March 2015 PNW Discussion

[Deweydog]

510dm thicknesses over Covington???

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 18z GFS is ridiculous...This is wet snow to sea level...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_264_1000_500_thick.gif

[IbrChris]

Ensemble mean rocking about 5 degrees warmer than the Operational.

 

Not what I would call a really wet pattern in the longer range...but could net PDX an inch or so over a week's time.

[IbrChris]

The 18z GFS is ridiculous...This is wet snow to sea level...

 

 

516 dam thickness would probably be snow to sea level...522 or so is usually the rain vs snow cutoff (can vary). Snow especially if precip is moderate-heavy intensity.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another fun run!

[IbrChris]

18z GFS spits out a high of 27 and low of 10 on the 15th...followed by 27/16 on 16th and 35/17 on 17th. I wouldn't pay it much heed.

If it happened it would be the caliber of Nov 1955.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z bottoms SLE out at -10C and 514 thickness....

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z GFS spits out a high of 27 and low of 10 on the 15th...followed by 27/16 on 16th and 35/17 on 17th. I wouldn't pay it much heed.

 

Mark says he looks at the output for SLE as opposed to TTD

[IbrChris]

Seattle numbers are even more fun:

Mar 13: 32/27
Mar 14: 23/15
Mar 15: 18/6
Mar 16: 25/-2
Mar 17: 31/11
Mar 18: 34/24

That said I would have loved to have seen this materialize in January or even early Feb.

[Deweydog]

I'm skeptical about whether 18z will verify.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm skeptical about whether 18z will verify.

It's a lock.

[IbrChris]

850 mb temp gets down to -11.3c at PDX and -14.1c at SEA.

March records:
-12.6c on 3/4/1955 at IAP (former Portland sounding site)
-16.8c on 3/4/1955 at NEJ (former Seattle sounding site)

Guess it's possible that 850s get that cold in March...hasn't been below -10c at SLE since Mar 1971. It's the 18z GFS so must be legit.

[Deweydog]

It's a lock.

I dunno... I've seen other stuff not verify and I wonder if this won't too? For instance, the heatwave last July.

[luvssnow_spokane]

It's a lock.

It's the 18z... 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Seattle numbers are even more fun:

 

Mar 13: 32/27

Mar 14: 23/15

Mar 15: 18/6

Mar 16: 25/-2

Mar 17: 31/11

Mar 18: 34/24

 

That said I would have loved to have seen this materialize in January or even early Feb.

Totally fun!   Won't happen...    I wonder how the tulip festival folks would feel about that?

[bainbridgekid]

Seattle numbers are even more fun:

 

Mar 13: 32/27

Mar 14: 23/15

Mar 15: 18/6

Mar 16: 25/-2

Mar 17: 31/11

Mar 18: 34/24

 

That said I would have loved to have seen this materialize in January or even early Feb.

Where are you getting these numbers?

 

The numbers meteostar spits out are cold, but nothing like that.

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=ksea

[luvssnow_spokane]

One thing I like about the nearly unbelievable 18z is the setup and the trajectory of the cold. We have not seen this setup in most of the other teases and past fails this year. Something about this run that intrigues me is the setup is much better and much more like what we normally see verifying here, making is "slightly" more believable. In the end I highly doubt it occurs and if it does it will moderate significantly but the mountains may be rewarded, which I am hopeful for.

[IbrChris]

I'm predicting highs in low 50s and lows around 40 around March 15th...but I'd gladly like to be wrong.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I'm predicting highs in low 50s and lows around 40 around March 15th...but I'd gladly like to be wrong.

ditto! 

[richard mann]

Addressed to whomever here more generally. 

 

Include this in your speculation / evaluation / assessment more general, relative to what's being shown for the 14th. Cold west (whatever there is of it.) should be, having started to move at a significantly more stepped up pace east, on the 12th or so.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A nice 57/28 spread at SLE today, 56/26 at EUG. 

[bainbridgekid]

A nice 57/28 spread at SLE today, 56/26 at EUG. 

53/22 at OLM.

 

Even SEA got down to 32.

[MossMan]

Had a low of 26 this morning! Loving these cool mornings and warm sunny afternoons.

[TT-SEA]

I am past the point of enjoying frost in the morning. It is sort of annoying now. Like the sunshine though.

[TT-SEA]

A flowery scene from North Bend, WA this afternoon...

 

[Jesse]

Looks like the 18Z was an outlier among the ensembles.

[Jesse]

54/32 today. Very nice. Hoping to see a harder freeze tonight with lower dps.

[GHweatherChris]

I am past the point of enjoying frost in the morning. It is sort of annoying now. Like the sunshine though.

Its not that hard to scrape your car windows man, gimme a break.

[TT-SEA]

Its not that hard to scrape your car windows man, gimme a break.

Not scraping windows. Don't like it messing with my flowers blooming.

[GHweatherChris]

Not scraping windows. Don't like it messing with my flowers blooming.

I will never understand the importance of making sure someone has flowers and they don't die, oh well, I guess it is just me.

[richard mann]

 I'm n]ot [talking about] scraping [frost off my car] windows. I d]on't like it messing with my flowers blooming.

 

They're a lot tougher than you. ... might think.

[TT-SEA]

I will never understand the importance of making sure someone has flowers and they don't die, oh well, I guess it is just me.

It's nice. Love working in the yard. I will never understand the excitement of white grass for an hour in the morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[GHweatherChris]

It's nice. Love working in the yard. I will never understand the excitement of white grass for an hour in the morning.

It was white here this morning til almost 10 am, it was nice to look at.

[GHweatherChris]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

Looks like the ensemble mean is an outlier, thank god.

[TT-SEA]

It was white here this morning til almost 10 am, it was nice to look at.

 

Flowers are much nicer and last much longer.    Our frost was gone by 8:30 this morning.   Soon as the sun touched it.

 

Frost is fine from November - February because its better than dumping rain.    But its never interesting or exciting.    

 

Now a yard full of flowers until October is a sight to behold.    

[GHweatherChris]

Flowers are much nicer and last much longer.    Our frost was gone by 8:30 this morning.   Soon as the sun touched it.

 

Frost is fine from November - February because its better than dumping rain.    But its never interesting or exciting.    

 

Now a yard full of flowers until October is a sight to behold.    

To each their own.

[TT-SEA]

To each their own.

 

 

Most people like flowers.

 

Our yard last July... we do all of the work ourselves and love it.

 

 

[Jesse]

My favorite flowers are the natural breeds that grace the sub-alpine and alpine meadows of the high Cascades for a few short months each year. The wildflowers of the eastern Gorge and high desert that bloom each April-June are also spectacular.

 

Domestic garden flowers are alright, but relatively boring. I guess daffodils in our yard right now are kind of pretty. I'm not biting my nails over potential frost damage, though.

[richard mann]

Frost is fine from November - February ....

Someday, more made to order huh Tim. (?)

 

http://www.proxigee.com/milk_delivery_home-order_form-t.jpg