July 2016 Observation and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

FWIW, the 00z ECMWF has cooler than average 850mb temperatures through the entire run, with no end in sight.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF indicates way below normal temps late this week with highs in the low 60s and lows chillier than they have been...especially on Friday.  In general the entire week looks cool.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW, the 00z ECMWF has cooler than average 850mb temperatures through the entire run, with no end in sight.

 

6000 heights over the GOA and sharp troughing over the NW.  Really impressive if it verifies.  The upcoming trough position looks more favorable for some real anomalous cool weather here.  We could easily see this be the coolest July in over 15 years.

[TT-SEA]

I wonder if Tim will be in MN when this all goes down, haha. I'm probably toast also.

 

The analogs were fairly clear on this, though, so it's not surprising. Fairly typical to get NPAC height rises/western troughing during developing Niña summers, especially under antecedent +QBO/-IOD/-AMO circulations. So, not too surprising when you get down to it.

 

 

Not yet... although nothing looks too terrible in MN on the 00Z ECMWF.    They appear to have cool downs during the entire run.   We are all hoping for very warm weather for the vacation... including our family living there!   It should also be noted that the ECMWF has actually backed off the troughing once shown for Monday - Thursday of this week.   I was just comparing the last 10 runs to see trends.   

 

Its July 10th... and SEA is at -0.4 for the month so far.   I would say that is pretty close to perfectly normal.

[Deweydog]

Not yet... although nothing looks too terrible in MN on the 00Z ECMWF. They appear to have cool downs during the entire run. We are all hoping for very warm weather for the vacation... including our family living there! It should also be noted that the ECMWF has actually backed off the troughing once shown for Monday - Thursday of this week. I was just comparing the last 10 runs to see trends.

 

Its July 10th... and SEA is at -0.4 for the month so far. I would say that is pretty close to perfectly normal.

Runways.

 

Pretty much every other station across the region is -10 or more.

[Tyler Mode]

All the way up to 59 here...

[Phil]

Not yet... although nothing looks too terrible in MN on the 00Z ECMWF. They appear to have cool downs during the entire run. We are all hoping for very warm weather for the vacation... including our family living there! It should also be noted that the ECMWF has actually backed off the troughing once shown for Monday - Thursday of this week. I was just comparing the last 10 runs to see trends.

 

Its July 10th... and SEA is at -0.4 for the month so far. I would say that is pretty close to perfectly normal.

Your prediction for a cooler first half of July might be in trouble if you guys don't put up bigger departures soon. The troughing isn't going away this month.

[Deweydog]

That is quite the monster looming in the midwest.

[Front Ranger]

6000 heights over the GOA and sharp troughing over the NW. Really impressive if it verifies. The upcoming trough position looks more favorable for some real anomalous cool weather here. We could easily see this be the coolest July in over 15 years.

It will be tough to beat 2001, but certainly looking like a throwback July, with more days in the 60s than 80s for western WA.

 

Also will probably be the greatest dropoff on record from one July to the next.

[BLI snowman]

It will be tough to beat 2001, but certainly looking like a throwback July, with more days in the 60s than 80s for western WA.

 

Also will probably be the greatest dropoff on record from one July to the next.

1985 to 1986.

[Deweydog]

Gotta give props to Phil. From a broad perspective he's been pretty spot on over the last several weeks and this summer appears to be shaping up as he expected.

[Phil]

Gotta give props to Phil. From a broad perspective he's been pretty spot on over the last several weeks and this summer appears to be shaping up as he expected.

Thanks. Though, given developing Niña summers w/ -IOD are all basically the same in terms of progression, it wasn't exactly the most difficult forecast to make. [knocks on wood]

[Tyler Mode]

Not weather related but could be a big issue traffic wise:

 

Mechanical malfunction closes Hood Canal Bridge

OLYMPIA, Wash. (AP) - Mechanical issues have led to the closure of the State Route 104 Hood Canal Bridge to vehicle and marine traffic until further notice.During an 8 a.m. marine opening on Sunday, the bridge experienced a malfunction on its western half.

 

[Deweydog]

 

Not weather related but could be a big issue traffic wise:

 

 

Mechanical malfunction closes Hood Canal Bridge

OLYMPIA, Wash. (AP) - Mechanical issues have led to the closure of the State Route 104 Hood Canal Bridge to vehicle and marine traffic until further notice.During an 8 a.m. marine opening on Sunday, the bridge experienced a malfunction on its western half.

Clearly a result of the NEW cold phase!

[Front Ranger]

1985 to 1986.

 

Good catch. Could very well match or exceed that drop in some places, though. 7 to 8 degrees cooler than last July looks possible.

[Tyler Mode]

Good catch. Could very well match or exceed that drop in some places, though. 7 to 8 degrees cooler than last July looks possible.

Still early on in the month, but I'm running -9.2 on the high temps vs. last year.

[ShawniganLake]

Seems like coolish weather kills almost all activity in the forum. We need a heatwave to liven things up a little.

[Phil]

The high temperature at EUG today was 13 degrees below the climatological average. Brrr.

[Deweydog]

Seems like coolish weather kills almost all activity in the forum. We need a heatwave to liven things up a little.

Ban.

[Tyler Mode]

When is the last time there was a frost advisory in July?  Maybe June or September, but not July or August!

Frost Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
233 PM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016

NORTHEAST SISKIYOU AND NORTHWEST MODOC COUNTIES-MODOC COUNTY-
KLAMATH BASIN-
NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TULELAKE...DORRIS...ALTURAS...
ALTAMONT...KLAMATH FALLS...BEATTY...BLY...CHEMULT...CRESCENT...
SPRAGUE RIVER...LAKEVIEW
233 PM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM PDT
MONDAY...

* TEMPERATURE...LOWERING INTO THE MID 30S LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
  MONDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS IN OREGON INCLUDE...KLAMATH FALLS...KENO...SPRAGUE
  RIVER...BEATTY...CHEMULT...CRESCENT...VALLEY FALLS...LAKEVIEW
  AND SURROUNDING VALLEY LOCATIONS.

* LOCATIONS IN CALIFORNIA INCLUDE...DORRIS...TULELAKE...
  ALTURAS...CANBY...LIKELY AND SURROUNDING VALLEY LOCATIONS.

* IMPACTS...FROST MAY DAMAGE OR KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

[Timmy Supercell]

Nice walk this evening. I see KLMT had 61 for a high. Coolest July day since 2000. 

 

Shockingly there were still lots of midges. I thought those were mostly around in warm/humid environments. Maybe in Klamath Falls they don't abide by any rules. Makes sense.

 

I've also had my window wide open since 06/24. Just closed it this morning. I actually briefly found myself heating up the house for 30 minutes around 7:00am to get the indoor temp warmer. Last 2 summers I never closed my window until September. Not that lows are that much below seasonal level, but since highs took a huge swing, the house practically doesn't receive any warmth.

 

^^^ Frost Advisory? ^^^ Since I came here that is likely my first after about mid-June time period!

[TT-SEA]

SEA was 73/56 today for another 0 departure.

 

Friday and Sunday were the warmest days as I expected.   Just a couple degrees cooler than I was thinking due to a little more cloudiness.  

 

Dewpoint is still at 57 tonight at SEA.    Looks like it will be in the mid to upper 50s for most of the week.     I am guessing SEA will still be close to normal at the half-way point of the month.   

[Phil]

SEA was 73/56 today for another 0 departure.

 

Friday and Sunday were the warmest days as I expected. Just a couple degrees cooler than I was thinking due to a little more cloudiness.

 

Dewpoint is still at 57 tonight at SEA. Looks like it will be in the mid to upper 50s for most of the week. I am guessing SEA will still be close to normal at the half-way point of the month.

If SEA isn't at/below -2 by 7/15 (unlikely), I'll probably win our wager, as the troughing isn't going away this month.

 

Watch for a break sometime during the 1st half of August as another retrogression occurs, followed by the next round of offshore height rises/western troughing during the next drop in the AAM integral/constructive EHEM forcing.

[TT-SEA]

If SEA isn't at/below -2 by 7/15 (unlikely), I'll probably win our wager, as the troughing isn't going away this month.

 

Watch for a break sometime during the 1st half of August as another retrogression occurs, followed by the next round of offshore height rises/western troughing during the next drop in the AAM integral/constructive EHEM forcing.

 

I doubt you will win that wager.   I fairly certain that 7/16-7/31 will be a little warmer compared to average than the 7/1-7/15 period at SEA even if there is troughing present.    

[Phil]

I doubt you will win that wager. I fairly certain that 7/16-7/31 will be a little warmer compared to average than the 7/1-7/15 period at SEA even if there is troughing present.

Why do you think that? If anything I think the troughing could be more impressive mid/late month, also perhaps oriented farther east so drier N/NW flow results instead of the S/SW flow we've seen this go around.

 

Either way, it'll be hard to avoid a cooler than average month regionwide, when all is said and done. I'd bet good money that SEA finishes July with a negative departure.

[TT-SEA]

Why do you think that? If anything I think the troughing could be more impressive mid/late month, also perhaps oriented farther east so drier N/NW flow results instead of the S/SW flow we've seen this go around.

 

Either way, it'll be hard to avoid a cooler than average month regionwide, when all is said and done. I'd bet good money that SEA finishes July with a negative departure.

 

 

We will see.   It will probably take a change in the orientation of the troughing.   For example... the second half of July 1983 was warmer compared to average than the first half.

 

Remember you were thinking SEA would be solidly below normal already.    It just has not worked out that way.

[Phil]

We will see. It will probably take a change in the orientation of the troughing. For example... the second half of July 1983 was warmer compared to average than the first half.

 

Remember you were thinking SEA would be solidly below normal already. It just has not worked out that way.

Thing is, everything from the tropical convective state, to tendencies in the upper atmospheric mass/momentum fluxes (interactive w/ QBO), to residual AAM propagation argues for a continuation (or possibly an intensification) of the offshore height rises/anticyclone and downstream western troughing (-PNA pattern). So, that doesn't seem to be going anywhere, at least not anytime soon.

 

Only difference is we should see an EPO spike during the second half of July, thanks to the residual refractive wave driving initiated via those persistent anticyclones (NPAC/WPO and NAO domains) observed recently, given the +WAFs out of the EPAC as the lead propagatory wave orbits back into the IO/EHEM.

 

So, that will possibly result in a more classic full latitude trough from AK into the PNW behind a more classic offshore anticyclone biased more equatorward. Would also favor a big ridge over most of the country east of the Rockies, given the lower wavenumber.

[Phil]

The earliest I see the western troughing breaking is early August, and when it does, I don't think the reprieve lasts longer than maybe 10-15 days. There's no physical driver for any sort of +PNA/+AAM going forward. The last of any potential sustained destructive interference out of the topics is being flushed out as the EPAC continues to cool.

 

You don't have many warm EPAC/-QBO years following Niños, and this year proves why that's so hard to do, as we continue to slide the other way. I think 1998 might be lone exception, so it might be a good anti-log going forward.

[TT-SEA]

We will see.

[Front Ranger]

The last month has been below normal in the PNW. No doubt about that. A far cry from the last couple summers.

 

 

[Phil]

00z ECMWF does what we were discussing. Large offshore anticyclone pumping cool/dry air into the PNW on NW flow, leading to cooler surface temperatures overall.

 

The 500mb heights spike above 600dm over the NPAC. Would be record breaking for this time of year.

 

Edit: Looks like 603dm. Woah.

[Tyler Mode]

Lakeview at 30 degrees this morning. K Falls at 38...

 

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=mfr&sid=LKV&num=48

[MossMan]

The last month has been below normal in the PNW. No doubt about that. A far cry from the last couple summers.

 

30dTDeptWRCC-NW.png

It makes me want to cry.

[TT-SEA]

The last month has been below normal in the PNW. No doubt about that. A far cry from the last couple summers.

 

30dTDeptWRCC-NW.png

 

 

I wonder how the last 2 months look?   Really it has been quite troughy since the middle of May with two short breaks during the first and last weeks of June.

[Front Ranger]

I wonder how the last 2 months look?   Really it has been quite troughy since the middle of May with two short breaks during the first and last weeks of June.

 

Overall, mid May to early June was pretty warm and dry relative to climo.

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

SEA was 73/56 today for another 0 departure.

 

Friday and Sunday were the warmest days as I expected. Just a couple degrees cooler than I was thinking due to a little more cloudiness.

 

Dewpoint is still at 57 tonight at SEA. Looks like it will be in the mid to upper 50s for most of the week. I am guessing SEA will still be close to normal at the half-way point of the month.

Victoria (YYJ) managed a +2.1F anomaly yesterday.

[TT-SEA]

Overall, mid May to early June was pretty warm and dry relative to climo.

 

60dTDeptWRCC-NW.png

 

That week in early June really skews things.

[Front Ranger]

That week in early June really skews things.

 

Some, but it was still overall a dry/warm period, not dominated by troughing like the last 30 days.

 

Looking at OLM, May 15 - June 8 had 15 warmer than normal days, and 5 below normal days.

[Jesse]

Victoria (YYJ) managed a +2.1F anomaly yesterday.

 

The negative anomalies were more impressive further south yesterday. PDX was -3.5.

[Jesse]

Seems like coolish weather kills almost all activity in the forum. We need a heatwave to liven things up a little.

 

Interestingly, this year's July thread has been more active so far than last year's.

 

We are up to 13 pages as of the 11th. Last year there were only 10 at this point.

 

I checked and there has been a pretty well-rounded representation of members here as well. No more skewed than last year, which also featured some Tim and Phil action.