July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

This late fall and winter are going to be very exciting. I'm hoping for a January 1950 type winter.

Dropped to -6F here that January.  11F colder than it has ever been here during my 34 years on this earth.  I wouldn't hold your breath. 

[Deweydog]

Cue the Tim Euro posts!!!

[Phil]

The GFS is flailing its arms after day 5 right?

 

If it happens to show a cold pattern precisely on day 11 then the coldest analog years show up. The 00Z GFS also shows 594DM heights shortly after that in the PNW.

 

This is weak evidence.

That was a semi-sarcastic post to convey my argument. Meant to add a smiley.

[Phil]

Not to be dramatic, but the 00z ECMWF solution would easily verify as the hottest week in US history. Just a massive dome of heat.

 

Only WA/OR are below average. Everyone else is in the blast furnace. Highs over 100F from Denver to Boston.

[TT-SEA]

SEA is at -0.1 through 7/12.    Probably above normal for the month after today.

 

BLI  +0.8

 

OLM   -0.8

 

AST  +2.3

 

EUG  -0.1

 

SLE  +0.4

 

PDX  -1.1

[Phil]

SEA may go above normal briefly, but they'll slide back below normal upon the return of deeper troughing next week.

[TT-SEA]

SEA may go above normal briefly, but they'll slide back below normal upon the return of deeper troughing next week.

 

 

No... the next few days will put them above normal and the troughing early next week will probably only result in normal or just slightly below normal temps based on recent troughs.   Then warmth for the last week of July.

 

There is a very good chance that SEA will end up above normal for the month.   You will have to trust me on this one.   You would have never guessed they would be right at normal now.   Even a couple days ago you said solidly below normal by the 15th.    Not going to happen.

[Jesse]

Since when is a warm last week of July a lock?

 

Isn't it like the 13th today?

[TT-SEA]

Since when is a warm last week of July a lock?

 

Isn't it like the 13th today?

 

 

Not a lock.   But I am saying it will happen.    

[Jesse]

Is there an app that will send me hourly text updates of SEA's monthly departure?

[Phil]

No... the next few days will put them above normal and the troughing early next week will probably only result in normal or just slightly below normal temps based on recent troughs. Then warmth for the last week of July.

Bookmarked and screenshot, just in case you decide to delete this post later.

 

Warmth the last week of July? Is this another "gut feeling"? That method of reasoning hasn't exactly benefited you to this point.

[Jesse]

Not a lock. But I am saying it will happen.

Brett's #7?

[Phil]

Since when is a warm last week of July a lock?

 

Isn't it like the 13th today?

Going to be fun when the last week of July starts trending cool/troughy on the modeling.

[TT-SEA]

Bookmarked and screenshot, just in case you decide to delete this post later.

 

Warmth the last week of July? Is this another "gut feeling"? That method of reasoning hasn't exactly benefited you to this point.

 

 

OK.   

 

Just like we would be crazy below normal by this point in the month and we are sitting right at normal.     

 

Even you said early August ridging and you have been off by 10 days all summer.  

 

I had a gut feeling that June 10-24 would be troughy and you mocked me for saying July 1-10 would be troughy based on a gut feeling.        

[TT-SEA]

Tim knows his call for early July troughing is going to bust

 

 

 

Gut feeling... worked out.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Was cool seeing the fresh snow on the Cascade peaks this morning on my flight out of PDX. 

[Phil]

OK.

 

Just like we would be crazy below normal by this point in the month and we are sitting right at normal.

 

Even you said early August ridging and you have been off by 10 days all summer.

 

I had a gut feeling that June 10-24 would be troughy and you mocked me for saying July 1-10 would be troughy based on a gut feeling.

You also said warm/ridgy after 7/10 based on gut feeling. Plus, you were saying early June would be cool/troughy, and that July would blowtorch.

 

That's three blown forecasts in 6 weeks. Sounds like you're about 50/50 on accuracy so far. Similar to that of a coin flip.

[TT-SEA]

You also said warm/ridgy after 7/10 based on gut feeling. Plus, you were saying early June would be cool/troughy, and that July would blowtorch. Three busts right there.

 

Sounds like you're about 50/50 on accuracy so far. Similar to that of a coin flip.

 

 

I have said my overall feeling for the summer was incorrect during the spring.    You can go back as far as you want but that will not change.

 

I never said it would be warm and ridgy after 7/10.   I went out of my way several times to say that it will not be warm and ridgy but that the deep troughing should relax.    And that is exactly what has happened this week.    

[TT-SEA]

 And I am not saying it will be ridgy and hot either.   

 

 

Several times I made this point as clear as possible.    But for some reason I now said warm and ridgy after the 10th.  

[GobBluth]

Could be a flirtation, but both 00 and 06 gfs want to reset the next trough a little further west during the last week of July to let the ridge expand back to the NW - could be a batch of high 80s/90s.

[TT-SEA]

Could be a flirtation, but both 00 and 06 gfs want to reset the next trough a little further west during the last week of July to let the ridge expand back to the NW - could be a batch of high 80s/90s.

 

 

That is my thinking... just a flirtation with heat.   Solidly above normal though.

[GobBluth]

That is my thinking... just a flirtation with heat.   Solidly above normal though.

No doubt, it would probably lock down July as at least normal temps.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS already showing signs of this even in the mid-range.

 

Here is the 00Z run from last night one week from now:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_177_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

And here is the new 12Z run at the same time:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_165_500_vort_ht.gif

[Phil]

I have said my overall feeling for the summer was incorrect during the spring. You can go back as far as you want but that will not change.

 

I never said it would be warm and ridgy after 7/10. I went out of my way several times to say that it will not be warm and ridgy but that the deep troughing should relax. And that is exactly what has happened this week.

Should I requote your posts? I have them saved, you stated warmer/drier than average after 7/10 five separate times. Are you sticking to that?

[TT-SEA]

Should I requote your posts? I have them saved, you stated warmer/drier than average after 7/10 five separate times. Are you sticking to that?

 

 

Absolutely.

 

Its warmer and drier this week.     Just not hot and ridgy.  

 

And this week will end up above normal at SEA.

 

This is exactly what I expecting.    You can repost any quote you want.   

[ShawniganLake]

SEA is at -0.1 through 7/12.    Probably above normal for the month after today.

 

BLI  +0.8

 

OLM   -0.8

 

AST  +2.3

 

EUG  -0.1

 

SLE  +0.4

 

PDX  -1.1

YVR   +1.1

[Phil]

12Z GFS already showing signs of this even in the mid-range.

 

 

So, we're back to posting 165hr GFS maps? Remember what happened the last time you hooked your psyche on this fantasy land crap?

 

Take a break, dude. You're only going to make this more difficult for yourself in the end.

[TT-SEA]

So, we're back to posting 165hr GFS maps? Remember what happened the last time you hooked your psyche on this fantasy land crap?

 

Take a break, dude. You're only going to make this more difficult for yourself in the end.

 

 

The models sure have trended nice for this week compared to what they were showing last week.    

 

I was posting troughy maps in the last part of June for the first part of July because I knew it was coming.    You said that was fantasy land too.  

[ShawniganLake]

Its kind of funny but predictable, that in this seemingly endless back forth, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. 

[TT-SEA]

Phil... how can you say that this week is not warmer and drier?  

 

Are you really saying the troughing has not relaxed?

 

SEA is not going to have even one below normal day this week it appears.  Last week SEA had 4 days below normal and rain on 4 days.

[Jesse]

Its kind of funny but predictable, that in this seemingly endless back forth, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Very true. Too much certainty from both sides.

[TT-SEA]

Very true. Too much certainty from both sides.

 

Fair statement.

[Phil]

Gold mine.

 

I am not even sure this is a solidy cool period for PDX southward. Looks pretty close to normal most days. Definitely a solidly below normal period farther north and across the east side of the mountains.

 

I have been thinking for the last few weeks that an early July troughing period followed by a warmer and drier pattern with no real troughing in the second half of July would be a clear win over your forecast. We love to compete.

We will see... this is a pretty easy forecast based on our local history. The second half of July will not be troughy here overall.

Local history strongly suggests that if the first part of July is troughy/cool/wet then the second part of the month will not be that way. Even in Nina years.

You will see. This is a pretty easy call without even looking at a map.

Something like JAS 1998 is real possibility as well given the timing so far this summer.

[TT-SEA]

Gold mine.

 

 

 

Awesome.

 

The first comment was about the first round of troughing and it was warmer from PDX southward.   Great call.

 

Warmer and drier is definitely working out for this week.   Troughing has relaxed.  

 

Second half of July will not be nearly as troughy as the first half.   Might even end up close to ridgy.

 

1998 second half of summer is still up in the air.

 

All good stuff there.   Thanks!  

[Phil]

More:

 

The next trough early next week makes a pass offshore but does not appear to be coming in like the weekend trough.

 

Yes, the trough will come into the PNW. The retrogression of the mass/momentum fluxes will lead to height rises offshore, and downstream troughing over the west. The 11-15 day 00z EPS highlights this beautifully..

 

I say it will not happen. We will find out in 2 weeks.

Looks like I was right.

[Phil]

Awesome.

 

The first comment was about the first round of troughing and it was warmer from PDX southward.   Great call.

 

Warmer and drier is definitely working out for this week.   Troughing has relaxed.  

 

Second half of July will not be nearly as troughy as the first half.   Might even end up close to ridgy.

 

1998 second half of summer is still up in the air.

 

All good stuff there.   Thanks!

 

You said "no real troughing during the second half of July". You're going to bust.

[TT-SEA]

Again... I stand by everything.

 

In case you have not noticed... the troughing has relaxed and it is warmer and drier this week.  Are you missing that?

 

Another weaker round of troughing early next week and then signs point to even warmer conditions.

 

I feel like you are beating this ice cold drum and the reality is changing without you even noticing.  

[Phil]

Wait, so now the second half of July will be ridgy? Man you're just all over the place.

[TT-SEA]

You said "no real troughing during the second half of July". You're going to bust.

 

Not overall.   

 

You have made me feel even better about my predictions.   It is working out.   

[Jesse]

Can you guys take it to PM or something? My eyes are on the verge of bleeding.