August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

It has decent ensemble support too.

 

Praying the 12z Euro was wrong. That was one hideous run. Especially considering the heat we are currently going through.

 

Yeah...two very solid ensemble runs and the 18z moved up the timing.  Trough number 2 looks like a reasonable shot now.

[Phil]

Month to date so far. Looks like the majority of the cool anomalies will be located in the Intermountain West, somewhat east of Niña climo, thanks to stubborn WPAC/dateline forcing.

 

Everything else in line..the SE ridge is cranking up, and the trade winds are blowing.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A8D31748-04D7-4546-B943-76D19840789F_zpsqh8xjl82.png

[snow_wizard]

Better yet, what's the point of worrying about people worrying about it?

 

There is a big difference between the 95-100 some would like to see every day this time of year and the 70-75 others prefer.

 

Some people don't get that summer patterns have a bearing on what happens in the winter...or at least can give some clues.

[GHweatherChris]

Better yet, what's the point of worrying about people worrying about it?

 

There is a big difference between the 95-100 some would like to see every day this time of year and the 70-75 others prefer.

Hmmm... then why do most of you get frustrated by others opinions on wants and likes? Daily...

[GHweatherChris]

Some people don't get that summer patterns have a bearing on what happens in the winter...or at least can give some clues.

Technically, what happened in August 3 years ago has a bearing on this winter. Just saying, one thing begets another.

[Phil]

For the sake of this forum, I hope October doesn't ridge out like August. Meltdowns of epic proportions would commence.

[snow_wizard]

For the sake of this forum, I hope October doesn't ridge out like August. Meltdowns of epic proportions would commence.

 

In actuality there will probably be three periods of troughing this month.  Not terrible.

 

I suppose anything could happen in October, but I think NW troughing / GOA ridge is the best bet.

[Jesse]

For the sake of this forum, I hope October doesn't ridge out like August. Meltdowns of epic proportions would commence.

Is that looking like a possibility?

 

Although given how bad you blew August I might take your thoughts with a grain of salt.

[Jesse]

Hmmm... then why do most of you get frustrated by others opinions on wants and likes? Daily...

What's the point of worrying about it?

[GHweatherChris]

What's the point of worrying about it?

What's the point of what you and others do on this forum to some members, just sad that an internet forum can make people emotional like this one does.

 

Getting irritated by others opinions is odd to say the least, like what you like dont let others dictate your emotion and don't degrade others opinions.

[TT-SEA]

For planning purposes I need to know the cloud cover tomorrow at 11 am. The WRF does horrible with this situation. And the wundermap site is still not up. Can someone show me the ECMWF cloud map for tomorrow at 11?

[Guest Winterdog]

Some people don't get that summer patterns have a bearing on what happens in the winter...or at least can give some clues.

I wonder who those people might be.

[Guest Winterdog]

What's the point of what you and others do on this forum to some members, just sad that an internet forum can make people emotional like this one does.

 

Getting irritated by others opinions is odd to say the least, like what you like dont let others dictate your emotion and don't degrade others opinions.

It's just plain human nature. Opinions are just about all anyone ever gets upset about on any forum. That's just my opinion of course.

[GHweatherChris]

It's just plain human nature. Opinions are just about all anyone ever gets upset about on any forum. That's just my opinion of course.

It is dumb, its a forum, next step to fake life.

[GHweatherChris]

For planning purposes I need to know the cloud cover tomorrow at 11 am. The WRF does horrible with this situation. And the wundermap site is still not up. Can someone show me the ECMWF cloud map for tomorrow at 11?

It will be what it is, deal...

[Jesse]

It will be what it is, deal...

You should take your own advice.

 

I think the irony of you feeling that there is a point to telling everyone that their posts are pointless is being lost on you.

[Jesse]

Must be one of the latest back to back 100s in Portland history.

[GHweatherChris]

You should take your own advice.

 

I think the irony of you feeling that there is a point to telling everyone that their posts are pointless is being lost on you.

Same can be said for all on this forum.

 

I include myself too, but seeing grown adults piss and moan about weather patterns is so ridiculous. You never see me complain about the weather, I am just waiting for the next 2008.

 

#weatherwilldowhatever no reason to to be irritated by others tastes, it is what it is.

[ShawniganLake]

Some people don't get that summer patterns have a bearing on what happens in the winter...or at least can give some clues.

Do you have any data that backs up this idea. Seems like with shifting ENSO, changing wavelengths, and a strengthening jet stream, that the August to winter correlations would be pretty weak. I seem to remember 1990 being pretty warm in the summer.

[Phil]

Is that looking like a possibility?

 

Although given how bad you blew August I might take your thoughts with a grain of salt.

I highly doubt it unless everything we've known about climatological tendencies under given underlying forcings has changed dramatically.

 

Also, to be fair, the first 1/3rd of the month followed Niña climo.

 

The tropical forcing is in a very unusual state for a Niña, not seen since the 1970s actually (when WP convergence was biased eastward climatologically). Every model and every analog (except 1988) was quite off in this regard.

[Phil]

For planning purposes I need to know the cloud cover tomorrow at 11 am. The WRF does horrible with this situation. And the wundermap site is still not up. Can someone show me the ECMWF cloud map for tomorrow at 11?

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5E5BDB11-921A-41C8-B7E4-B20689C35522_zpszglkkuab.png

[GHweatherChris]

 

For planning purposes I need to know the cloud cover tomorrow at 11 am. The WRF does horrible with this situation. And the wundermap site is still not up. Can someone show me the ECMWF cloud map for tomorrow at 11?

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5E5BDB11-921A-41C8-B7E4-B20689C35522_zpszglkkuab.png

Why feed that cheapskate?

[Jesse]

I highly doubt it unless everything we've known about climatological tendencies under given underlying forcings has changed dramatically.

 

Also, to be fair, the first 1/3rd of the month followed Niña climo.

 

The tropical forcing is in a very unusual state for a Niña, not seen since the 1970s actually (when WP convergence was biased eastward climatologically). Every model and every analog (except 1988) was quite off in this regard.

I'm just giving you a hard time.

 

You were right about the majority of the summer. Things went off the rails after 8/10, but if the models that are showing a return to a cool pattern by next weekend are correct, that will only be a ~2 week window that you were off on.

[TT-SEA]

Why feed that cheapskate?

Its expensive! I want the wundermap site to get back to full functionality.

[Jesse]

67 in Kelso. 84 in Portland.

 

Just a matter of time for some cooling. And right as we get back from camping.

[Jesse]

Camping near Mount Adams we missed the worst of the heat, thankfully. Topped off in the mid-80s the last two days with nights dropping into the low 50s.

[GHweatherChris]

Its expensive! I want the wundermap site to get back to full functionality.

Well, I am sure you can afford 25 bucks a month considering Phil only makes 8.33 an hour apparently.

[Phil]

There's just too much cyclonic activity going out right now in the Western Pacific. I don't like how they keep re-curving, that's an area of concern for me here in the PNW for Winter. We still got a long ways to go though.

 

http://i.imgur.com/0cb0csy.gif

The cyclones are developing as a result of the antecedent lift (forcing) occuring there. The same pattern would've resulted regardless of the typhoons.

 

The "typhoon rule is laughably overplayed.

[Phil]

I'm just giving you a hard time.

 

You were right about the majority of the summer. Things went off the rails after 8/10, but if the models that are showing a return to a cool pattern by next weekend are correct, that will only be a ~2 week window that you were off on.

Haha, no problem. Every year is a learning opportunity.

[Phil]

Well, I am sure you can afford 25 bucks a month considering Phil only makes 8.33 an hour apparently.

Lol..FWIW, when I'm not in the classroom, I make $17/hr as an arborist & hardscaper for a landscape/construction company.

 

Pays my tuition and my WxBell bills.

[GHweatherChris]

FWIW, other than being a full time student, I make $17/hr as an arborist and hardscaper for a landscape/construction company.

 

Pays my tuition and my WxBell bills.

Well, when you said it is worth a few hours a month yesterday to have Weatherbell it works out to 8.33 a month. So... one has to assume you either live at home or your baby mama is rich.

[Phil]

Well, when you said it is worth a few hours a month yesterday to have Weatherbell it works out to 8.33 a month. So... one has to assume you either live at home or your baby mama is rich.

What the hell are you talking about? Where'd you get $8.33/hr from?

[Phil]

You should take your own advice.

I think the irony of you feeling that there is a point to telling everyone that their posts are pointless is being lost on you.

Has this guy (GHChris) always been such a d*uchebag?

[FroYoBro]

Well, when you said it is worth a few hours a month yesterday to have Weatherbell it works out to 8.33 a month. So... one has to assume you either live at home or your baby mama is rich.

 

It is completely inappropriate to be making fun of someone's wages. Come on man. 

[Jesse]

Has this guy (GHChris) always been such a d*uchebag?

He usually seems angry. Extra angry tonight.

 

Might be heat sensitive.

[GHweatherChris]

Yeah it definitely is (can do a one-time yearly charge too).

 

At least for me, it's worth sacrificing a few hours' paycheck every month, but then again I'm not putting kids through college or paying down a mortgage on a beautiful estate.

This statement proves you said you only make $8.33 an hour or so.

[Phil]

This statement proves you said you only make $8.33 an hour or so.

What? How so?

 

You're literally making no sense right now.

[GHweatherChris]

He usually seems angry. Extra angry tonight.

 

Might be heat sensitive.

Well if honesty equals anger you are right, but overall you are wrong.

[Phil]

Well if honesty equals anger you are right, but overall you are wrong.

Did you miss your meds or something?

[TT-SEA]

GFS is consistent in showing troughing next weekend. I still think it's reading the tropics wrong and will change.