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East and Gulf Coast Weather 2018

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#201
iFred

Posted 18 May 2018 - 11:46 AM

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Had some decent thunderstorms roll through north of Ft Worth last night. nearly 100ª in the area.



#202
Andie

Posted 18 May 2018 - 04:43 PM

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Way north Fred. Didn't even see the lightning.
Hot today too. Like 99.

Didn't stop the golfers though!

Rain would be nice though.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#203
iFred

Posted 18 May 2018 - 05:27 PM

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Way north Fred. Didn't even see the lightning.
Hot today too. Like 99.

Didn't stop the golfers though!

Rain would be nice though.

 

It was hot, but it was windy. I liked that.



#204
Phil

Posted 19 May 2018 - 01:13 PM

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Between 5-10” of rain has fallen across the area this month so far. Drought is history.

And there’s more coming. Severe chances increase again on Monday as well. Perhaps as early as Sunday.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#205
Andie

Posted 20 May 2018 - 10:00 AM

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Hope you get your Rain Phil.

Western Texas is dealing with drought and we are all on standby for it. Fearsome things Drought.
They believe the area will expand this summer.

We received a nice thunderstorm early this morning.
.75" of rain. Still overcast and high will be in the mid 80's.

Just a grand thing, thunderstorms. We'd like more!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#206
weatherfan2012

Posted 20 May 2018 - 02:02 PM

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Between 5-10” of rain has fallen across the area this month so far. Drought is history.
And there’s more coming. Severe chances increase again on Monday as well. Perhaps as early as Sunday.

the models today have really lesson the thunderstorm chances at least for tommore as the data has gotten more aggressive with pushing the front futher south on recent runs where as before they had it stalled in our region the big question is how far north does it come back on Tuesday or is this is one of these cases where the front gets hung up to the south and we get just showers with the next fronted system Tuesday through Wednesday night.next weekend and last week of may may have a weak tropica system in the gulf if so another heavy rain potential sometime in the last week of may seems like a likey hood.regardless how this week's gos we could be looking at a repeat of the severe weather pattern end of may or early june but this time adding a tropica depressing or storm to the mix?

#207
OKwx2k4

Posted 20 May 2018 - 07:52 PM

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So, Phil, I was just dropping in to ask you a question. You posted some charts a few days back in the western group. I couldn't help but notice that they correlated quite well with how winter has shown up later each season since the last one showed a negative anomaly in 2000, and then 2002. Since, they were all positive. I wish I could remember the names of the 3 charts you used. IF we see the flip that you speak of over there at times, does this mean that we could end the cold springs and start seeing normal autumns and winters again over the next few years? Talking generally and Nationwide. I know each season is different, but I was just curious as to what you thought. There seems, to my eyes and by looking at various things like SSTS, to be a major climate transition set to occur over the next year or 2. Thoughts? I'm not talking like October 2000 kind of cold but at least not blowtorching through December 20th from my area all the way to the east coast would be a nice treat. Anyway, you provoked my curiousity.

#208
OKwx2k4

Posted 20 May 2018 - 08:03 PM

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This is the chart.
Attached File  K6fG807.png   13.16KB   1 downloads

#209
Andie

Posted 21 May 2018 - 06:24 AM

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Hey Phil, What's your take on the drought around the Texas Panhandle?

Will it migrate/grow east or west?

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#210
Phil

Posted 21 May 2018 - 09:38 AM

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This is the chart.
K6fG807.png


That’s the Sep-Nov Atlantic meridional mode. Essentially, the SSTA contrast between the equatorial Atlantic and the tropical North Atlantic.

If that flips, it represents a huge shake-up in the seasonality of the global circulation, and yes, you would see colder autumns in the Arctic, retracting z-cells, and probably a reversal in some of the climate trends in recent decades.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#211
OKwx2k4

Posted 21 May 2018 - 01:13 PM

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That’s the Sep-Nov Atlantic meridional mode. Essentially, the SSTA contrast between the equatorial Atlantic and the tropical North Atlantic.

If that flips, it represents a huge shake-up in the seasonality of the global circulation, and yes, you would see colder autumns in the Arctic, retracting z-cells, and probably a reversal in some of the climate trends in recent decades.


That's the way I thought I understood it! Thank you sir!
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#212
Andie

Posted 25 May 2018 - 02:48 PM

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First week of June....100* to 104*.


WHA .!!....... 6 weeks too early!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#213
weatherfan2012

Posted 26 May 2018 - 02:58 PM

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Today was the classic humidity dewpoint swamp dewpoints 70 degrees temperatures not really hot but high humidity plus few dew points made it quite disgusting today for sure.

#214
Phil

Posted 26 May 2018 - 03:08 PM

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High of 91*F today before convection started.

Now a humid 75/74 with thunder and mist following the early afternoon thunderstorm.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#215
Phil

Posted 26 May 2018 - 03:11 PM

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Tomorrow looks like a more active convection day than today. Not sure about severe stuff given the lackluster shear, but heavy rainers w/ lightning and a few isolated microbursts are within the realm of possibility.

IE: A typical summer pattern.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#216
Andie

Posted 26 May 2018 - 05:16 PM

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Honestly guys,....why is it so hot so very soon in Texas.

This is Late June temps

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#217
weatherfan2012

Posted 26 May 2018 - 06:29 PM

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Tomorrow looks like a more active convection day than today. Not sure about severe stuff given the lackluster shear, but heavy rainers w/ lightning and a few isolated microbursts are within the realm of possibility.
IE: A typical summer pattern.

missed the storms here one went north and the others went around us those we did get a nice none thunder down pour for a few moments.one of these classic case storms go up and collapse case day as nothing really to sustain them for to long.as you said Phil classic summer pattern.have to say for a spring coming off a weak La niña pattern the severe weather season for spring in most of the country was lame at best.those the biggest severe weather spring seasons has tended to come with years isolated with moderate to strong ninas spring 2011 and 74 and 1999 were all examples of huge tornado severe thunderstorm outbreaks in the mid west Ohio valley that came off of moderate or strong ninas.

#218
weatherfan2012

Posted 27 May 2018 - 01:05 PM

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Getting hit this evening heavy rainers and lots of lighting and booming thunder.man Baltimore 695 is getting hammered according to radar storms just training over the same locations have not seen this in a few years.

#219
weatherfan2012

Posted 27 May 2018 - 01:52 PM

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Those poor folks in Ellicott city another very bad flooding event in Ellicott city happening this is just bad to see go down for them once again.

#220
Phil

Posted 27 May 2018 - 03:01 PM

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Truly awful. Reports of 13” of rain in 3hrs, following a very wet week and month w/ (over 10” of rain had already fallen before today).

https://mobile.twitt...837414288420864
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#221
OKwx2k4

Posted 27 May 2018 - 07:53 PM

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Truly awful. Reports of 13” of rain in 3hrs, following a very wet week and month w/ (over 10” of rain had already fallen before today).

https://mobile.twitt...837414288420864


That's truly tragic.

If you don't want to get angry, don't read the comments in that tweet. People are either agenda driven, stupid, selfish or just outright insensitive.
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#222
Phil

Posted 27 May 2018 - 10:28 PM

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That's truly tragic.

If you don't want to get angry, don't read the comments in that tweet. People are either agenda driven, stupid, selfish or just outright insensitive.


Meh, people have a right to believe what they want. No point in getting angry over stuff you can’t control. ;)
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#223
OKwx2k4

Posted 28 May 2018 - 01:19 AM

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Meh, people have a right to believe what they want. No point in getting angry over stuff you can’t control. ;)


True. Some days I need to chill a bit myself. Guilty. Lol
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#224
iFred

Posted 28 May 2018 - 03:17 PM

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Finally back home in Philly after three weeks of business travel. It seems like we have a few days of just cooler and damp weather with the wild card being where Alberto's remnants end up at.



#225
Andie

Posted 29 May 2018 - 04:59 AM

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Welcome back Fred.

Texas is just in this incredible squeeze of heat.
Blazing hot for late May, early June in Texas . Hope this isn't the trend, however....

Here ya go.

Attached File  IMG_3136.GIF   34.79KB   0 downloads

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#226
Phil

Posted 29 May 2018 - 11:54 AM

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84/74 and hazy this afternoon. Swampy by late May standards, but I’ll be craving “cool” days like this soon enough.

I hate summer. Need some severe weather ASAP to get me through the next 8 weeks. Then I’m heading out west for the dog days. :wub:
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#227
Andie

Posted 29 May 2018 - 03:32 PM

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NOAA  2018 Summer heat and moister outlook 

 

maps

 

https://unofficialne...u-need-to-know/


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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#228
OKwx2k4

Posted 29 May 2018 - 09:37 PM

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84/74 and hazy this afternoon. Swampy by late May standards, but I’ll be craving “cool” days like this soon enough.

I hate summer. Need some severe weather ASAP to get me through the next 8 weeks. Then I’m heading out west for the dog days. :wub:


Hate to say it to ya but take this central CONUS ridge up and drop it off in the PNW or the west on your way there if you don't mind buddy. :lol:
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#229
Phil

Posted 31 May 2018 - 01:46 PM

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Dewpoint of 76*F today. Blech.

Looking forward to the cool/dry stretch from Sunday onwards.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#230
Andie

Posted 31 May 2018 - 03:07 PM

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High of 93 coming, may break out my parka! Cool front baby!
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#231
Phil

Posted 31 May 2018 - 03:30 PM

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One of the heaviest downpours I’ve ever seen today.

2.25” of rain in 15 minutes, 1.78” in 10 minutes, peak rain rate approaching a foot per hour.

45cs15e.jpg
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#232
Phil

Posted 31 May 2018 - 06:07 PM

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Approaching 3” of rain on the day, and 8” of rain on the month.

Should be good in the drought department until at least the middle of July, but it only takes a few weeks under a death ridge to change the equation.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#233
Phil

Posted 31 May 2018 - 06:48 PM

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Dewpoints are gonna suck tomorrow.

I’m putting the over/under at 77*F here.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#234
Phil

Posted 01 June 2018 - 03:08 AM

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Lol, we had our diurnal low yesterday during the downpour..temps warmed thru the night, now in the low/mid 70s as the Sun rises.

Probably a 92/75 type day today. 🤮
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#235
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 June 2018 - 04:19 AM

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This is for Andie's neighborhood. Stay cool Texans.

https://patriotpost....mers-texas-heat

#236
Andie

Posted 01 June 2018 - 04:38 AM

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Thanks for posting that! It sadly, reaffirms what I have feared. This will be a hell of a summer for the southern plains.

I agree with the hurricane concerns as well. This is deadly heat and to hit in June is dificult to adjust to.

Keep us in your forecasts guys ! Thanks

Attached File  IMG_3169.PNG   265.19KB   0 downloads
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#237
Phil

Posted 01 June 2018 - 01:08 PM

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Not as bad as I thought it would be this afternoon. Afternoon temp/dew of 89/73 with a heat index hovering around 95*F, so pretty typical stuff.

FWIW, Sunday could see highs in the 60s with steady rain all day. Looking forward to it, since stratiform rains are rare here during the summer.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#238
weatherfan2012

Posted 01 June 2018 - 01:15 PM

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Not as bad as I thought it would be this afternoon. Afternoon temp/dew of 89/73 with a heat index hovering around 95*F, so pretty typical stuff.
FWIW, Sunday could see highs in the 60s with steady rain all day. Looking forward to it, since stratiform rains are rare here during the summer.

it also rare to have a set up in the summer months where we get a coaster low noreaster like system.the models are a bit in a disagreement those on the exact placement of the low if the low forms futher south the heavest rain especially Sunday maybe be in southern Maryland VA.if it a bit north Maryland pa may see the heaviest rains a bit of a challenge where the heaviest rains set up this weekend.

#239
Phil

Posted 04 June 2018 - 01:39 AM

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Another 3.03” of rain yesterday..2AM high of 72*F with temps falling into the mid-50s during the afternoon hours.

We’ve had close to 7” of rain over the past week, and close to a foot of rain over the last month. Would be more than enough to sustain the ecosystem through the months of June and July, should we enter into another drought pattern.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#240
Andie

Posted 04 June 2018 - 03:21 AM

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Wow! Rain ! A solid heavy shower, thunder, lightning, the whole show!

High of 88* forecast. Going to enjoy it while I can.
At 6:25am we have thunder, lightning. Rain a county away. .......Bliss

Tomorrow will be 96 so I'm going to grab me some cooler weather!
I don't know where it came from....but I won't complain.

Update: temp at 2 pm 78*. 😊
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.


#241
Phil

Posted 05 June 2018 - 09:58 AM

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Strong downsloping winds this afternoon..5min sustained of 38mph, gusting to 44mph at peak.

Temps are nice though. Low humidity, highs around 80*F.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#242
Phil

Posted 05 June 2018 - 12:22 PM

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One of the bigger Potomac floods in memory. Could hear the river thundering all night into the Booze Creek outlet.

Took a few vids myself, which I’ll post later.

https://www.washingt...m=.f5a6bde94124
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#243
Andie

Posted 05 June 2018 - 02:18 PM

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That is pretty amazing.

Baseball sized hail hit between Dal./Ft.Worth.

The storm bypassed me SWof Ft. Worth. I heard nothing and received no rain. It hit like a train.

http://dfw.cbslocal....it-north-texas/



Attached File  IMG_3206.JPG   116.08KB   0 downloads
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#244
iFred

Posted 08 June 2018 - 07:30 AM

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So much patio furniture destroyed with that.

 

 

In Lansdale, just north of Philly, it has been a pleasant and cool week. It has been nice to keep all of the windows open.



#245
OKwx2k4

Posted 08 June 2018 - 10:57 AM

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That is pretty amazing.

Baseball sized hail hit between Dal./Ft.Worth.

The storm bypassed me SWof Ft. Worth. I heard nothing and received no rain. It hit like a train.

http://dfw.cbslocal....it-north-texas/



IMG_3206.JPG


I knew there was an impressive storm down there the other day but wow! Hope it didn't tear anything up too badly for you.

#246
Andie

Posted 08 June 2018 - 04:55 PM

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Lol, I didn't even know about it till the news. It was about 25 miles east. We had several days of storms between Ft. worth and Dallas and DFw Airport got hit. One of those crazy fronts that hits, backs up and hits again.
My place received a sprinkle!
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#247
weatherfan2012

Posted 09 June 2018 - 01:50 PM

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Heavy rain producing thunderstorms severe weather not really the Maine threat today the heavy rain and lighting are the Maine threats those can't rule out a severe cell or two.



#248
Phil

Posted 13 June 2018 - 10:57 AM

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Yesterday was the nicest day of the year so far. Then the humidity arrived last night on stiff southerly breezes and today is unpleasant despite cloud cover.

Currently 84/73, heat index 90*F under thick overcast.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#249
Phil

Posted 13 June 2018 - 11:44 AM

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Tomorrow through Saturday looks nice, though. Cold front should cross the region overnight, with cool/dry northwesterly flow dominating over the subsequent few days.

Then things go to crap starting Sunday. Monday looks like mid/upper 90s w/ mid-70s dewpoints. 🤮
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Warm Season 2018
90+ degree days: 5
Thunderstorm Days: 5
Severe Days: 1
Total rainfall: 1.77”
Highest Gust: 54mph
Warmest High: 94.6*F
Warmest low: 65.5*F

Live Weather Stream

#250
weatherfan2012

Posted 13 June 2018 - 12:25 PM

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Tomorrow through Saturday looks nice, though. Cold front should cross the region overnight, with cool/dry northwesterly flow dominating over the subsequent few days.
Then things go to crap starting Sunday. Monday looks like mid/upper 90s w/ mid-70s dewpoints.

we knew it had to come at some point the good news so far at least the hot patterns arnt lasting long.