Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 12z NAM coming in a tad farther south than 6z/0z and quite a bit colder. The HP in Canada is a bit stronger and south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Looks like parts of NE really cash in as well. Here is the 12z NAM. http://i.imgur.com/BmbiHAG.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 I'm out of play for this one unless the Euro deformation band holds up, but that's 4 days out for that part of the storm, but some areas look like they could do pretty good with this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 NAM is just getting started with the storm at the end of the run. Here's 06z NAM at HR 84: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160320/06Z/f84/crefptypemw.png Here is 12z at HR 78 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160320/12Z/f78/crefptypemw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 HR 84: 991 L in NW MO http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160320/12Z/f84/crefptypemw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Towards NE: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/nam/20160320/12Z/f84/acckucherasnowc.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Looking.forward to moneyman backyard posts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Looking.forward to moneyman backyard posts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 You and geos can tug it north and south 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Anyone else not getting email notifications??? Wondering if there is a system glitch or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 i know there is a glitch in the computer for GFS lol "running too long" LOL 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 12z GFS finally starting to run. Out to HR 12 On that note, I am going to move the last several posts over to the storm thread that Bud started. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1238-potential-winter-storm-323-324/ <<< New thread Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 12z Euro with another juicy/cold cutter Day 7...pattern is wild for late March! Euro bias holds back the trough in the SW a little to long for this to phase but I'm sure we will see correction in the coming days for another amplified storm system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Both GFS/EURO tank the EPO Day 9-10 to almost -5/-6 deviation from normal which would agree with their ensembles. If there is snow OTG in parts of the Plains/Midwest/Lakes, I'd imagine some record cold if it works out just right. A lot of the positive departures are likely to take a hit if the snows keep showing up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 The 12z EPS continues to suggest the deepest departures to normal Week 1-2 over eastern N.A. compared to the rest of the Northern Hemisphere. Would be one of the craziest finishes to a season if that comes true. Haven't seen maps like those since 2 winters ago. Complete dislodge of the PV is on the table right into the Lakes! That would be nuts. March 2007 analog riding high if that's the case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Report Share Posted March 21, 2016 Both GFS/EURO tank the EPO Day 9-10 to almost -5/-6 deviation from normal which would agree with their ensembles. If there is snow OTG in parts of the Plains/Midwest/Lakes, I'd imagine some record cold if it works out just right. A lot of the positive departures are likely to take a hit if the snows keep showing up. This weekends cold has brought the departure down some. I can only imagine that if there is snow on the ground that later in the week that positive gain will have been all lost. Cold tonight, already 28 degrees. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 21, 2016 Report Share Posted March 21, 2016 GFS through 264. Has 2 big systems affecting IL/NE/KS etc in the longrun http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160321/00Z/f264/acckucherasnowconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted March 21, 2016 Report Share Posted March 21, 2016 http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/models/ggem/20160321/00Z/f180/24h10_1snowc.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2016 CFSv2 getting much colder for opening week of baseball season, esp near the Lakes...Brewer's may need to brew up some hot cocoa instead! http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20160320.NAsfcT.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 21, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2016 06z GEFS suggest winter to end with a bang bang.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2016 Report Share Posted March 21, 2016 Looks like spring is on hold for a bit. Chilly day with sun today. 41-42° right now. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 21, 2016 Report Share Posted March 21, 2016 Of course it's a long way off,, but GFS does pretty well with air mass temps ,, 500 thk levels down to DSM on 4/04?? That is crazy... 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 21, 2016 Report Share Posted March 21, 2016 This epic cool down has me back below double digits departures for the month. Tomorrow will pull it back up a bit however Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2016 Report Share Posted March 22, 2016 Last 3 days has gotten the departure down to +3.2° now. Not March anymore, but close enough.April Fool's! Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 22, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 22, 2016 Wet and wild is the trend on the CFSv2 for April...April snows in the Plains/Midwest??? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20160322.201604.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20160322.201604.gif Week 2 looks very chilly and stormy... http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk1.wk2_20160321.NAsfcT.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 22, 2016 Report Share Posted March 22, 2016 clouds have really kept down our temps today. was supposed to hit 75, instead we're stuck in the low 60s still. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 22, 2016 Report Share Posted March 22, 2016 06z GEFS suggest winter to end with a bang bang.... Sheesh, more like winter v2.0 if that were to happen verbatim! I'm not into an April '82 redux. pass. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted March 22, 2016 Report Share Posted March 22, 2016 the arctic outbreak showing up for the end of the month looks a lot more mild on the latest GFS. keeps the cold with overnight mins in the teens in the Dakotas and northern Lakes when it had lows below zero on the runs a few days ago. here in eastern Nebraska, we have one night below freezing during the "outbreak" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 23, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 23, 2016 Both Euro/GFS are trying to unleash the PV down into Ontario/Hudson Bay by Day 10. Might even go farther south...who knows. Nonetheless, that would be something spectacular meteorology speaking so late in the season. Mother Nature has her April Fools joke??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 24, 2016 Report Share Posted March 24, 2016 Who wants to play baseball in the snow/cold?? http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160324/12Z/f384/acckucherasnowmw.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/gfshires/20160324/12Z/f336/sfctmw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 24, 2016 Outrageous if that even comes close to panning out. It has ensemble support...Strong Nino's way of saying we'll have a super finish to Winter??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 24, 2016 Report Share Posted March 24, 2016 Who wants to play baseball in the snow/cold?? That would break records. Except for a few days next week, it looks way below normal. Next 10 days. AO driving this? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 24, 2016 EPO is going off the charts towards -6/-5 by April 1st...that is the driver along with a -WPO which we have not seen all season long. Imagine if this was during January! Meantime, Euro trying to develop a major trough on the 31st/April Fools Day in the central CONUS. Models have a tough time figuring out what to do with the energy hanging back in the Rockies. If this can phase with the northern stream, it would produce a monster storm to open April. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 24, 2016 Report Share Posted March 24, 2016 Guess I can forget about seeing any leaf buds or flowers the first week of April! EURO has the Great Lakes trough late next week. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SE Wisconsin Posted March 24, 2016 Report Share Posted March 24, 2016 Hopefully I'll be able to get in one last trip to the UP to get in some late season cross-country skiing before I put the storage wax on the skis. This is looking very encouraging! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 24, 2016 Report Share Posted March 24, 2016 Euro looks like it's ready to unleash the cold after the clipper moves through at HR 240 850's: http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160324/12Z/f240/850mbtempsconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 24, 2016 Report Share Posted March 24, 2016 Euro show any snow anywhere on this run, Tom? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 24, 2016 Euro show any snow anywhere on this run, Tom?A little bit near the Lakes, but nothing huge. Need that storm to phase early on in the Plains. Might have a good shot at doing so when almost all the teleconnections support blocking and a prime pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 24, 2016 Report Share Posted March 24, 2016 Money posted: "Who wants to play baseball in the snow/cold??" EXACTLY! I need some of this, and fast! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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