1/9-1/10 Panhandler

[Geos]

UKMET at 72 hours

KC close on this one.

 

 

96hr

 

[Tom]

The NAM GGEM and GFS are pretty in step at this stage.  GGEM might be a little slower bring the cold?? Not sure on the the B/W maps are hard to get a read on

I can't really tell either on those maps.

 

Just saw the maps on the GGEM and its the weakest out of all the models bringing a 1002mb SLP into S IN/S IL and doesn't really intensifying much heading NE.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

UKMET at 72 hours

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif

 

Can always count on the UKIE for a strong wound up system.

[Geos]

Can always count on the UKIE for a strong wound up system.

 

Wound up and it seems slower than the other models.

[Iowa2015]

00z GFS...6-8" for Chicago...I like

 

 

 

00z GFS...6-8" for Chicago...I like

I'll take 4-6 on this run been brutal here this year as far as Snow goes

[Tom]

I'll take 4-6 on this run been brutal here this year as far as Snow goes

Your not that far off...there is room for a wobble this far out or widening of the defo band.

[winterfreak]

Money thinks no one has the right to complain. I suppose something to keep in mind though is KC doesn't have nearly the snow climo cities like Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit and Minneapolis do, so it wouldn't be that surprising to have a difficult time hitting the 6" threshold for a storm.

Trust me I know climo isn't indicative for lots of snow here but we've had some whoppers in the last ten years. Just a little frustrated.

[Geos]

Trust me I know climo isn't indicative for lots of snow here but we've had some whoppers in the last ten years. Just a little frustrated.

 

When was your last big one?

[winterfreak]

SMH = "Shaking my Head"...I think maybe we should give the models more time and allow more patience as this is a dynamic situation. You and I both know that things change even within 24-48 hours.

I know what smh means hahaha. Things do often change in the eleventh hour I suppose. We'll know soon enough.

[winterfreak]

When was your last big one?

Feb 14 we sat under the most amazing comma head I've ever experienced. Gave us 8" of our storm total of 14". Was my first winter on the subforum. Same year as the amazing run Chicago had.

[Geos]

Snow is going to blow and drift with this storm.

 

[Geos]

EURO at 72 hours.

 

 

Looks like it may be more marginal than the GFS, UKMET or NAM.

[hlcater]

GFS is definitely widening the band over the past few runs. all I want is to get away with enough snow that we arent brown when the arctic air comes through

[WildWisconsinWeather]

EURO at 72 hours.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016010700/ecmwf_T850_us_4.png

 

Looks like it may be more marginal than the GFS, UKMET or NAM.

 

Do you have a snow map for the Euro?

[Tom]

00z Euro looks better earlier on down towards N AR as the system begins to re-curve to the NNE and begins to try and go neg tilt.  The problem is, the other piece of energy along the SE coast still wrecking havoc on the model and doesn't necessarily go out in one piece.

 

The trend is for more snow earlier on in MO on this run but then the precip stays closer to the SLP.  Wierd run, but in my eyes, it's heading in the right direction.

 

You can see that yesterday's 12z run it had a 998mb SLP in IN at 00z Sun...last night's 00z run it is a 995mb SLP...reason being, you guessed it, 00z run has less of a system near the SE coast.  The problem is, as the run goes on...it still "thinks" there is energy along the EC.  I think the trend will be for the model to fix these "errors".  We'll see.

 

 

[Tom]

Just looked through the GFS/NAM overnight runs and all the models are having issue's trying to figure out what to do with the energy along the SE coastline.  Normally, the stronger northern piece steals the show.  We'll see how the trends go moving forward.

 

GFS def filling in the snow band farther SW.

[Tony]

12z Nam coming in a little slower....hopefully will help down the road.

[gosaints]

Lame NAM run.  Hopefully just a blip

[westMJim]

It’s a mild start today the last hour temp at the airport was 32° and it’s an even warmer 36° here at my house with filtered sun.

As for the weekend system its still too early to pin point and details and remember there is still a lot of time for things to change. But it looks like the best set up we in west Michigan have had this winter for some snow. But just keep in mind a shift of the low to the NW and presto we get rain instead. And a shift too far to the SE and we could just be dry. Or the system may be much weaker then has been indicated.  Funny with all of todays technology we still have to wait until that 18 to 24 (or less) hour window before we really know what is going to happen (most of the time)  Any way best to get gas for the snow blower and dust off the snow shovel  and see how this all plays out.  

[Tom]

We really need that energy to bundle up and wind this system up.  The energy for this system should be fully over the 4 corners later today and models will certainly digest the better data.  Like I said though, once this storm actually starts developing out in the deep south, we will see changes I think.

 

All the models initially see the storm go neg tilt down near AR at 500mb, but then it almost looses steam as it tracks NNE towards the Lower Lakes.  Don't see why that would happen but I like the fact that the models are trending it go neg earlier on.

[Tom]

06z RGEM showing the storm going neg tilt at the end of it's run and blossoming a classic comma shape...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016010706/rgem_ir_us_17.png

 

 

 

It's even showing snowfall down towards the TX Panhandle where I thought it would start taking shape as it rounds the bend of the developing trough.

 

@ OKC, you may manage to get some snow out of this if it can come together!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016010706/rgem_asnow_us_16.png

[OKwx2k4]

@ OKC, you may manage to get some snow out of this if it can come together!

It would be awesome to see. Will be watching the next few runs for sure. It tried to put snow as far south as the OK/AR/MO corners (GFS and EURO) last run so we'll see if the trend continues.

[Tom]

Here is a nice write-up from Gary Lezak regarding this system:

 

 

 

Chicago Is Snow Target Exactly 50 Days Later

by Gary | Jan 7, 2016 | General | 10 Comments

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

A series of storm systems continues to move across Southern California. We are now in the part of the pattern that produced a major snowstorm in Chicago, IL. We have been describing and showing this years LRC as cycling near 50 days. Would it shock you if I told you Chicago had nearly 20 inches of snow (the northern suburbs had 17 inches) on November 20th, and that this next storm is targeting Chicago again on Saturday night, or almost exactly 50 days later?  Here is the LRC Index of the first two LRC cycles:

 

 

 

In the last cycle we had a blizzard on one side of this next storm and a severe weather outbreak on the warm side of this storm.  This is one of the storms that we believed would produce a big snow near Kansas City, and we have to continue to watch it closely, but it appears that it will track just south and east and intensify as it approaches Chicago Saturday night.

 

 

In the first LRC cycle the three storms were a bit closer together and they got absorbed into the bigger third one, somewhat like what is happening now once again. But, this time the lead two storm systems were just slightly stronger. This one coming across today needs to weaken a bit faster and then it would leave room for Saturday’s storm to intensify closer to Kansas City.

[Tom]

This storm is dumping snows in my second home state of AZ.  Flagstaff getting rocked with over a Foot of snow thus far and still snowing hard.  This is a lot of snow for AZ standards.  They are forecasting 10-20" of total snowfall out that way.  Could be a top 10 highest snowfall.  Kinda makes me want to fly out there and go witness some of these storm systems and hit the slopes!

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/media/fgz/FXC/files/HistoricalSnow.png

[Tom]

12z GFS not that impressive...

[Tom]

12z JMA...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016010712/jma_apcpn_us_3.png

 

 

@ 48HR...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016010712/jma_T850_us_4.png

 

@ 72 HR...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/jma/2016010712/jma_T850_us_4.png

[jaster220]

12z GFS not that impressive...

 

Till you're north of the border

[Tony]

East is the way to go with the 12z runs. At least they are colder and show mostly snow.

[Tom]

@ OKC, 12z RGEM stepping towards more snow near you...its the only model that is stronger and farther NW...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016010712/rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16.png

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2016010712/rgem_asnow_us_16.png

 

Some of that may be mixed near OKC...

 

More importantly, I think the high rez model is completely focusing in on the energy in the south and weakening the waves up towards Canada.

[Geos]

If you remember the GFS and NAM weakened the snow band 48-60 hours before the 28th storm. Then it came back in a big way. Models are pulling that stunt again.

Usually the northern piece steals the energy is true. I hope it doesn't trend anymore east now!

[winterfreak]

Yep when Lezak writes it off it's time to stop hoping for a miracle.

[jaster220]

If you remember the GFS and NAM weakened the snow band 48-60 hours before the 28th storm. Then it came back in a big way. Models are pulling that stunt again.

Usually the northern piece steals the energy is true. I hope it doesn't trend anymore east now!

 

She's goin east baby!

[Tom]

12z GGEM...looks good early, then craps out...

[Tony]

12z models injested some bad stuff...probably from Chipotle

[Tom]

12z models injested some bad stuff...probably from Chipotle

HAHA...ROTFL...that made me laugh...good one Tony!  Ya, could be just medium range funk.  Like Geo's said, (and I recall Skilling saying this before), models back off then come back to the bigger solution as we get closer.  I like to see what happens when the energy skirts the 4 corners by tomorrow and then start seeing the trends.

[OKwx2k4]

12z GGEM...looks good early, then craps out...

I vote GGEM for the win. Lol. Also shows an inch of rain. Lol. Like I need that. Haha.

[OKwx2k4]

I'm starting to get a tad selfish. Lol

[Maxim]

lol @ everyone who jumped down my throat yesterday.

[Tom]

I'm starting to get a tad selfish. Lol

True fans of Snow will do that!  All good...

[Tom]

RPM model still looking good for Chicago...has it falling as all snow...nice band sets up down towards STL and up this way...