East/Gulf Coast Weather 2016

[Phil]

What a regionwide bust, can't ever recall one this bad.

 

Strange year so far. I still think we're going to break out of this funk in a big way sometime within the next month.

[Phil]

Currently 90/28 @ Philadelphia International. Ridiculous by east coast standards,

 

Currently 92/64 here, gusts around 40mph.

[weatherfan2012]

That 90 dewpoint 28 is about as dry of a dry heat day you're going to see on the eastern seaboard

[Andie]

Currently 77* with a dew point of 73 and humidity of 91%.

We got .50 " of rain today. Three big downpours. The heavens just opened up.

 

50% chance tomorrow. Hard to say when the scorching heat and dry will hit, but I'm not in a rich.

This is rather nice.

 

Spoke to family in Tucson. 100* this evening. They said they'd seen 112* and have been hotter than Yuma which is rare.

Any indication as to the forecast for their monsoon season ?

[Phil]

If we go two more days without a clap of thunder, it'll be the longest J/J/A stretch without a thunderstorm day since I started keeping track in 2007. I've never seen a pattern with so much potential fall so flat on its face in terms of performance.

 

I have a hunch that we're going to break out of this explosively. If there's one thing I've noticed about this climate, it's that boring stretches usually end with a bang, both literally and figuratively speaking.

[Geos]

Currently 90/28 @ Philadelphia International. Ridiculous by east coast standards,

 

Currently 92/64 here, gusts around 40mph.

 

Wow, that's a crazy low dew point. 

 

Here yesterday it was about that low, but the temps was in the low 60s.

[Phil]

Wow, that's a crazy low dew point.

 

Here yesterday it was about that low, but the temps was in the low 60s.

We eventually plunged to 90/34 a few hours after I posted that. The young redbud tree we planted a few years ago was badly damaged by the winds, unfortunately. Those W/NW winds just hammer this area relentlessly.

 

Weird year. Not just in reference to the odd dewpoints, but mostly to the lack of thunderstorm activity in general. Can't recall such a boring, stagnant weather year in my lifetime.

[Phil]

These low dewpoints are taking a toll on vulnerable vegetation here. Grass and young trees are turning yellow/brown. Almost nothing in the way of rain over the last two weeks. It's like the pattern can't decide what to do.

 

Currently 81/49 with a nice NW breeze.

[Geos]

We eventually plunged to 90/34 a few hours after I posted that. The young redbud tree we planted a few years ago was badly damaged by the winds, unfortunately. Those W/NW winds just hammer this area relentlessly.

 

Weird year. Not just in reference to the odd dewpoints, but mostly to the lack of thunderstorm activity in general. Can't recall such a boring, stagnant weather year in my lifetime.

 

For the most part around here things have been pretty comfortable temperature speaking. There has been like no severe weather in this area at all this year. Not many thunderstorms really either. One storm last month had wind gusts to 45 mph with some really small hail, but that's about the extent of any extreme weather here.

[Phil]

For the most part around here things have been pretty comfortable temperature speaking. There has been like no severe weather in this area at all this year. Not many thunderstorms really either. One storm last month had wind gusts to 45 mph with some really small hail, but that's about the extent of any extreme weather here.

Maddening, right? Almost like she's purposely holding back.

 

Ironically, the strongest storm in several years blew through here in February. We had another high wind event during early April, but since then it's been as boring as I can ever remember here.

 

Now watch a category 4 hurricane track right up the Chesapeake Bay.

[Phil]

I'm gonna flip my f**king s**t if the Thursday MCS misses me to the south (00z NAM). Time to end this bulls**t streak.

 

Literally everything that could go possibly go wrong has gone wrong this spring/summer so far. Enough is enough already.

[weatherfan2012]

We eventually plunged to 90/34 a few hours after I posted that. The young redbud tree we planted a few years ago was badly damaged by the winds, unfortunately. Those W/NW winds just hammer this area relentlessly.

Weird year. Not just in reference to the odd dewpoints, but mostly to the lack of thunderstorm activity in general. Can't recall such a boring, stagnant weather year in my lifetime.

what really weird is the fact we had a june July Augest type thunderstorm set up in febuary winter time yet we can't even by thunder let alone a severe weather event so far this late spring early summer .plus two threats busted very badly reagion wide.something has to give sooner or later as you said.

[weatherfan2012]

Maddening, right? Almost like she's purposely holding back.

Ironically, the strongest storm in several years blew through here in February. We had another high wind event during early April, but since then it's been as boring as I can ever remember here.

Now watch a category 4 hurricane track right up the Chesapeake Bay.

Maddening, right? Almost like she's purposely holding back.

Ironically, the strongest storm in several years blew through here in February. We had another high wind event during early April, but since then it's been as boring as I can ever remember here.

Now watch a category 4 hurricane track right up the Chesapeake Bay.

I don't think I would want to experience a cat 3 or higher hurricane would be the ultimate disaster for this reagion.

[Phil]

I don't think I would want to experience a cat 3 or higher hurricane would be the ultimate disaster for this reagion.

I would root for something like that, unfortunately. It's just my nature.

 

It's happened before and it'll happen again. Might as well get it over with now, right?

[Phil]

Warm front moved through here, dewpoints back up to climatological normals.

 

Currently 82/65, a bit hazy but very nice outside. Cloud cover keeping temperatures down for the time being.

[Phil]

Both the NAM & latest ECMWF bring 3-5" of convective precipitation through here tomorrow evening. Probably too far north for severe weather here, but might be a decent light show if anything.

[weatherfan2012]

Some legitment severe weather happening just to our west with radar showing a pair of supercells with tornado warnings being issued have to watch things over the next few hours around the region.

[Phil]

If these cells miss me to the west, I'll be a miserable wreck for days. They're just so beautiful,

[weatherfan2012]

I here you man hopefully we get into some of the action.we deserve it after the last few fails we had.

[Phil]

* AT 439 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MARTINSBURG... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

 

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.

 

HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

[weatherfan2012]

Good idea to pull that car or truck in a shelter location just in case for those in the path.

[Phil]

Jeeze:

 

 

[weatherfan2012]

Heads up in Arlington nasty storm about to hit there quite a hail core with it to.with tornado warning on it as well.

[weatherfan2012]

Jeeze:

image.png

image.png

beautiful supercell there.

[Phil]

Getting dark out west.

[Phil]

Several wind cores in this line..hopefully they make it here:

 

[Phil]

Garden variety storm here. Heavy rain, 20mph winds, a few nearby lightning strikes. Meh..

[weatherfan2012]

Yeah the models did good with this one which pen pointed the worse would be just west and south of us.and that pretty much what happened.I still think things should start to turn around for us late month early July as La nina starts to have a bigger influence on the pattern.only question would be how far south and west the rige ultimately sets up.but July through September should be alot more favorable for both heat and hopefully a couple rounds of severe weather.plus a tropical threat can not be ruled out eather September or October.

[Phil]

I'm not going to root for heat/humidity. We need shear/dynamics more than anything else, and we'll always have enough instability in mid/late summer. The reason we've had a few decent supercell events this year is due to the lack of a shear-killing death ridge overhead, cooking us into oblivion in the process. We do want a death ridge over the Plains, though.

 

Look what happened in 2011 when that death ridge set up over us. No real severe weather, plenty of 95-100 degree afternoons with 75-80 degree dewpoints. No thanks to that crap.

 

If we can continue to see troughing or vorts roaring through during July/August, things wi get exciting, much like the did during the 1980s.

[Phil]

D**n

That's how I'd describe it too. Nice summary from CWG, with awesome downburst video (second video in).

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/06/17/thursdays-storms-downed-trees-and-dropped-baseball-size-hail-heres-how-it-happened/

[weatherfan2012]

I'm not going to root for heat/humidity. We need shear/dynamics more than anything else, and we'll always have enough instability in mid/late summer. The reason we've had a few decent supercell events this year is due to the lack of a shear-killing death ridge overhead, cooking us into oblivion in the process. We do want a death ridge over the Plains, though.

Look what happened in 2011 when that death ridge set up over us. No real severe weather, plenty of 95-100 degree afternoons with 75-80 degree dewpoints. No thanks to that crap.

If we can continue to see troughing or vorts roaring through during July/August, things wi get exciting, much like the did during the 1980s.

exactly and I'm with you on the heat and humidity.having death riges sit on top of us is about the worse result possable both in lack of convection and the daily misable heat that comes with it.

[Phil]

Looks like this has a chance to be the least-humid June since I've started keeping records here. Average dewpoint is 58 IMBY this month, that's well below the average of 65 for the month.

 

The average July dewpoint is 70 degrees, while average August dewpoint is 73 degrees. How long can this dry stretch last? My gut and the seasonal analogs suggest we're going to pay for this eventually.

[Phil]

It's early, but the GFS loves the Thursday vort. Verbatim, would be another severe outbreak in the area.

[Andie]

It begins.........early.

 

Our wildfires are back and they're at least a month early. Considering we were drowning just 2 weeks ago !

 

There's a brief fire tornado in one video

 

 

https://weather.com/news/news/major-wildfires-burning-across-west-force-evacautions

 

Phil, check your messenger

[Phil]

It begins.........early.

 

Our wildfires are back and they're at least a month early. Considering we were drowning just 2 weeks ago !

 

There's a brief fire tornado in one video

 

 

https://weather.com/news/news/major-wildfires-burning-across-west-force-evacautions

 

Phil, check your messenger

Not surprised in the least. "The flip" was bound to commence down there, given where the climate system is headed.

[Andie]

Not surprised in the least. "The flip" was bound to commence down there, given where the climate system is headed.

Oh it's flipped alright. Hoping we don't have a wildfire season near DFW like in 2008.

 

 

You read the wrong PM by the way. This one has only 1 question. Give it a shot.

[Phil]

Wowzers, this would be severe weather porn if timing and surface instability cooperate:

[Phil]

Haha, the 12z GFS has 5600 surface CAPE for DC on Tuesday.

[Andie]

The division of hot air and cool air in the us is just crazy. Looks like two different continents.

My family is southern Az is sweltering in 115*

 

I'm hoping that High doesn't move over Texas. Opinions?

[Phil]

The division of hot air and cool air in the us is just crazy. Looks like two different continents.

My family is southern Az is sweltering in 115*

 

I'm hoping that High doesn't move over Texas. Opinions?

It will move over Texas sometime in July.