, you're right Tom. Thanksgiving is on the early side this year. Per the EAR, that second system would be the one with the best chance to get legs. So far, I'm very happy with the progression of the pattern/LRC. By the time we get to December - look out! Both Dec '89 and '00 may get a run for their money around the LES belts of WMI. 

[jaster220]

Just curious how old is everyone here? I find the cold/snow to be more of a nunance than anything as I get older

 

When I was in middle school I used to love snow because of snow days and I didn’t have to drive in it but now it kind of sucks. I still love a good snow storm but it’s the 2-3 inch type snows that are a pain in the a**

 

In my 50's and drive 85 miles one way to work thru the heart of the SWMI snowbelt. And that's not the hard part, lol. It's the crazy-a$$ traffic. If I had the road to myself no sweat. 2013-14 tested even my patience, and with the economy at full steam in #puremichigan, I'd swear the volume of vehicles has doubled since then so really dreading the onset of snowy commutes and traffic at a crawl or stopped completely. The older I've gotten, the less I tolerate the really cold stuff tho. Still love a good storm and the beauty of deep solid winter conditions. After the last 2 weak winters here, I know I'll lean towards real winter vs the TN winter we got last year. That was horrid. Oh, and 2-3" isn't nuisance, the endless

[Niko]

In my 50's and drive 85 miles one way to work thru the heart of the SWMI snowbelt. And that's not the hard part, lol. It's the crazy-a$$ traffic. If I had the road to myself no sweat. 2013-14 tested even my patience, and with the economy at full steam in #puremichigan, I'd swear the volume of vehicles has doubled since then so really dreading the onset of snowy commutes and traffic at a crawl or stopped completely. The older I've gotten, the less I tolerate the really cold stuff tho. Still love a good storm and the beauty of deep solid winter conditions. After the last 2 weak winters here, I know I'll lean towards real winter vs the TN winter we got last year. That was horrid. Oh, and 2-3" isn't nuisance, the endless

Nice explanation Jaster. The population has been going up here as well. I have noticed that myself.

[Minny_Weather]

Just curious how old is everyone here? I find the cold/snow to be more of a nunance than anything as I get older

 

When I was in middle school I used to love snow because of snow days and I didn’t have to drive in it but now it kind of sucks. I still love a good snow storm but it’s the 2-3 inch type snows that are a pain in the a**

19 and from Texas. So I get excited when I see a single flake. Last Winter was my first one here, so naturally it had to be the 2nd worst winter on record.

[jaster220]

So, the GFS is painting a nice LES conditional outbreak in the wake of the Fri-Sat storm. 

 

 

[bud2380]

Just curious how old is everyone here? I find the cold/snow to be more of a nunance than anything as I get older

 

When I was in middle school I used to love snow because of snow days and I didn’t have to drive in it but now it kind of sucks. I still love a good snow storm but it’s the 2-3 inch type snows that are a pain in the a**

 

I'm 37.  And I'm the same way.  I don't like cold at all, but i love snow.  I really enjoy tracking it and watching it fall, and now getting out and playing with the kids in it.  But if someone else wouldn't mind clearing my driveway for me, that would be great. 

[Niko]

So, the GFS is painting a nice LES conditional outbreak in the wake of the Fri-Sat storm. 

 

20171113 12z 150hr GFS 850mb for Sun Nov 19.jpg

[Niko]

Currently cloudy and cold w temps @ 39F. Running BA.

[Stormgeek]

Just curious how old is everyone here? I find the cold/snow to be more of a nunance than anything as I get older

 

When I was in middle school I used to love snow because of snow days and I didn’t have to drive in it but now it kind of sucks. I still love a good snow storm but it’s the 2-3 inch type snows that are a pain in the a**

19 and 100% Minnesnowtan. I could do without the brutal cold, but I love the snow. Seems to be a trend around here.

[jaster220]

 

If that pans out, yby could be in for some genuine "Squall Warning" wx

[Tom]

12z GFS/EURO were night and day after Day 5.  The only thing they had in common, both tanked the AO/NAO..GFS down to -5 by the 21st, Euro -3.  You think the models are having problems???  It's an understatement.  The Euro has a -2 NAO by the 21st, GFS nearly -4...big time blocking pattern should spell interesting results next week.

 

Meantime, 12z EPS seems to be picking up on the Pre-Thanksgiving system.  Some members are pretty juiced up.  So today, we have seen an uptick in the wintry potential next week from both the 12z GEFS/EPS.

[clintbeed1993]

Money is a troll.  I've given him a warning in the past.  It's best to just ignore him.  You are allowed to complain about the weather in a weather forum.  It falls under weather discussion.  What you're not allowed to do is attack posters.  That is what Money is all about.  If it was up to me he would be kicked off the board.

[james1976]

12z GFS/EURO were night and day after Day 5.  The only thing they had in common, both tanked the AO/NAO..GFS down to -5 by the 21st, Euro -3.  You think the models are having problems???  It's an understatement.  The Euro has a -2 NAO by the 21st, GFS nearly -4...big time blocking pattern should spell interesting results next week.

 

Meantime, 12z EPS seems to be picking up on the Pre-Thanksgiving system.  Some members are pretty juiced up.  So today, we have seen an uptick in the wintry potential next week from both the 12z GEFS/EPS.

Is there a chance this system could be a share the wealth west-east type system?

[buzzman289]

49 yrs old and love the cold and snow. i have  always said you can put more clothes on to stay warm. can't take them all off in the summer heat