March 2016 Observations and Discussion

[Geos]

Surprised you think it heads to your backyard...

 

You want it all right!? 

lol

 

I'm just saying the EURO is south it looks like because it might be seeing the teleconnections. 

[gosaints]

You want it all right!?

lol

 

I'm just saying the EURO is south it looks like because it might be seeing the teleconnections.

I could take it or leave it this time of year. If the years trend hold it will trend lame anyhow

[Money]

Gfs pretty much stayed the same but it was a degree or two warmer and really expanded on the fzr threat still 24-30 inches of snow up by Wausau. Ggem came in a bit farther south than gfs and looks like a lot of qpf

 

0z nam is also a bit south of gfs at hr 84 and about 2-3 degrees colder and has snow breaking out in southern wi at hr 84

[Money]

Here's GGEM at HR 102 with another 18 hours of snow in the snow areas:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016032000/gem_asnow_us_17.png

[Money]

Even gets snow down to Geos/Milwaukee area during the start of the storm:

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type_glb/2016032000/I_nw_EST_2016032000_093.png

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type_glb/2016032000/I_nw_EST_2016032000_098.png

 

 

 

Snows from HR 93 to 120+

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type_glb/2016032000/I_nw_EST_2016032000_120.png

[Money]

lol GGEM. Obviously ratios won't be 10:1 but Pivotal Maps are out to 54 so should be interesting to see the amounts it shows and how much FZR falls down towards Milwaukee. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2016032000/gem_asnow_us_23.png

[Geos]

GGEM thru 138 buries central - southern WI. Ice on the southern edge for Milwaukee and Madison.

 

[Money]

lol?

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160320/00Z/f126/acckucherasnowmw.png

[Money]

48 HR QPF:

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160320/00Z/f132/48hqpfmw.png

[Geos]

Probably a bit over done. 

Front stalls out around I-80. South of where the GFS has it. Let's see what the EURO has.

[Money]

Yeah it's def. overdone  and GGEM usually under does the temps for the most part.

[Geos]

Yeah it's def. overdone  and GGEM usually under does the temps for the most part.

 

Otherwise that would be historic!

 

EURO ejects the low further south in southeast CO.

[Money]

EURO HR 72:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160320/00Z/f072/sfcmslpconus.png

 

HR 96:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160320/00Z/f096/sfcmslpconus.png

 

850 MB line down near Geos area:

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160320/00Z/f096/850mbtempsconus.png

[Geos]

Freezing line lays out from Milwaukee to Madison at hour 84.

 

Warm front is south of Kankakee.

[Money]

Freezing line lays out from Milwaukee to Madison at hour 84

 

Warm front is south of Kankakee.

 

Could you post the snow map once it's fully out? Sucks not to have it and it seems like we are the only ones who care about this storm since hardly anyone else is posting last couple days except Tom lol 

[Geos]

Rain/snow, mix breaks out across northern IL and southern WI at hour 90.

 

Southern WI is going to get blasted I think...

[Money]

HR 120 has a 993 L in C. Indiana. 850 mb temps below 0 all the way down near chicago. 

[Geos]

Freezing line then travels south through northern IL... Big time cold sector precip.

 

For here it's really never rain, more like a mix to all snow before 108 hours.

 

Snow gets all the way down to Peoria on this run.

[Money]

How much cold sector precip we talking about? 1-2 QPF? 

[Geos]

How much cold sector precip we talking about? 1-2 QPF? 

 

Just waiting for one more time period to load. Milwaukee up to two feet and still snowing...

 

Everything from Sheboygan back to about Prairie du Chien on southeast is 2"+. That area extends into northern Cook County.

[Money]

So we have the GGEM, EURO, and GFS all showing 24+ in the heaviest snowband and we will be in NAM range tomorrow.

 

Interesting...

[Geos]

Holy Cow! 30" for Milwaukee

Biblical

 

[Money]

On the northern edge but still 12+ here. 

 

This is insane. 

[Money]

Now do we start a thread and risk jinxing it or just keep it in here?

[Geos]

On the northern edge but still 12+ here. 

 

This is insane. 

 

Temps are in the 20-25° range in your area during the height of the storm and that's during the day.

 

Let's wait until this time tomorrow. ~

[Money]

Could you imagine if this actually did happen and some areas get 12-24+ imagine the reaction people would have

[Geos]

Could you imagine if this actually did happen and some areas get 12-24+ imagine the reaction people would have

 

It's hard to think about in the last 7 days of March. A lot of people would flip out or not believe it until it started happening. 

Would be a white Easter for sure! 

EURO has lows 0-10° the night after the storm over the snow covered areas.

 

O, and another snowstorm happens a week from now from NE to NE WI. 6-10". About 5" for Oshkosh.

[Money]

Yeah we have been spoiled so much this winter and especially the last few weeks that it doesn't shock me to a snow storm.

 

I know a lot of schools are on spring break this upcoming week as well lol 

[Hawkeye]

Wow, that's quite the shift south from the euro, and the uk as well.  Most of the snow would still fall north of CR, where everything has fallen this winter, but I wouldn't mind seeing a few inches.  This run would at least be a nice soaker as well.

[gosaints]

Euro trolling geos?

[Money]

Good agreement

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/f96.gif

[Money]

HR 84 NAM

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160320/06Z/f84/sfcconus.png

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160320/06Z/f84/crefptypeconus.png

[Hawkeye]

At 00z Thursday, the GFS has the 500 mb low over Sioux City, while the euro has it over nw Kansas... quite the speed and track spread.  Oddly, DVN barely mentioned the big shift south on the euro, and our locals are still saying 50s Wednesday(euro 30s).

[Madtown]

Interested, but in the camp I'll believe it when I see it mentality

[Money]

LSE AFD:

 

SO...AFTER ALL THAT NICE WEATHER THE FIRST PART OF THE MONTH...IT

ALMOST HURTS TO TALK ABOUT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WHAT COULD BE A

SIZABLE WINTER STORM SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY

THAT IS INDEED THE CASE WITH GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THIS RANGE

THAT A VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL

PLAINS/UPPER MISS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. OUR NEXT

PIECE OF DIGGING WESTERN ENERGY LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH SAID GRADIENT

TO POTENTIALLY SPIN UP QUITE THE SURFACE CYCLONE SOMEWHERE OVER THE

CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH THAT FEATURE RIDING UP TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT

LAKES BY THURSDAY. ALL THE WHILE...A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION OF LOW

LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH ONTARIO GIVES THE IMPRESSION THAT WE WILL SEE

PLENTY OF COLDER/DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTH INTO THE AREA ALL WHILE

GULF MOISTURE RIDES UP AND OVER A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE NEARBY.

 

SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THE POTENTIAL IS DEFINITELY THERE FOR A MESSY

WINTER STORM ACROSS THE CWA...THOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS OF COURSE

REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN. WITH THAT SAID...EVEN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AT

THIS RANGE IS IN SURPRISING AGREEMENT WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM

NORTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS - ONE THAT CERTAINLY

FAVORS MUCH OF OUR CWA FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...THOUGH TO

BE FAIR THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GEM/ECMWF HAVE TRENDED A

BIT SOUTH. DEFINITELY WORTH PLAYING UP THE IDEA OF A POSSIBLE

STORM DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO STILL

SORT OUT THE DETAILS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

 

PEEKING AHEAD BEYOND THE POSSIBLE STORM...LOOKING FAIRLY QUIET

INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL BUT SOME HINTS OF

ANOTHER SYSTEM MAKING AN APPROACH LATER SATURDAY INTO EASTER

SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE OF COURSE TRICKY DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR READINGS TO HOLD BELOW FREEZING PENDING

THE TRACK OF HEAVIER WINTRY PRECIPITATION. SIMILARLY...BY LATE

WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...IF WE DO REALIZE SIGNIFICANT SNOW

OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...THE TEMP RESPONSE WILL BE QUITE MUTED.

STAY TUNED!

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Interested, but in the camp I'll believe it when I see it mentality

 

Yeah, I think this is pure trolling by the Euro, pretty sure the heavy snow sets up to our north.

[NEJeremy]

Could you imagine if this actually did happen and some areas get 12-24+ imagine the reaction people would have

lol

[NEJeremy]

Could you post the snow map once it's fully out? Sucks not to have it and it seems like we are the only ones who care about this storm since hardly anyone else is posting last couple days except Tom lol 

That's because no one cares if you get snow. Sound familiar?

[Money]

That's because no one cares if you get snow. Sound familiar?

 

You sound salty 

[bud2380]

My subscription to WxBell expired and I'm not renewing it until next winter, but I looked at the Weather Undergroup ECMWF map and it shows a deformation band of snow in SE Iowa into NC IL and SE WI developing after the leading leading edge comes through.  It's a narrow band and to be honest, not something I'd remotely get my hopes up for.  The leading wave will produce the most snow and at this time it sure looks like northern IA and especially southern MN into Western and central WI are the prime spots.  Probably about time to start a thread for it.