August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

What is Celine Dion showing?

Fairly similar to the GFS.

[Jesse]

Fairly similar to the GFS.

 

God d**n it.

[Deweydog]

God d**n it.

Looks like a troughy pattern either way. You'll be fine.

[Jesse]

Looks like a troughy pattern either way. You'll be fine.

 

Will you, though?

 

If we end up with a troughy first 10 days of September I'm going to start putting together a care package.

[Deweydog]

Will you, though?

 

If we end up with a troughy first 10 days of September I'm going to start putting together a care package.

I'm not the one damning god for the wrong kind of trough. The SW'erly flow package might actually be better because we may actually get a little rain out of it. Dew points might not fit your perfection profile, though. Time will tell where the irrational persistence upsettedness index (IPUI) numbers will ultimately end up.

[Jesse]

I'm not the one damning god for the wrong kind of trough. The SW'erly flow package might actually be better because we may actually get a little rain out of it. Dew points might not fit your perfection profile, though. Time will tell where the irrational persistence upsettedness index (IPUI) numbers will ultimately end up.

 

Not so fast. I was requesting that god d**n the trough. Let's get our facts straight.

 

More rain would be nice. I guess I have gotten used to things continuing to dig offshore until we get another warm ridge retrograding over us from the intermountain west. That has been a recurring pattern the last 2-3 late August/early Septembers.

[Jesse]

Looks like the 12Z GFS is still kind of a warm outlier for early next week.

[Deweydog]

Not so fast. I was requesting that god d**n the trough. Let's get our facts straight.

 

More rain would be nice. I guess I have gotten used to things continuing to dig offshore until we get another warm ridge retrograding over us. That has been a recurring pattern the last 2-3 late August/early Septembers.

Well it looks like the projected irrational persistence upsettedness index (PIPUI) numbers are already up a little this morning.

 

Last summer had little in the way of southerly flow and this summer it's been fairly non-existent. Now late 2013, 2014? I certainly understand you bleeding out of your eyes, bleeding out of your... wherever over those.

[Jesse]

Well it looks like the projected irrational persistence upsettedness index (PIPUI) numbers are already up a little this morning.

 

Last summer had little in the way of southerly flow and this summer it's been fairly non-existent. Now late 2013, 2014? I certainly understand you bleeding out of your eyes, bleeding out of your... wherever over those.

 

Don't try to paint me into a corner. I've been just fine this morning. I am enjoying our back and fourth. I don't mind the banter

[stuffradio]

Not so fast. I was requesting that god d**n the trough. Let's get our facts straight.

 

More rain would be nice. I guess I have gotten used to things continuing to dig offshore until we get another warm ridge retrograding over us from the intermountain west. That has been a recurring pattern the last 2-3 late August/early Septembers.

We had rain/wind storms late last August/early September...

 

From my daily observations in 2015:

August 5, .20 inches of rain

August 6, .05 inches of rain

August 28 .58 inches of rain

August 29, .68 inches of rain

August 30 .16 inches of rain

August 31 1.53 inches of rain

September 1 1.38 inches of rain

September 2 .52 inches of rain

September 3 .06 inches of rain

etc. etc.

[Jesse]

We had rain/wind storms late last August/early September...

 

Maybe I'm thinking of the middle of August.

 

There were a couple of troughs that were originally progged as direct hits, but we lucked out, they dug offshore, and left us in humid, thunderstormy, wildfire causing hell.

[stuffradio]

Maybe I'm thinking of the middle of August.

 

There were a couple of troughs that were originally progged as direct hits, but we lucked out, they dug offshore, and left us in humid, thunderstormy, wildfire causing hell.

Though it's possible it missed OR and only hit NW WA/SW BC

[Timmy Supercell]

Today is the 3rd anniversary of a rather interesting/dynamic day. Locally nothing huge here, but probably one of the best storm days around the southern Cascades I can recall. About 4 or 5 severe warned storms all in one big cluster along the hills to my west in the afternoon (and this was a couple hours after a morning t'storm event had just finished!). These cells didn't need that much clearing or warming to get going. The sky around 2-3pm was the darkest I've seen. No spotters or residents near the storms so nothing ended up being reported. But with all half dozen cells reading tops at or near 40,000 feet, 65-70 dbz, and potent hail cores, I can assume there was at least golf ball size hail under one of the storms.

 

They were just close enough to hear distant rumbles/rolls. At one point there was convective induced Altocumulus Undulatus Asperatus near me ahead of the cells. I hear it's actually quite rare to see these not associated with frontal systems. I've only seen them associated with convection maybe twice in the 6 years I have lived here (the other time was August 2014, don't recall the date). But with fronts, perhaps a dozen or more times in the Fall and Winter since 2011.

 

http://i68.tinypic.com/a16zxt.jpg

 

http://i68.tinypic.com/pymol.jpg

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/2it05c1.jpg

 

I hope these reminiscing posts are okay

[Geos]

Some nice cool lows around the Portland region. 56° here this morning. Quite a few clouds, especially off to the west this morning

 

.

[Phil]

00z EPS troughy through day15, classic Niña/-PNA look.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/53976E46-8091-49E1-873B-E621AA85E12B_zpsu6paa6te.png

[Deweydog]

Don't try to paint me into a corner. I've been just fine this morning. I am enjoying our back and fourth. I don't mind the banter

It just paints a little inaccurate of a picture of the recent past to claim an offshore cut off low scenario is just a persistence of monumental persistence.

 

One could easily argue the last cut off feature was extremely lucky in its positioning and persistence earlier this month, generating some ambiguous but lofty winter projections based on its pioneer status.

[Geos]

GEFS showing that cooler regime after 6 days out.

 

 

[Jesse]

It just paints a little inaccurate of a picture of the recent past to claim an offshore cut off low scenario is just a persistence of monumental persistence.

 

One could easily argue the last cut off feature was extremely lucky in its positioning and persistence earlier this month, generating some ambiguous but lofty winter projections based on its pioneer status.

 

Fair enough. I also think it is fair to say that warmth in all forms has been pretty persistent though, regardless of pattern. A trough digging offshore would represent yet another warm wrinkle in a 2-3 year stretch that has pretty much only wrinkled warm.

 

Some of us more diversity minded folk are still waiting for a change. Getting tired of the warmth-only drinking fountains and cold anomalies being forced to the back of the bus.

[BLI snowman]

Maybe I'm thinking of the middle of August.

 

There were a couple of troughs that were originally progged as direct hits, but we lucked out, they dug offshore, and left us in humid, thunderstormy, wildfire causing hell.

 

We had very little southerly flow or humidity last summer, and our only thunderstorm event came at the end of August with the big storm.

[stuffradio]

Fair enough. I also think it is fair to say that warmth in all forms has been pretty persistent though, regardless of pattern. A trough digging offshore would represent yet another warm wrinkle in a 2-3 year stretch that has pretty much only wrinkled warm.

 

Some of us more diversity minded folk are still waiting for a change. Getting tired of the warmth-only drinking fountains and cold anomalies being forced to the back of the bus.

I'm the most diverse one of everyone. Diversity reigns supreme!

[Jesse]

We had very little southerly flow or humidity last summer, and our only thunderstorm event came at the end of August with the big storm.

 

True, I was speaking specifically of a one or two week stretch.

 

Pretty crazy that many places set or approached records for 60+ lows with so little humidity last summer.

[Timmy Supercell]

We had very little southerly flow or humidity last summer, and our only thunderstorm event came at the end of August with the big storm.

 

In southern Oregon last summer I had nothing BUT  southerly flow, well almost....

[snow_wizard]

It feels heavenly today!  Not only is it cool but the dps are a bit lower than they've been for most of the summer.  More troughs to come!

[Jesse]

It feels heavenly today!  Not only is it cool but the dps are a bit lower than they've been for most of the summer.  More troughs to come!

 

Today is absolutely gorgeous, no doubt.

[Deweydog]

Fair enough. I also think it is fair to say that warmth in all forms has been pretty persistent though, regardless of pattern. A trough digging offshore would represent yet another warm wrinkle in a 2-3 year stretch that has pretty much only wrinkled warm.

 

Some of us more diversity minded folk are still waiting for a change. Getting tired of the warmth-only drinking fountains and cold anomalies being forced to the back of the bus.

 

I don't think the pattern looks warm either way.  A few 72/60 days?  Maybe.  An Ambien and a six pack of Zima will get your through that without breaking a sweat.  

 

And diversity takes all shapes and, more importantly, sizes.  The recent past has been an up.  Forum progressives such as myself celebrate the ups AND the downs.  We progressives also insist on looking forward, while forum tea partiers such as yourself insist on looking back, longing for the days of a more anachronistic climate while recklessly denying and manipulating the present and future. 

[snow_wizard]

Today is absolutely gorgeous, no doubt.

 

I hope SEA doesn't have one of their famous late temperature bursts today.  I really liked the 60 at 11am.

[Jesse]

I don't think the pattern looks warm either way.  A few 72/60 days?  Maybe.  An Ambien and a six pack of Zima will get your through that without breaking a sweat.  

 

And diversity takes all shapes and, more importantly, sizes.  The recent past has been an up.  Forum progressives such as myself celebrate the ups AND the downs.  We progressives also insist on looking forward, while forum tea partiers such as yourself insist on looking back, longing for the days of a more anachronistic climate while recklessly denying and manipulating the present and future. 

 

Cold lives matter too!

[snow_wizard]

The GEM has the 570 contour almost to the north Pole with a plunge well down into OR on day 6.

[stuffradio]

Cold lives matter too!

Only in DJF though.

[Jesse]

Only in DJF though.

 

You need to become more diverse.

[stuffradio]

You need to become more diverse.

Okay, DJFM it is!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF continues to weaken the troughing for the weekend and beyond,   Actually looks sort of ridgy for early next week. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016082212/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_10.png

[BLI snowman]

12Z ECMWF continues to weaken the troughing for the weekend and beyond,   Actually looks sort of ridgy for early next week. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016082212/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_10.png

 

That also shows a major hurricane off the west coast of FL.

 

#nothappening

[Deweydog]

Cold lives matter too!

 

It's no coincidence that the colder our nation's history gets, the more segregated and bigoted it becomes.  

 

Hmmmm...  Make America Great and COLD Again!!!

[Jesse]

12z Euro seems to tone the heat down a little this Wednesday through Friday.

 

Beyond that it is solidly cool Saturday through Monday. Looks way different than the GFS beyond that, keeping the troughing centered to our east rather than our west.

[BLI snowman]

It's no coincidence that the colder our nation's history gets, the more segregated and bigoted it becomes.  

 

Hmmmm...  Make America Great and COLD Again!!!

 

Our region was very white in the 1950s in more ways than one!

[TT-SEA]

That also shows a major hurricane off the west coast of FL.

 

#nothappening

 

That disturbance off the Florida coast cut off from the main flow probably has no impact on our area in terms of the 500mb pattern.

 

Since we are playing the 'what if it were winter' game... the ECMWF does not represent a good pattern.   Stick a fork in winter.   

[TT-SEA]

Also... there is a tropical system that could be heading towards Florida...

 

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/sfl-tropics-monday-082216-20160822-story.html

[Timmy Supercell]

That also shows a major hurricane off the west coast of FL.

 

#nothappening

 

You mean a Geo-Engineered Storm?

 

#TheyAreSpraying

#WeatherManipulationIsReal

#LookUpWakeUpWorld

 

[BLI snowman]

That disturbance off the Florida coast cut off from the main flow probably has no impact on our area in terms of the 500mb pattern.

 

Since we are playing the 'what if it were winter' game... the ECMWF does not represent a good pattern.   Stick a fork in winter.  

 

Almost missed the 940mb superstorm in the North Central Atlantic.

 

How do those poor marine animals go about enlisting the services of Dennis Quaid and Jake Gyllenhaal!?