August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Who is Brian Schmidt

 

Your best friend...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

He may or may not have you on ignore. He tries to avoid "triggers". Keeping his nose clean and such.

 

He responded to something I posted on another topic. He is the poster child of the Bernie "Revolution."

[Deweydog]

Your best friend...

My dog? What a dumb name for a dog, except on Family Guy.

[Jesse]

The GFS 0Z pretty much kicks summers can down the street after Saturday for the whole run. I love it. It's time for some autumn around here.

Agreed!

[Jesse]

You can see my daily observations and tell me we didn't have many troughs. It was almost endless day after day for 5 or 6 months.

Rain and troughs are two VERY different things.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My dog? What a dumb name for a dog, except on Family Guy.

 

This is of course because I always operate under the assumption that you are Mark Nelsen in disguise.

[Deweydog]

This is of course because I always operate under the assumption that you are Mark Nelsen in disguise.

Thank you. Aren't I on TV at this very moment?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thank you. Aren't I on TV at this very moment?

 

Probably, but you are a talented man. 

[Deweydog]

Probably, but you are a talented man.

Beside that, I post much taller than Mark.

[Kayla]

Thank you. Aren't I on TV at this very moment?

You mean to say that you've never logged into the ABA forums while in court??

[Deweydog]

Hey! I'm on again!

 

I look good. Ageless. Thanks Oil of Olay!

[Deweydog]

You mean to say that you've never logged into the ABA forums while in court??

Legal forums are awful. Imagine a forum populated by nothing but me.

[FroYoBro]

Me too! It's a lock we will see at least above average snow amounts that we usually see, possibly way more.

 

I hope we get no snow this winter just to ground you. 

[wx_statman]

Legal forums are awful. Imagine a forum populated by nothing but me.

 

That's a forum I'd never come back to.

 

 

...just kidding

[Jesse]

That's a forum I'd never come back to.

 

 

...just kidding

 

Hey Dmitri, welcome back!

[snow_wizard]

Loving the way the models are shaping up for early September.  I continue to marvel at the very persistent GOA ridge that has dominated since mid June.

[wx_statman]

Hey Dmitri, welcome back!

 

Thanks Jesse! No promises on sticking around, as usual. 

[snow_wizard]

That's a forum I'd never come back to.

 

 

...just kidding

 

Nice to see you back on here.  You, Justin, and I could get some really interesting topics going back in the day!

[Jesse]

Thanks Jesse! No promises on sticking around, as usual.

I demand at least one post putting the ridiculous warmth from March 2014 to present into context, then you are free to go.

[wx_statman]

Nice to see you back on here.  You, Justin, and I could get some really interesting topics going back in the day!

 

Thanks Jim. You can say that again. I actually went through some of our greatest hits from a few years ago, maybe a month or so ago. So much good stuff buried in the old Western archives. 

[snow_wizard]

I demand at least one post putting the ridiculous warmth from March 2014 to present into context, then you are free to go.

 

Good idea!  I would love to see his take on it.

 

It will be much more fun to look back on it than it was to go though it.  Let's hope for some equally amazing cold stats in the coming years.  I would argue we have kind of moved on from it the past couple of months.

[wx_statman]

I demand at least one post putting the ridiculous warmth from March 2014 to present into context, then you are free to go.

 

Haha. You guys already know what's up.

 

BTW its funny you called me Dmitri, because I actually went back to using that name. So you were correct. I was Dmitri Kalashnikov back on the Fox 12 blog when you first got to know me, then I legally changed my name to Alexander Baker - went through the courts and everything - and then I legally changed it back to Dmitri Kalashnikov. I'm sure somebody at the Clackamas County Courthouse is going to look through the archives one day and think what the hell? But yeah I know, I'm a weirdo. At least I'm being myself now, using my birth name and all...

 

Anyways, this is also for the people who knew me as Alex. 

 

Like I said, I'm different. LOL

[Jesse]

Haha. You guys already know what's up.

 

BTW its funny you called me Dmitri, because I actually went back to using that name. So you were correct. I was Dmitri Kalashnikov back on the Fox 12 blog when you first got to know me, then I legally changed my name to Alexander Baker - went through the courts and everything - and then I legally changed it back to Dmitri Kalashnikov. I'm sure somebody at the Clackamas County Courthouse is going to look through the archives one day and think what the hell? But yeah I know, I'm a weirdo. At least I'm being myself now, using my birth name and all...

 

Anyways, this is also for the people who knew me as Alex. 

 

Like I said, I'm different. LOL

 

Ah, that's right. I remembered vaguely that you had used another name at some point, so I knew I was going out on a limb calling you Dmitri, but it is all I could recall. Glad I was right, even if by luck!

[wx_statman]

Good idea!  I would love to see his take on it.

 

It will be much more fun to look back on it than it was to go though it.  Let's hope for some equally amazing cold stats in the coming years.  I would argue we have kind of moved on from it the past couple of months.

 

We were kind of moving on, until last week...

[wx_statman]

Ah, that's right. I remembered vaguely that you had used another name at some point, so I knew I was going out on a limb calling you Dmitri, but it is all I could recall. Glad I was right, even if by luck!

 

I would have corrected you if you were wrong. 

[Jesse]

Good idea! I would love to see his take on it.

 

It will be much more fun to look back on it than it was to go though it. Let's hope for some equally amazing cold stats in the coming years. I would argue we have kind of moved on from it the past couple of months.

I have often looked to the 1939-42 era in an attempt to find at least some period of our climate record where we experienced a comparable stretch. It is hard making a fair comparison, though. Especially considering the UHI issues now present at PDX, SEA and even places like SLE to a lesser degree. Not to mention some of those years were just slightly before the airport era.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At the time the summer of 2013 was a top 5 warm summer for EUG I believe. I think the past 3 have pushed it out...

[Jesse]

At the time the summer of 2013 was a top 5 warm summer for EUG I believe. I think the past 3 have pushed it out...

Is 2016 in the running now too?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At the time the summer of 2013 was a top 5 warm summer for EUG I believe. I think the past 2 have pushed it out...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Is 2016 in the running now too?

 

Probably not. July 2013 was MUCH warmer at EUG than July 2016. June and August will probably end up slightly warmer this year. 

 

Average high at EUG in July 2013 was an astonishing 87.2. To be topped by an 87.5 in 2014 and an ungodly 88.2 in 2015. EUG had 6+ 100 degree days in July 2015... I don't even know what to do with that....

[snow_wizard]

I have often looked to the 1939-42 era in an attempt to find at least some period of our climate record where we experienced a comparable stretch. It is hard making a fair comparison, though. Especially considering the UHI issues now present at PDX, SEA and even places like SLE to a lesser degree. Not to mention some of those years were just slightly before the airport era.

 

Kind of interesting when looking back at 1939-42 knowing what came next.  Talk about payback!

[wx_statman]

Probably not. July 2013 was MUCH warmer at EUG than July 2016. June and August will probably end up slightly warmer this year. 

 

Average high at EUG in July 2013 was an astonishing 87.2. To be topped by an 87.5 in 2014 and an ungodly 88.2 in 2015. EUG had 6+ 100 degree days in July 2015... I don't even know what to do with that....

 

That's an incredible stat. Also incredible is the fact that three separate heatwaves in one month produced 100+ at EUG. 

[snow_wizard]

Has anyone else noticed how the ensemble mean on 850mb temps has been slowly falling the period this weekend though the first week of September?  Every run drops the mean just a hair for the past couple of days.

[wx_statman]

Speaking of Summer '15, that late June heat wave was off the charts. Weather.com had a surprisingly thorough write up of that event:

 

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/washington-oregon-idaho-all-time-record-highs-june-2015

 

State records were set for the month of June in both Washington (113F) and Idaho (114F), and in both states the previous monthly record was exceeded at multiple locations. You just don't see that. 

[BLI snowman]

At the time the summer of 2013 was a top 5 warm summer for EUG I believe. I think the past 3 have pushed it out...

 

2013 was a damned coolish summer in hindsight. 

[snow_wizard]

Speaking of Summer '15, that late June heat wave was off the charts. Weather.com had a surprisingly thorough write up of that event:

 

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/washington-oregon-idaho-all-time-record-highs-june-2015

 

State records were set for the month of June in both Washington (113F) and Idaho (114F), and in both states the previous monthly record was exceeded at multiple locations. You just don't see that. 

 

Thankfully the memories from that are already fading.  You don't live in this region to endure scorching hot summers.

[BLI snowman]

Kind of interesting when looking back at 1939-42 knowing what came next.  Talk about payback!

 

Momentary payback, since the late 1943-45 period was also a total torch here.

[ShawniganLake]

Kind of interesting when looking back at 1939-42 knowing what came next.  Talk about payback!

Didn't it take some time still following 1942 for the winters to get much momentum going.  That 43-46 stretch looked pretty lame. 

[wx_statman]

Thankfully the memories from that are already fading.  You don't live in this region to endure scorching hot summers.

 

I like extremes of all varieties...

[Jesse]

Momentary payback, since the late 1943-45 period was also a total torch here.

I blame WWII.