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August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

Geos

By Geos
in West of the Rockies

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luvssnow_spokane
luvssnow_spokane

Looks like a warm week! -- The wedding last Sunday was quite wet but still beautiful. Only moderate rain during the ceremony. We had 193 people in attendance and they even sat through the rainy cerem

ShawniganLake
ShawniganLake

Here is a picture I took when we were up there in July. It has been a very showery and unsettled summer up there. I took the picture off of our Sundeck on the front of the cabin. It's close enough

MR.SNOWMIZER
MR.SNOWMIZER

Got this with cell on rapid shots at my cabin.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
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12Z ECMWF at 144 hours looks like the 12Z GFS at the same time.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016082312/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_7.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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A little more troughy than the GFS at 168 hours:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016082312/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Geos Proficient

Geos

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Chilly morning with a low of 47° here. 

 

Would be nice to get some showers into the region soon.

Not too much on the GFS.

 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

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Tim should have been on mod preview a long time ago in my opinion. While Tim and Phil go back and forth at each other, it's Tim that is antagonizing to the point where Phil (and lately many more members) will step up and say something. Just hiding the issue won't solve anything... eliminating the root of the issue is what needs to happen. Just my 2 cents

Tim being put on strict mod preview, or banned, would be the best thing to happen to this forum since December 2008.

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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Much more troughy than GFS at 192 hours:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016082312/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

ECMWF really likes the gulf 'cane idea. Will it destroy the other models again?

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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ECMWF really likes the gulf 'cane idea. Will it destroy the other models again?

 

 

I was just going to point that out... definitely continuing the idea of a hurricane in the Gulf.   

 

Not good.    Particularly if it moves into LA.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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ECMWF ensemble mean agrees well with the operational run for the weekend and then is even more troughy for later next week.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls12/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls12-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-w95f14.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

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Portland actually has the third coolest summer climate of any major city in the Lower 48.

 

Almost any major metro area in the US will seem like a summer "hotbox" when compared to Seattle. San Francisco being the only exception. Even Fairbanks, Alaska has warmer average highs in July.

 

In short, I want the three minutes of my life I wasted reading that blog update back.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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Portland actually has the third coolest summer climate of any major city in the Lower 48.

 

Almost any major metro area in the US will seem like a summer "hotbox" when compared to Seattle. San Francisco being the only exception. Even Fairbanks, Alaska has warmer average highs in July.

 

In short, I want the three minutes of my life I wasted reading that blog update back.

 

Obviously it was tongue-in-cheek to get an audience.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Phil Grand Master

Phil

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Phil... what are the most useful analogs right now in your opinion going into fall and early winter?

I'm not sure yet, but whatever analogs I use, they're all going to be -ENSO/+QBO, weighted towards low and/or declining solar forcing.

foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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I'm not sure yet, but whatever analogs I use, they're all going to be -ENSO/+QBO, weighted towards low and/or declining solar forcing.

OK. It will be interesting to see the list. Your list in spring worked well overall.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Jesse Experienced

Jesse

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At least for the next three days.

 

This sneaky little heatwave, breaking up two majestically cold troughs, could end up being fairly impressive.

 

Don't you ever get tired of every heatwave overachieving and every trough miserably underachiving? It gets so boring.

 

I thought you were all about diversity?

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Deweydog Grand Master

Deweydog

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Don't you ever get tired of every heatwave overachieving and every trough miserably underachiving? It gets so boring.

 

I thought you were all about diversity?

Yesterday was like a serious negative departure day. We could conceivably be in the upper 90's in a couple days.

 

Tired or not, that's diverse.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

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I do, I do!

 

Along with seeing monthly/seasonal nationwide temperature anomaly maps that show a lot of yellow, orange and red, with only a few small patches of green and blue.

 

 

Rumor has it that another ice age is quickly approaching.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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