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After that burst of winds earlier I went down to Redondo to do my walk. Upon arriving I saw a boat out fishing. I knew their was a small craft advisory posted but looked like they were doing ok until they decided to come in. That’s when the story began! Took the video of their first attempt. They tried many other attempts but just wasn’t going to happen as the wind and waves increased. They finally tried to tie off on the pillars and just sit to wait it out. I finally made the decision to call 911 for them. Their was also another fella there and he was on the phone with them as well ( he turned out to be a paramedic). long story short they ended up using divers to get some gas out to them as they were almost out. Then they journeyed towards Des Moines’s Marina which is shelter. Hope they made it ! winds were in the 30-40 mph category and crazy big waves at times.

Meanwhile, in Spokane

Looking back, my pressure reading of 29.31" is the lowest reading for me since February 14th, 2019.

Well +NAO would destructively interfere with -PNA (theoretically) beyond 4-5 days, so that wouldn’t be good, but there’s a growing signal for a Urals High/PV weakening event in December. MJO crossing IPWP would fit that sequence as well. So I’d highlight December 10-20 as the first opportunity for legitimate winter weather out there.

Lock in the Euro!

Well, well, well...

Anyone else working extremely hard today, with the live Masters broadcast on another screen?

The trend away from a warmup after that huge low is really nice to see on the GFS. Plenty of mountain snow and cool troughs later next week on this run.

Just went out to measure. 9 inches, still snowing. Big victory for the WRF and the UW high resolution ensembles and the high resolution NAM. Big loss for the NWS and their automated forecasts, which have us less than 3 inches.

6 inches at least of snow here and still snowing. The UW high resolution models were more accurate than the National Weather Service forecasts.

I had a low of 3 this morning. Certainly not a record for my location, but still some pretty cold air for mid November considering it was 70 here only five days ago.

Happy Friday the 13th! #TGIF...things are about to warm up quite a bit around these parts while back home it's gonna get chilly and windy. The 00z Euro is showing daytime highs in the mid/upper 30's for Chitown and points N & E on Tuesday...Brrr!!! Meanwhile, over here in the desert SW we may be on the verge of more late season record heat as a string of upper 80's is on the way, with the possibility of touching 90F on a couple days next week. On a side note, before I left for AZ I was thinking about how early the leafs turned color this year and it appears almost likely that most, if not, all of the hardy trees will have no leafs on them by the time Thanksgiving week comes around. I haven't seen what it looks like back home but I'm sure there aren't many leaves left on the trees and after this weekends potent systems targeting the GL's there will be many bare trees. This has not happened in a number of years iirc. Was it Nov '13 or '14....gosh, I can't remember what year it was but I do recall how cold it was when I went fishing up into S WI and the edges of the lake was frozen over early one of those years. Anyway, I like the signals nature is showing and she may be gearing up for a "White Thanksgiving"....I'll explain below... In recent days, the models may now be starting to dial up on potential winter storm system around the 21st that may impact the all-important start of the holiday travel week. Last nights 00z Euro showing a classic pattern with a Canadian HP over the top seeding arctic air and a storm coming out of the central Rockies (CO LOW???). I like the set up and the potential is there for a lot of you north of I-80 to be in the game. Get those Christmas lights up!

Whoa... High latitude blocking signature w/ arctic air teasing with the border. This was not advertised on the 00z.

Wind blown snow! The best

Really if you reflect on how October and the 1st two weeks of November have progressed we should be very happy with things. A few cold shots. Nice mountain snows. Powerhouse westerly jet and perhaps a few deep lows to track. This has been far more interesting and active than previous years. The next two weeks it seems we'll see periods of NWLY flow for more rains and mountain snows. No signs of endless ridging over us either. Can't rule out pre-Thanksgiving snow for someone. C'MON!!!!

The wind woke me up around 5:45 AM. Gusts around 6:30 AM were quite hefty 40mph+. I lost a few limbs off the fir tree. I just now have time to look at all 12z runs. No real big changes. A lot of rain, mountain snows, although the EURO is more bullish than the GFS with that. Still watching Monday night-Tuesday morning as a very deep low may develop offshore. Depending on the exact trough axis position should a sub 970mb low spin up and swing closer to us we'll have to watch that closely. I don't see any signs of a good/amplified block yet. I would say so far this November is playing out like most 1st year Ninas. Real Winter kicks in late December or mid-January usually in 1st year Ninas. Who knows though. Onto 00z!

Just a breezy fall day here in Bellingham, I’m back working temporarily and they have me downstairs in the middle of the building so it’s difficult for me to GOLU. Weather station at my house is showing 45 degrees, barely any wind and .65” in the rain bucket. Last time I did look out the window here the trees were rustling a bit but nothing special.

Willamette Pass and Santiam Pass are doing great this morning, considering we are in the “warm” part of the system.

Here is the storm Tom was referencing on the Euro. Long ways out so plenty to change, but this is looking like a possible overriding event. Those are always fun to be on the happy side of.

Really if you reflect on how October and the 1st two weeks of November have progressed we should be very happy with things. A few cold shots. Nice mountain snows. Powerhouse westerly jet and perhaps a few deep lows to track. This has Nice to see the snow levels coming down below the passes again by the middle of next week.

Was quite a bit windier today than I thought it was going to be, I have quite a clean up to do after this westerly windstorm. Still gusty out there but the power is back on.

Bam as soon as it got dark the snow came, wind blowing it too. I will be up until 12-1am so I'll keep track of any accumulations. For now it seems wet.

Getting some moderate winds here after about an inch of rain last night. I have to say though, a wind storm with mostly sunny skies just doesn't feel as stormy to me as one accompanied by clouds/rain. I found these storms more enjoyable growing up near the ocean where you could see storm's effect on the water.

Beautiful early afternoon in Seattle...

Not all the stations are shown but it was actually quite a bit stronger it looks like. Some spots actually hit 60mph.

Euro has a 980mb low going into Central Vancouver Island .

Was listening to cliff masses friday podcast this morning he was talking about the potential for a big storm on Tuesday. The low on Tuesday is definitely taking a much better track than the potential track for the friday system was showing a couple days ago. It could be one of those storms that keeps all the damaging winds either offshore or just at the coastline or come in a little farther and deliver a big windstorm. Either way at the very least there will be breezy winds, lots of rain and mountain snows coming up with or without a major windstorm. Glad this November is actually acting like November.

Why is that not a good sign? We're in the warm sector, the fact that they are only up to pass level is a good thing if you want to see the mountains do well today.

Cape foul weather station on the Oregon coast gusting to 92mph!

Keep in mind the fact that ensemble means generally fail to pick up red noise processes (or do so unrealistically) at-range. They’re not a tool that should be used to gauge teleconnective relationships or feedbacks, IMO. It’s no coincidence the 2008-12 -PMM/-PDO era leaned -NAO/-PNA on balance, while the subsequent transition to +PMM/+PDO in 2014-18 leaned +NAO/+PDO. Same goes with -PDO era from the 1950s-1970s. And flip to +PDO in the 1980s-early 2000s. Former leaned -NAO/-PNA on balance, latter leaned +NAO/+PNA.

Euro 46 day pna NAO

Up to 1.35" on the day here. Wettest day of the year so far.

Yeah...I have grown to appreciate -NAO more than I used to. Works great to build ridge bridges across the Arctic in combo with a -PNA. I'm actually pleased with the observed weather we have been seeing so far. Some solid cold snaps, but nothing too crazy. It's good that it's holding back for now.

For a winter that is saving its stuff for later, this is going tremendously.

It’ll warm up very briefly then crash right back down again. Should create a pack of wet Cascade Concrete, and then some additional snow on top of that should secure a start to ski season. C’MON!

12z Euro weenie run for many...esp back home! Those are insane totals and it's still snowing...just hope I see these more often Dec-Feb inside 3 days please.

28” base depth at Meadows, Timberline has not updated. Another foot or so and it might be enough to open some lifts.

I see multiple shots of cool air.

It’ll be interesting to see...very easily could end up making landfall 100 miles SE on central/south Vancouver island. That would put it in the same category as other storms like 1962 1981 1993 1995 and 2006. Were kinda overdue for a big one.

WSDOT was showing Stevens Pass at around 30 at 7:00 this morning, but they're down to 24 up there now.

Looks like Hoodoo at Santiam Pass never switched to rain and is up to a 20" base now. 1.60" of rain so far at with this system. 4.85" on the month, about up to average now, should start going above. Power has been out at the house since about 2am.

GFS starting to come around for next weekend system.

Very heavy rain now!! Almost dark as night as well! A little spooky!

That's because right now they are in the warm sector of the storm. The passes will cool throughout the day.

NAM entertains the possibility of another low striking the region tomorrow afternoon. Would likely contain another bout of localized stronger winds and a period of heavier rainfall and mountain snow.

2:00 AM Greatest pressure falls now from Astoria to Long Beach, WA

On the flipside this is about as fast as LLJ's get around here. It's 4am when this verifies, but if you could see any low clouds, they'd be flying by.

06z GFS consolidates the low further and brings it an inch closer.

I am hearing strong winds aloft. Kind of eerie.