East/Gulf Coast Weather 2016

[weatherfan2012]

This isnt even that impressive in Virginia even looking at radar just ordenary storms.here just moderate rain not even any lighting or thunder.over all this event has Been a bust

[Phil]

This isnt even that impressive in Virginia even looking at radar just ordenary storms.here just moderate rain not even any lighting or thunder.over all this event has Been a bust

Yeah, one of the more significant busts in several years locally. There's activity up north but I'm not sure it'll actually mix down much in the way of wind. Saturated profiles usually = no bueno for widespread wind damage.

 

The February event is still the most impressive event of the year here so far, and probably was the most significant event here since 2014. Those winds were no joke, over 80mph estimated based on damage surveys.

 

Hopefully we surpass it later this month. We usually do well in NW flow/heat ridge patterns.

[Phil]

This is almost as good as the blizzard. First year in on the East Coast paying off.

 

SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f006.gif

How was it up there? Didn't look like it was producing much lightning or mixing down too much wind on the velocity data, but I don't know for sure.

 

We're capable of much better than this garbage. Waiting for our first big CAPE day.

[weatherfan2012]

Yeah, one of the more significant busts in several years locally. There's activity up north but I'm not sure it'll actually mix down much in the way of wind. Saturated profiles usually = no bueno for widespread wind damage.

The February event is still the most impressive event of the year here so far, and probably was the most significant event here since 2014. Those winds were no joke, over 80mph estimated based on damage surveys.

Hopefully we surpass it later this month. We usually do well in NW flow/heat ridge patterns.

the big question will be where that death rige ultimately sets up that will have a big saying how this summer severe weather go's for our reagion.

[Phil]

I'm watching Tuesday carefully, secondary fronts can really surprise around here. Won't have as much antecedent instability or moisture but relatively better vertical dynamics, more insolation, and higher speed shear aloft might compensate for that.

 

Afterwards, modeling suggests we move into a NW flow/heat ridge pattern mid/late June. That's our bread and butter severe weather pattern, so I'm optimistic we score something legitimately epic at some point.

[Phil]

the big question will be where that death rige ultimately sets up that will have a big saying how this summer severe weather go's for our reagion.

Yeah, we don't want it to set up directly over us like in 2011, otherwise we're looking at tons of heat and humidity without much in the way of shear. Ideally, we want it centered over WI/MI/IL/IN/KY.

[Phil]

Intense rain for about 20 minutes and quick flashes of lightning (maybe 10 or so) and long rumbling thunder. Nothing more than that. Didn't even have any good gusts. To the north and south there were more intense cells, but still nothing tornadic.

Well, a garden variety storm is better than no storm. Today is an example of what can go wrong here. Most of the time, it's the lack of instability/too much cloud cover. That problem tends to become less frequent as the summer progresses, however.

[weatherfan2012]

Agreed the sun did come out but it was likey to late the damage by the over cast most of the day it just wasn't enough to over come.and the line was about on top of us by the time the sun came out just not enough time to really get it going.in a case like today we needed the instability to start earlier doing the day to have made it bigger the severe weather event on June 1 2012 while we didn't have much instability we had epic dynamics and energy in place doing that event which made up for the instability issue which was enough for a good event.

[Phil]

Wow @ the 12z GFS this weekend. Would be hard to fail with that kind of setup. #derechotrain

[Phil]

I'm not seeing it

Haha, don't let failures like last Sunday's spread through your psyche. They happen frequently here, especially early in the season when offshore waters are relatively cool/limit dewpoint depressions aloft (easier to saturate profiles aloft).

 

Ideally you guys would want the weekend vort farther north, but that's a great setup for a big event *if timed properly*. If it comes through at like 6AM with zero SBCAPE, then lol, but these sort of vorts produce destructive winds here on a regular basis.

[Phil]

Storm with a hail core/40+mph winds heading for Germantown. They're easily the thunderstorm capital of the state.

 

[weatherfan2012]

Haha, don't let failures like last Sunday's spread through your psyche. They happen frequently here, especially early in the season when offshore waters are relatively cool/limit dewpoint depressions aloft (easier to saturate profiles aloft).

Ideally you guys would want the weekend vort farther north, but that's a great setup for a big event *if timed properly*. If it comes through at like 6AM with zero SBCAPE, then lol, but these sort of vorts produce destructive winds here on a regular basis.

which time frame would this be saterday night or sunday.

[weatherfan2012]

Southern Maryland seems to get hit quite a bit to pretty good line forming there now.another decent cell has popped near Fredrick.

[Phil]

Downsloping winds increasing behind the frontal boundary, gusting to ~35mph. I could see 40-45mph being reached tomorrow behind the vort, sometime between 11AM and 3PM.

 

High today was 88/58, down to 77/50 now, which is as good as it typically gets here in summer.

[Phil]

Looks like dewpoints might drop into the 30s tomorrow afternoon. I can't recall that ever happening this late into June.

[Phil]

which time frame would this be saterday night or sunday.

That's up in the air still.

 

If the vort arrives during the midday/evening, we're in for a great event. If it's blows through overnight, then lol.

[Phil]

Haha, 18z GFS demolishes iFred, would probably be good here too in reality. I'm already excited for this.

 

Has like 4000CAPE/hi speed shear w/ temperatures still 90+ degrees here at 8PM when the MSC/derecho blows through.

[Phil]

Looks like SPC is already on board: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/#

[Phil]

Woke up to a roar and the house shaking. Howling out there right now. Downsloping ftw.

 

Currently sustained at 27mph, gusting to 44mph. Several observed 40-50mph gusts across MD/VA.

[Phil]

Haha, these NW flow vorts never fail, even in the stable early morning hours:

 

AT 1027 AM EDT...STRONG SHOWERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR MANCHESTER TO NEAR WESTMINSTER TO NEAR NEW MARKET...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

 

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

 

If the weekend vort tracks properly, into 90+ degree air, then it's hellz yes.

[Phil]

Another one, lol. #NWFlow

 

UNTIL 1145 AM EDT

 

* AT 1055 AM EDT...SHOWERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WERE LOCATED OVER CATONSVILLE... OR OVER ELKRIDGE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

 

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

[Phil]

[Phil]

A few limbs down in the neighborhood. IAD gusted to 41mph, DCA 40mph, BWI 49mph, PHI 58mph. Latter two came with the morning squall, while our strongest gusts came with the downsloping/gradient winds, as usual.

 

Reached 45mph through the trees.

[Phil]

I could see 40-45mph being reached tomorrow behind the vort, sometime between 11AM and 3PM.

 

Decent call, though these events are usually easy to forecast once the track/timing is determined.

[Phil]

That weekend vort is trending too far north/slow for my liking right now. Someone is going to get rocked, but might end up being folks in central/northern PA and/or NY vs MD/VA if things don't change soon.

 

The NW flow in June is a cornerstone of basically all of our good severe years, so I suspect dominoes will fall properly...eventually.

[weatherfan2012]

Alot of times if the first one is north the next one trends further south from where the one before it track.so I agree that we likey will see a good event before the month is over hopefully the rige positions turns out to be decent in the pattern.

[Phil]

Alot of times if the first one is north the next one trends further south from where the one before it track.so I agree that we likey will see a good event before the month is over hopefully the rige positions turns out to be decent in the pattern.

The pattern is a good one, and we have lots of time left, especially considering developing Niña summers tend to run high octane all the way through September, sometimes through October. Wouldn't surprise me if September ends up being warmer than June overall, given the big heat usually takes until July to really get cranking in these regimes.

 

Only one of my personal top-10 severe thunderstorm events occurred before late June (6/4/08). The rest have occurred from late June through early September.

 

Top Five:

7/25/10

6/29/12

9/8/12

6/4/08

8/31/14

[weatherfan2012]

That 6-4 08 event was pretty special in the reagion with the back to back lines plus supercells in between the lines. That was the event that topper shunt stated that it was the worse event he had ever covered at that time.

[Phil]

That 6-4 08 event was pretty special in the reagion with the back to back lines plus supercells in between the lines. That was the event that topper shunt stated that it was the worse event he had ever covered at that time.

It wasn't all that bad here, but my grandmother out in Reston VA got hammered.

 

The worst event of my life (so far, at least) was the 7/25/10 squall line. That's honestly the only time I can recall being legitimately scared during a weather event. The winds in that thing were far above anything I've ever seen, as only the 6/29/12 derecho and 9/8/12 storm can even remotely compare to it.

[weatherfan2012]

Yeah that event was it bad here eather that 08 event really hit DC southern Maryland and Virginia the hardest especially Virginia .I likey was on vacation away from the state when the 7-25-10 hit.but have heard plenty of talk about that one.

[weatherfan2012]

If we miss tommore the potential for a few of these complexs are there mid to late June and as phil said right through September.El ninos to la nina transitions summers can be late bloomers but once they get going the summers can get very hot and at times active.

[Phil]

Maybe something interesting for me tomorrow and areas just north of Philly. Warm front looks to stall over the Catskills and CAPE is 3k over the Delaware Valley.

 

Not getting my hopes up, but at least it is something for me to watch.

Someone is going to get demolished. Monster EML, actually centered over you. Too bad the first vort tracks N & the followup frontal wave is timed at like 12z.

 

Still time for things to change.

[Phil]

Haha, the 4km NAM demolishes iFred, while I sit at 95 degrees without a drop of rain. Typical warm season downsloping with insufficient moisture (opposite problem vs last Sunday).

 

Sometimes I just want to bulldoze the Appalachian mountains. They help us in winter, but man they can make summer hellish.

[weatherfan2012]

Even if we missed tommore event to the north as you said the pattern is a good one over all and there will be plenty of opportunities through out this summer for some good thunderstorms events of our own.

[weatherfan2012]

So far radar is very unimpressive in fact very little is even showing up in Pa we will see in a couple hours if convection does fire in pa as models have advertised.if nothing or little ends up happening it's pretty much lol at the models the last few days only time will tell over the next few hours the tail of this event.

[Phil]

96/70 here..it's summer.

[weatherfan2012]

Good warm up day for the real deel that comes july-September

[Phil]

Good warm up day for the real deel that comes july-September

Yeah, those 100/80 afternoons will arrive soon enough. I've learned to use June as an "adjustment" window given dewpoints aren't super high yet.

[Phil]

High was 96/71 today, hottest day of the summer so far. Now down to 93/61 as winds are shifting NW.

 

Right now convection struggling to get going, soundings still capped.

[weatherfan2012]

High was 96/71 today, hottest day of the summer so far. Now down to 93/61 as winds are shifting NW.

Right now convection struggling to get going, soundings still capped.

yeah so far the thunderstorm threat has been a bust for everyone models were going crazy with pa nj but so far it just has not mertealised exceap for very issolated stuff the warm strong cap is winning the battle.yep except for a few issolated stuff this ended up as a lol type of event for everyone.big story today was the heat.