August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

I was sitting around a camp fire at 2:15 last night.

 

Granted I wasn't posting on the forum simultaneously.

 

 

That was camping... that is different.   

 

Phil is up this later every night it seems.   He must sleep until noon.  

[TT-SEA]

Yeah..

 

How do you North Benders go about things on your last weekend before classes start?

 

 

We had a nice fire tonight... watched the moon come up on a perfect evening.  

 

But everyone is in bed now.  

 

We have 10 days before school starts here.    

[Phil]

Lucky you have that humidity there. No bonfires around here. Total fire ban. Honestly, a bonfire sounds like a terrible idea when its that hot and humid out.

Ouch.

 

Everyone is basically acclimated to the humidity at this point. I'm actually in Sarasota, FL, but feels basically the same as DC. If anything it's a bit cooler/less disgusting during the day, maybe a bit warmer/muggier at night.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is not as ridgy as its 12Z run at 144 hours but different than the GFS at that time.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016082100/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_7.png

[Phil]

00Z ECMWF is not as ridgy as its 12Z run at 144 hours but different than the GFS at that time.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016082100/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_7.png

Seems like no matter how the pattern changes, that SE ridge is just anchored there. Wonder if that'll be a trend going forward into/through the fall.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF does have a system skirting by in a week... but 850mb temps are still above normal.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016082100/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016082100/ecmwf_T850a_namer_8.png

[Jesse]

I have a unique way at looking at things. We have to think outside the box in order to improve and get better.

Think outside the box. Check. That never really crossed my mind. I'll need to work on that.

[Deweydog]

It's official! Summer is coming to an end soon!

[Jesse]

It's official! Summer is coming to an end soon!

A post like this just SCRRREEEAAMSS warm September.

[TT-SEA]

Coming around at 192 hours... definitely different than its 12Z run.    I don't think the arctic air will make it here.  Stupid Cascades!  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016082100/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png

[ShawniganLake]

Seems like the Euro is trying to split the difference.  Not so warm, but troughing is farther to the east than the GFS. 

[Deweydog]

A post like this just SCRRREEEAAMSS warm September.

Can't play fall ball during the summer...

[TT-SEA]

Hour 216... trough has arrived.  Its a lock now!   Arctic air filtering into Bellingham.     We are all set for winter now... nothing can go wrong.  

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016082100/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_10.png

[TT-SEA]

Final map...240 hours.   This screams snow.    Kidding aside... complex pattern and all the models are probably going to change more.     Does not look real hot though... that seems clear now.

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls13/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-k3a9py.png

[Jesse]

Seems like the Euro is trying to split the difference. Not so warm, but troughing is farther to the east than the GFS.

Or maybe it's just slowly trending toward the GFS.

 

Nahh...

[Jesse]

From what I can tell, the last two days were the latest back to back triple digits in PDX history.

 

Surprised there wasn't more talk about that.

[ShawniganLake]

It has a lot do with persistent 500mb anomaly centers and surface pressure anomaly centers. Certain summertime configurations have a tendency to repeat during the cold season. I have a number of indices I've created that back up what I'm saying. I hope to post of that material later. Let's just say there is much reason to be excited about this winter.

 

Whoever isn't impressed with the 500mb progression in the 5 to 7 day period on the 0z GFS just isn't seeing the light.

Look forward to reading the material you post. Maybe there is more to it than I think.

[ShawniganLake]

From what I can tell, the last two days were the latest back to back triple digits in PDX history.

 

Surprised there wasn't more talk about that.

I believe there was something in Marks blog the other day. First back to back 100+ after Aug.15th

[James Jones]

From what I can tell, the last two days were the latest back to back triple digits in PDX history.

 

Surprised there wasn't more talk about that.

It was indeed the latest it's ever happened, so a fairly historic heatwave. Salem was the most impressive station though, with three consecutive days of 102 - 104 - 101. Just like PDX it was the latest on record that they've had two triple digit days in a row, so the fact that they had three makes it all the more ridiculous. There's potential for this August to end up even warmer than the last two at some stations, which I don't think anybody thought was a real possibility.

 

This kind of stuff makes me wish this climate was still capable of historic cold snaps during the winter.

[Front Ranger]

Sure cannot wait for 42 degree drizzle...sure beats sunny warm days full of outdoor family fun activities that will be remembered for years!! Muddy yards, muddy dogs, muddy kids...yahoo!!! Cannot wait!!!!!!

No offense, I'm sure you're sincere, but you've become a one note tune.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Look forward to reading the material you post. Maybe there is more to it than I think.

 

One of the problems I have with it is that even if persistence from a summer pattern to a winter pattern can be predicted, something like a ridging tendency over the GOA is hardly guaranteed to produce exciting winter weather. Keep in mind, persistent ridging over the GOA was responsible for the blob and several of the most boring winters in memory for many of us. A good counter example would be August 2008, which saw an unusual amount of activity over the GOA and resulted in one of the best winters in living memory:

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm500_test_20080807.gif

 

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm500_test_20080819.gif

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/htmlimages/dwm500_test_20080824.gif

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Most parts of Victoria still managed to hit around 30C (86F) today, yet the airport seemed to be a cool spot this time around and failed to break a 3rd consecutive daily heat record. I was expecting things would have stayed cooler today, but this has been a pretty warm airmass and the winds stayed NE for most of the day. There's still no obvious sign of the ULL, but I'm sure it will be cold and windy tomorrow afternoon. Too bad there's little hope for any actual rain out of it; it could even make the fire situation more dangerous with the stronger winds.

[Jesse]

No real clear signal either way on the Euro ensembles just yet, but the GFS and its ensembles sure seem sold on a crash next weekend.

 

[Jesse]

Very nice to see many spots drop well into the 50s this morning.

[Geos]

Breezy and cool this morning. 60° with clouds trying to move in.

[Deweydog]

No offense, I'm sure you're sincere, but you've become a one note tune.

On the other hand, the Olympia, Washington music scene is an extremely diverse one.

[Deweydog]

It was indeed the latest it's ever happened, so a fairly historic heatwave. Salem was the most impressive station though, with three consecutive days of 102 - 104 - 101. Just like PDX it was the latest on record that they've had two triple digit days in a row, so the fact that they had three makes it all the more ridiculous. There's potential for this August to end up even warmer than the last two at some stations, which I don't think anybody thought was a real possibility.

 

This kind of stuff makes me wish this climate was still capable of historic cold snaps during the winter.

Might be some hometown bias, but Astoria's 98 will stick out the most for me from this event. Hottest day there since 7-11-61 when they hit a rogue 100. Had never been hotter than 96 since then.

[Timmy Supercell]

It was indeed the latest it's ever happened, so a fairly historic heatwave. Salem was the most impressive station though, with three consecutive days of 102 - 104 - 101. Just like PDX it was the latest on record that they've had two triple digit days in a row, so the fact that they had three makes it all the more ridiculous. There's potential for this August to end up even warmer than the last two at some stations, which I don't think anybody thought was a real possibility.

 

This kind of stuff makes me wish this climate was still capable of historic cold snaps during the winter.

 

I could easily imagine August in K-Falls being warmer than last 2 years. August has been a somewhat normal month during the "stretch" of hot summers. (2013, 2014, 2015)

[Jesse]

On the other hand, the Olympia, Washington music scene is an extremely diverse one.

Exit 108!

[Timmy Supercell]

This kind of stuff makes me wish this climate was still capable of historic cold snaps during the winter.

 

Just noticed this part of the comment... Wasn't December 2013 pretty significant? At least in the east sides of Oregon/Washington it should have been. I had my coldest December locally in 41 years (since 1972). Prolonged snap as well, I went exactly 10 days (240 consecutive hours) below 32 degrees F. Good thing I have durable trees for the most part here.

[stuffradio]

Just noticed this part of the comment... Wasn't December 2013 pretty significant? At least in the east sides of Oregon/Washington it should have been. I had my coldest December locally in 41 years (since 1972). Prolonged snap as well, I went exactly 10 days (240 hours) below 32 degrees F. Good thing I have durable trees for the most part here.

January 2012 was "significant" up here.

 

 

By the way, what a ridiculous quote. "And we're already seeing evidence of that in terms of how the jet stream is changing, it's becoming less of a west to east flow and more of a loopy flow, kind of more north to south which leads to more extreme events, things like droughts things like torrential rains and flooding."" Isn't that caused by Rossby waves?

 

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/nasa-calls-arctic-sea-ice-decline-new-normal-heres-why-/71344/

[Phil]

Yeah, variations in the Arctic sea ice extent have essentially zero observable influence on the equator-pole thermal gradient.

[MossMan]

No offense, I'm sure you're sincere, but you've become a one note tune.

It's summer...how many notes can there really be?

[Deweydog]

Exit 108!

Um, that's Lacey.

[Jesse]

Um, that's Lacey.

You missed the reference.

[Jesse]

It's summer...how many notes can there really be?

From what I can tell there are several.

 

There are some who will be happy with no less than near-record heat all summer, every summer, and will gripe about any departure from that. Then there are those of us who like summers on the normal or even the coolish side. And of course everything in between.

[Jesse]

12z Canadian trended even troughier for Friday-Saturday.

[ShawniganLake]

12z Canadian trended even troughier for Friday-Saturday.

Every GFS ensemble member is on board for the weekend crash. 

[ShawniganLake]

Strong surge of West winds down the Strait this morning.  Gusting to 55mph at Trial Island, off the southern tip of Victoria. 

 

Speaking of Victoria.  YYJ is at 65.3F for the month to date.  The Record for August is 64.6F from 1942.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Strong surge of West winds down the Strait this morning.  Gusting to 55mph at Trial Island, off the southern tip of Victoria. 

 

Speaking of Victoria.  YYJ is at 65.3F for the month to date.  The Record for August is 64.6F from 1942.

 

Abbotsford is at 67.6 through yesterday. That ties with 2014 for the second warmest on record. The record is 68.4 from 2004.

 

I bet it'll be close - it just depends on how the weekend turns out. If it's as troughy as the GFS, then no.