August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

Just the typical premium package. It's about $25/month.

 

 

Crap... that is expensive.   More than my satellite radio that my wife wants to cut!  

[Phil]

Crap... that is expensive. More than my satellite radio that my wife wants to cut!

Yeah it definitely is (can do a one-time yearly charge too).

 

At least for me, it's worth sacrificing a few hours' paycheck every month, but then again I'm not putting kids through college or paying down a mortgage on a beautiful estate.

[MossMan]

I see smoke to the north...wasn't aware of any fired up north. Anyway nice and warm with a slight breeze at the lake house...thermometer is broken so I can't give an hourly temp. Sorry. Going jetsking now!

[TT-SEA]

Phil... what does the ECMWF show for Seattle temps over the next week?

[Geos]

Wow was I the only cold spot with a low of 56 degrees?

 

Managed to get to 58° here this morning.

 

Up to like 88° now.

[Front Ranger]

Phil... what does the ECMWF show for Seattle temps over the next week?

 

Really milking this for all you can, aren't you? 

[Phil]

Phil... what does the ECMWF show for Seattle temps over the next week?

Yeah, you need WxBell, dude.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/04DB8630-8667-471E-A16F-A2F6CD65B102_zpsi5f9n85b.png

[Front Ranger]

This is incredible!

 

 

NWS Portland ‏@NWSPortland

 

"1pm | Tillamook & Salem are already 99°F with most others not far behind. #pdxtst #orwx"

 

SEA and OLM both currently at 91. SEA is +9 over yesterday at this time.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, you need WxBell, dude.http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/04DB8630-8667-471E-A16F-A2F6CD65B102_zpsi5f9n85b.png

Amazing the next heat wave is even more impressive.

[TT-SEA]

Really milking this for all you can, aren't you? 

Yes!

[Front Ranger]

Amazing the next heat wave is even more impressive.

 

Highly unlikely to verify.

[TT-SEA]

Highly unlikely to verify.

Not sure... this is not the only run to show this and the stage is set in less than a week.

[ShawniganLake]

Record warm August could be on the table at some locations, if that next surge of warmth verified.

[Geos]

I see smoke to the north...wasn't aware of any fired up north. Anyway nice and warm with a slight breeze at the lake house...thermometer is broken so I can't give an hourly temp. Sorry. Going jetsking now!

 

There was/is a fire near Hurricane Ridge to your west I know. Started up overnight.

 

Up to 90° now.

[GHweatherChris]

95 at Hoquiam, impressive, 2 degrees above forecast and 6 degrees above the record of 89 set in 2009!!!  96 here so far.

 

Time to jump in the pool!!!

[Geos]

Up to 92° at SEA and OLM.

 

96-97° around Shelton, McCleary right now!

[GobBluth]

May need the winds to relax in Portland to get the temps up much further - up only 2 degrees since the 12:20 report.

[Front Ranger]

95 at Hoquiam, impressive, 2 degrees above forecast and 6 degrees above the record of 89 set in 2009!!!  96 here so far.

 

Time to jump in the pool!!!

 

August record is 98 from 1981.

 

To me, 1981 remains the single greatest PNW heatwave on record. Not just tons of widespread monthly records, some all-time records. And it had persistence.

[MossMan]

The new 12z EPS says we could repeat things again next week and beyond. We will be stuck in this pattern until the end of August. The earliest pattern change could occur beginning of September but I think mid-September is a better estimate. I'm hoping for a faster pattern switch though.

 

http://i.imgur.com/LTuFMfs.pnghttp://i.imgur.com/W4E2TGg.png

Late summer perfection!

[GHweatherChris]

August record is 98 from 1981.

 

To me, 1981 remains the single greatest PNW heatwave on record. Not just tons of widespread monthly records, some all-time records. And it had persistence.

They beat the record for today by 6 degrees, should have clarified.

 

Where do you get your monthly data from?

[GHweatherChris]

98 here now, wind has died down, the pool hasn't been much help for relief today.

[Geos]

OLM has really dried out. 95/45 currently.

 

91° here with winds 10-15 mph. Winds are keeping the atmosphere a bit mixed.

[Geos]

Yep that's definitely a fire south of Hurricane Ridge.

 

[Guest Winterdog]

Late summer perfection!

Yeah if you live in northern Michigan or Wisconsin. Early autumn perfection.

[Geos]

Looks like Newport, OR is being spared of any major heat so far. Amazing that 77 F is considered a Heat Advisory for them. They were up to 68 F before falling back down to 63 F, but there's still time for the offshore flow to dominate. 60s and 90s could be within walking distance in some areas today.

 

Still cool there. 64°

 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=MD1265

[snow_wizard]

The winds breifly switched the easterly here a couple of hours ago and the dp dropped to 35.   Even now it's in the 40s which makes the heat much less noticeable.

 

I'm loving the fact the models are still going a bit stronger with the trough early next week.  You have to like how pretty much everything has been dropping down from the north this summer.  Looking pretty likely we get another cool trough in the 7 to 12 day period.  Not bad at all.

[James Jones]

Eugene is at 104, the hottest they've ever been this late in the season. Meanwhile, PDX is stuck at 99. Too much wind.

[snow_wizard]

August record is 98 from 1981.

 

To me, 1981 remains the single greatest PNW heatwave on record. Not just tons of widespread monthly records, some all-time records. And it had persistence.

 

Oddly that was one of the years I lived in Central WA.  I remember Yakima had some unbelievable streak of 100+ days.

[TT-SEA]

The winds breifly switched the easterly here a couple of hours ago and the dp dropped to 35.   Even now it's in the 40s which makes the heat much less noticeable.

 

I'm loving the fact the models are still going a bit stronger with the trough early next week.  You have to like how pretty much everything has been dropping down from the north this summer.  Looking pretty likely we get another cool trough in the 7 to 12 day period.  Not bad at all.

 

Drops in from the NW.   ECMWF has one day around normal and then warms up again.   

 

This does not look like alternating cool and warm periods.  Its almost all above normal.   

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/04DB8630-8667-471E-A16F-A2F6CD65B102_zpsi5f9n85b.png

[snow_wizard]

Funny how the people that like warm weather keep posting the 500mb maps from the warm periods and forget about the major troughs showing up.  I think the huge variability being shown is pretty dynamic.  How people can still be so obsessed with a steady of diet of heat is beyond me.

 

Looking like a hurricane threat coming up for somewhere in the SE.

[TT-SEA]

Although Jim... I must commend you for not complaining about the fact that August will end up significantly above normal.  

[TT-SEA]

Funny how the people that like warm weather keep posting the 500mb maps from the warm periods and forget about the major troughs showing up.  I think the huge variability being shown is pretty dynamic.  How people can still be so obsessed with a steady of diet of heat is beyond me.

 

Looking like a hurricane threat coming up for somewhere in the SE.

 

 

There is one quick trough day in the next 10 days per the reliable ECMWF.   And that day is sunny by noon and probably in the mid-70s.   And that will feel awesome!

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF ensemble mean is strongly indicating ridging continuing for the next 10 days (aside from brief trough sliding through BC on Monday).   Even at 240 hours:

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls15/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls15-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-LI9Sqh.png

[snow_wizard]

Just the typical premium package. It's about $25/month.

 

I'm going to sign up again in October.  Well worth it during the cold season.

[snow_wizard]

This is turning out to be a fantastic heat wave for the PNW. The hottest temperatures we've ever seen this time of year from all the way up north in Port Angeles to way down south in Eugene!

 

It will make the crash on Sunday and Monday that much more fantastic!

[snow_wizard]

Although Jim... I must commend you for not complaining about the fact that August will end up significantly above normal.  

 

I actually don't mind if there is some variability thrown in there.  I go nuts in years where we have 4 to 6 weeks of straight warmth mid August through September.  Even worse if it goes into October.

[TT-SEA]

Remember when we thought upper 80s in April might be the warmest weather for the rest of the year?  

[snow_wizard]

There is one quick trough day in the next 10 days per the reliable ECMWF.   And that day is sunny by noon and probably in the mid-70s.   And that will feel awesome!

 

The ECMWF has had a couple of interesting runs also.  A lot of uncertainty.

[TT-SEA]

I actually don't mind if there is some variability thrown in there.  I go nuts in years where we have 4 to 6 weeks of straight warmth mid August through September.  Even worse if it goes into October.

 

 

There is maybe one day around normal with probably most every day for the rest of the month above normal.  And many well above normal.     

 

This is a very warm pattern.     There is going to inevitably be some occasional break downs in the ridging.

[snow_wizard]

Dps have slipped into the 40s now in most places.  Nice to see.