March 2015 PNW Discussion

[richard mann]

Full latitude West Coast troughing on the 12Z GFS!

 

Mountain snow??

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_264_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 At about this time per my main colder air mass projections—more basic movement looked at along with more general distribution.

 

.. I have cold at its farthest reach south—general troughing potential, with its having begun to spread more south daily on the 27th of February. This with where looked at more longitudinally, colder air's having just begun to pick up its pace more eastward following after a more extended period of more slowed movement east.

 

— Put these ideas together, and the scenario depicted here has some amount of plausibility leastwise. 

[Jesse]

New and improved obs site!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z still showing cold onshore flow....

[HighlandExperience]

18z still showing cold onshore flow....

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015030218/gfs_z500a_namer_48.png

[Front Ranger]

It was actually much colder in most places..Cleveland OH was one of many cities to break both their all time record low and see their coldest February on record, beating out 1875, despite the growing UHI and supposed CO^2 overload.

 

Truly an incredible pattern. If it had set up about a month earlier, wow.

 

The cold definitely outweighed the warmth over the U.S. the past 30 days.

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Nice contrast between clear skies and setting to the west and the cumulus over the mountains...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty good ensemble support for Western troughing in the extended.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty good ensemble support for Western troughing in the extended.

 

 

Weren't those same ensembles showing like -25C with this current trough about 3 days ago??  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Weren't those same ensembles showing like -25C with this current trough about 3 days ago??  

 

Like one of them. The ensembles are infinitely more useful in the long range...

[TT-SEA]

Like one of them. The ensembles are infinitely more useful in the long range...

 

 

Not sure... Jim was endlessly talking about the ensembles being favorable in the long range when he posted this winter and nothing came out of it.   In fact... it seemed to be the kiss of death.  

[richard mann]

.. With this above Tim, hadn't most of the different models "ensemble" or otherwise, been doing fairly poorly ultimately, where considering the timeframe more specific that you're referring to here more generally. ?

 

"Sweeping generalizations", "broad characterizations".. useful for more personal reconnoitering, at least perhaps I guess. 

 

"Not sure, ..."  I take it back. I guess you had qualified your more genearal recollection of the idea. 

 

— Personally, if it looks good (As in works to show more either whether cold or precip..) I'll take it. Ensemble or more basic run. Generated by whomever.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not sure... Jim was endlessly talking about the ensembles being favorable in the long range when he posted this winter and nothing came out of it.   In fact... it seemed to be the kiss of death.  

 

He was saying that when they weren't. 

[TT-SEA]

He was saying that when they weren't. 

 

 

Of course.  

[Front Ranger]

Not sure... Jim was endlessly talking about the ensembles being favorable in the long range when he posted this winter and nothing came out of it.   In fact... it seemed to be the kiss of death.  

 

Obviously, with Jim there is sometimes wishcasting. There were a couple times he was talking about the ensembles looking great and I honestly couldn't see what he was talking about.

 

They could be wrong, but there is a good signal in the 10-15 day range for western troughing. About as good as we've seen all winter. Let's see if it moves into the 7-10 day range. The mountains here are doing fine, but I know most ranges west of here could really use some wet troughing for a few weeks.

[TT-SEA]

Obviously, with Jim there is sometimes wishcasting. There were a couple times he was talking about the ensembles looking great and I honestly couldn't see what he was talking about.

 

They could be wrong, but there is a good signal in the 10-15 day range for western troughing. About as good as we've seen all winter. Let's see if it moves into the 7-10 day range. The mountains here are doing fine, but I know most ranges west of here could really use some wet troughing for a few weeks.

 

 

It should come now... similar to 2005.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My location gets buried on the 00z while I'm out of state. Its a lock...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fun fact about February 2015 at Salem. Not only was it the warmest since 1892, it was the only February on record without a maximum below 50.

[richard mann]

My sense if more general, is that there's still enough both time and more primary cold—even more upstream—for some decent pattern evolution.

[Front Ranger]

Fun fact about February 2015 at Salem. Not only was it the warmest since 1892, it was the only February on record without a maximum below 50.

 

Interesting. The high temps across the region were probably about the warmest on record for February.

 

However, downtown Portland finished behind 1991, 1968, 1963, and 1958 for overall warmth. Also worth noting that Silverton was not as warm as 1991 and 1963 this February.

 

It's a shame SLE, PDX, and SEA are all so different than they used to be, from a historical comparison standpoint. The 50+ thing may not be influenced by land changes quite as much, but there's no doubt SLE doesn't get as cold as they used to at night.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark Nelsen is definitely in Tim's camp when it comes to a potential pattern change...

[IbrChris]

Obviously, with Jim there is sometimes wishcasting. There were a couple times he was talking about the ensembles looking great and I honestly couldn't see what he was talking about.

 

They could be wrong, but there is a good signal in the 10-15 day range for western troughing. About as good as we've seen all winter. Let's see if it moves into the 7-10 day range. The mountains here are doing fine, but I know most ranges west of here could really use some wet troughing for a few weeks.

I agree there's a good signal for about a 5-7 day period of troughing out west (starting early next week) but as we enter 3rd week of March we should see ridging re-establish along the west coast and a risk for cold to redevelop in the Northeast.

[TT-SEA]

I agree there's a good signal for about a 5-7 day period of troughing out west (starting early next week) but as we enter 3rd week of March we should see ridging re-establish along the west coast and a risk for cold to redevelop in the Northeast.

 

 

Next week looks very warm for most of the country...

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015030300!!chart.gif

[IbrChris]

Next week looks very warm for most of the country...

 

Yep. By 3rd week of March I mean the week of March 16th to 22nd.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Funny that the only spot in NW Oregon above freezing is PDX. A nippy 26 in EUG.

[Jesse]

12z long range would be an absolute miracle for the Cascades.

 

Shame it won't verify.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z long range would be an absolute miracle for the Cascades.

 

Shame it won't verify.

 

I know its amazing. 

[Jesse]

I know its amazing.

The thing that gets me is the the first ten days of March looked equally amazing ten days ago.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The thing that gets me is the the first ten days of March looked equally amazing ten days ago.

 

Not necessarily this good. 

[Deweydog]

The thing that gets me is the the first ten days of March looked equally amazing ten days ago.

Ten days ago the models looked primarily dry and cool. It was dry and cool this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is astounding. Phil nailed it again...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/car/MonthlySeasonalSnow/BGR.png

[Deweydog]

This is astounding. Phil nailed it again...

 

http://www.weather.gov/images/car/MonthlySeasonalSnow/BGR.png

Misleading. There was only 28 days in February while those Januaries had to be cold for 31.

 

#AGWalwayswins

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Misleading. There was only 28 days in February while those Januaries had to be cold for 31.

 

#AGWalwayswins

Nice legal argument there. Though by late February, climb is definitely working against them.

[Deweydog]

Nice legal argument there. Though by late February, climb is definitely working against them.

I think Snow Wizard has made a pretty compelling argument over the years that sun angle is meaningless until about late May or so.

[Jesse]

Ten days ago the models looked primarily dry and cool. It was dry and cool this morning.

Let's not re-write history, contrarian one!

 

There were many runs advertising a decent mountain snow pattern around the turn of the month. Lots of buzz about snow at Andrew's and change! Catch the wave!!

[bainbridgekid]

Zero rain in the next 8 days on the 12z GFS.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_183_precip_ptot.gif

[Jesse]

Zero rain in the next 8 days on the 12z GFS.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_183_precip_ptot.gif

Have you seen the long range though? Looks totally epic!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z operational was kind of an outlier.

[Jesse]

The 12z operational was kind of an outlier.

What was that about all the great ensemble support the upcoming troughing had?

[bainbridgekid]

The 12z operational was kind of an outlier.

Ensemble mean rocking about 5 degrees warmer than the Operational.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[Deweydog]

Let's not re-write history, contrarian one!

 

There were many runs advertising a decent mountain snow pattern around the turn of the month. Lots of buzz about snow at Andrew's and change! Catch the wave!!

Two weeks ago, yes. 10 days ago, no. You were right though about the pattern change hiccup. Jesse was right! Catch the wave of cynical hubris!