July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Man, what a fat, ugly, horrid-looking ridge. That's the very definition of death, just pure evil incarnate.

You have a flair for language... I will give you that!

[Deweydog]

Man, what a fat, ugly, horrid-looking ridge. That's the very definition of death, just pure evil incarnate.

Gonna make hydration that much more important during the upcoming race riots.

[Front Ranger]

Applies to everyone here.

 

I did not really want troughing in the July 1-10 period but it became obvious to me that it would happen while you were saying it would be ridgy until July 10-15.

 

Dude...you've made your point. Time to move on.

[Jesse]

Pretty sad. You'd think we'd have a lot more unpleasantness to show for it.

Subjective term. Do you mean heat?

[Front Ranger]

Gonna make hydration that much more important during the upcoming race riots.

 

Sadly, there is a very real link between heatwaves and crime. 

 

This is why I root for cooler than normal weather, as every responsible citizen should.

[TT-SEA]

Dude...you've made your point. Time to move on.

Obviously not it seems.

[Phil]

Applies to everyone here.

 

I did not really want troughing in the July 1-10 period but it became obvious to me that it would happen while you were saying it would be ridgy until July 10-15.

The difference is, despite running a week slow, my overall idea was much closer to reality than yours. It's not even close.

 

Nailing down specific timing is mostly about luck, but forecasting systematic pattern progression is something more concrete.

[Jesse]

00z ensembles are below average almost though the end of the run now.

 

Every hint toward near or even above average in the LR lately seems to get cooled as it moves into focus.

[TT-SEA]

The difference is, despite running a week slow, my overall idea was much closer to reality than yours. It's not even close.

Nailing down specific timing is mostly about luck, but forecasting systematic pattern progression is something more concrete.

So far so good on your outlook for this summer. I already gave you credit for that.

[Jesse]

The difference is, despite running a week slow, my overall idea was much closer to reality than yours. It's not even close.

 

Nailing down specific timing is mostly about luck, but forecasting systematic pattern progression is something more concrete.

Very well said, and very true.

[Jesse]

I think we are about four pages ahead of last July's thread now.

 

And it hasn't just been Tim and Phil posting tonight.

[Front Ranger]

The difference is, despite running a week slow, my overall idea was much closer to reality than yours. It's not even close.

 

Nailing down specific timing is mostly about luck, but forecasting systematic pattern progression is something more concrete.

 

Jesse still refuses to tell us who is winning the summer forecast contest, the only truly objective test of LR forecasting prowess.

[Deweydog]

Subjective term. Do you mean heat?

Don't be dumb. Point is, we've achieved such statistical greatness amidst a pretty pedestrian pattern which has been fairly enjoyable for the masses. Kind of bolsters the position of the common sense police who had to respond here the last couple summers and reassure things would be okie dokie okay.

[Phil]

Jesse still refuses to tell us who is winning the summer forecast contest, the only truly objective test of LR forecasting prowess.

I'm sweating bullets, man. Soooo cruel.

[Jesse]

Jesse still refuses to tell us who is winning the summer forecast contest, the only truly objective test of LR forecasting prowess.

 

Oh D**n. I keep forgetting about that. It's such a slow moving contest the pressure to tally isn't there as much as usual.

 

I will get it done before leaving to Montana Wednesday.

[FroYoBro]

If PDX ends up below average for July I would like to leave all of my belongings to Jesse. Thank you. 

[Jesse]

Don't be dumb. Point is, we've achieved such statistical greatness amidst a pretty pedestrian pattern which has been fiairly enjoyable for the masses. Kind of bolsters the position of the common sense police who had to respond here the last couple summers and reassure things would be okie dokie okay.

 

The last trough was pretty impressive. Subjective "enjoyability" has been more of a timing/luck thing. We could have been in deformation zone/muddy baseball diamond hell one or two of those days if things had tracked just a little differently.

[Deweydog]

The last trough was pretty impressive. Subjective "enjoyability" has been more of a timing/luck thing. We could have been in deformation zone/muddy baseball diamond hell one or two of those days if things had tracked just a little differently.

Luck?

 

Speaking of subjectivity...

[Jesse]

Luck?

 

Speaking of subjectivity...

Didn't say good luck or bad luck. Just luck.

[snow_wizard]

00z ensembles are below average almost though the end of the run now.

 

Every hint toward near or even above average in the LR lately seems to get cooled as it moves into focus.image.png

 

If we can't score some big minuses out of that there's no hope.

[snow_wizard]

The last trough was pretty impressive. Subjective "enjoyability" has been more of a timing/luck thing. We could have been in deformation zone/muddy baseball diamond hell one or two of those days if things had tracked just a little differently.

 

546 thickness in July is pretty far from pedestrian alright.

[stuffradio]

The last trough was pretty impressive. Subjective "enjoyability" has been more of a timing/luck thing. We could have been in deformation zone/muddy baseball diamond hell one or two of those days if things had tracked just a little differently.

You mean the one last week or something? That was pretty crazy. It certainly felt like January out there with the rain... but I'm happy there are no brown spots on my lawn.

[Jesse]

You mean the one last week or something? That was pretty crazy. It certainly felt like January out there with the rain... but I'm happy there are no brown spots on my lawn.

Yes, that one.

 

As Jim said, 546 thicknesses the second week of July is about as chilly as it gets at this point.

[snow_wizard]

You mean the one last week or something? That was pretty crazy. It certainly felt like January out there with the rain... but I'm happy there are no brown spots on my lawn.

 

I can actually mow my weeds without stirring up a choking cloud of dust with my mower this summer.

[Deweydog]

546 thickness in July is pretty far from pedestrian alright.

Don't think they dropped below 548-549dm or so, which isn't all that impressive for early July. A couple weeks from now they'd be more impressive.

[Jesse]

Don't think they dropped below 548-549dm or so, which isn't all that impressive for early July. A couple weeks from now they'd be more impressive.

They verified at 546dm here from what I can tell.

[Deweydog]

Didn't say good luck or bad luck. Just luck.

It's all meteorological, my man. Luck has nothing to do with it.

[Phil]

Through d7, I think the 00z ECMWF solution makes the most sense. Wavenumber three pattern over the W-Hem.

[Front Ranger]

Wonder when the last 80-less July was at SEA? Or OLM for that matter?

[Deweydog]

Wonder when the last 80-less July was at SEA? Or OLM for that matter?

T'was not 2015.

 

That's all that matters.

[Bryant]

Love it

[Front Ranger]

If we can't score some big minuses out of that there's no hope.

 

FWIW, it's pretty tough to get daily anomalies greater than -6 or so this time of year. The record low max for SEA today is only about 10 degrees cooler than the average high. And if you get a high that cool, you're usually dealing with lots of clouds and mild low temps.

[Front Ranger]

Love it

 

And that measly streak probably ends tomorrow.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW, it's pretty tough to get daily anomalies greater than -6 or so this time of year. The record low max for SEA today is only about 10 degrees cooler than the average high. And if you get a high that cool, you're usually dealing with lots of clouds and mild low temps.

 

Very true, but somehow 1955 managed to average about 60 at SEA.  I think some -5 or -6 departures would be about right with what is coming.

[snow_wizard]

Wonder when the last 80-less July was at SEA? Or OLM for that matter?

 

I think 1993 either did or came close.  That and 1954 might be the only 2.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF and GFS agree on that crazy 6000 ridge over the Midwest next week.  It will suck to be them if it verifies.  The ECMWF looks undenaibly cool for us at least through the 20th.

[Phil]

GIPHY

Lol, perfect.

[Phil]

The ECMWF and GFS agree on that crazy 6000 ridge over the Midwest next week. It will suck to be them if it verifies.

"The monster" is all I can think to call it. It's actually about to fuse with the Bermuda high towards the end there.

[BLI snowman]

Don't be dumb. Point is, we've achieved such statistical greatness amidst a pretty pedestrian pattern which has been fairly enjoyable for the masses. Kind of bolsters the position of the common sense police who had to respond here the last couple summers and reassure things would be okie dokie okay.

 

Yeah but "enjoyable to the masses" and July go hand in hand around here generally. Cool Julys are not by any definition unpleasant or ugly for the most part. At worst we're still going to generally see

[snow_wizard]

An interesting side note is it appears likely this month will feature the strongest surface high pressure over the NE Pacific / GOA on record (at least back to 1948).  It looks like it could be so by quite a margin in fact.