August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

So another heat wave next week and then no more high end heat. Is the la Nina starting to affect the pattern yet?

Would be nice to have a stretch of 70s for awhile.

Why do you hate summer/America?!?

[BLI snowman]

Nah, just have been stuck in a boring rut for awhile now. I know you agree.

 

Our summer climate does tend to be kind of inoffensive and dull here. My mom says that's just the way that God decided to make us.

[Jesse]

Our summer climate does tend to be kind of inoffensive and dull here. My mom says that's just the way that God decided to make us.

We used to get more winter record lows back when there were more summer record lows. Coincidence????

 

I'm sure we will start having record breaking heat every summer and record breaking cold every winter very soon. They totally go together.

[BLI snowman]

So another heat wave next week and then no more high end heat. Is the la Nina starting to affect the pattern yet?

Would be nice to have a stretch of 70s for awhile.

 

The La Nina is struggling to find a pulse at this point still and we're probably a few months away at best from seeing Nina forcings really have much of an impact. 

[TT-SEA]

Why do you hate summer/America?!?

Obviously 70s is too hot as well. So are 50s. 38 and rain should be the norm in August. And December.

[Jesse]

Up to 86 at PDX.

 

14 degrees in 4-5 hours? Yes we can!

[BLI snowman]

We used to get more winter record lows back when there were more summer record lows. Coincidence????

 

I'm sure we will start having record breaking heat every summer and record breaking cold every winter very soon. They totally go together.

 

12,000 years ago your house was on the edge of a huge ice sheet. I hear August record lows were all the rage back then. 

[TT-SEA]

We used to get more winter record lows back when there were more summer record lows. Coincidence????

 

I'm sure we will start having record breaking heat every summer and record breaking cold every winter very soon. They totally go together.

Warming climate.

[Geos]

Why do you hate summer/America?!?

 

I don't.. - Would be nice to have warm, but not hot weather next week. A bit of a break and switch things up a little. 75-85° is my ideal summer weather.

[Deweydog]

Up to 86 at PDX.

 

14 degrees in 4-5 hours? Yes we can!

If it happens it'll be D**n impressive. I'm liking 98.

[Jesse]

I don't.. - Would be nice to have warm, but not hot weather next week. A bit of a break and switch things up a little. 75-85° is my ideal summer weather.

I was being sarcastic. We are on the same page.

[Geos]

Into the 80s now. 82-83° about. Dew point at 62°.

 

Looking at Mt. Olympus from here... sure doesn't have much snow on the east side anymore.

[Deweydog]

I don't.. - Would be nice to have warm, but not hot weather next week. A bit of a break and switch things up a little. 75-85° is my ideal summer weather.

85???

 

Blech!!! That's above average !

[Phil]

Hey Phil... what does the 12Z ECMWF have for a high in Seattle on Sunday? Probably going to be an early high that day.

Looks like 80 degrees.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/ECD96637-4A1A-44A6-A26D-F6EEC6C3D557_zpsmqeuyfzn.png

[Phil]

The La Nina is struggling to find a pulse at this point still and we're probably a few months away at best from seeing Nina forcings really have much of an impact.

The Niña forcing has been "having an impact" for awhile now, and the thermocline is finally beginning to slosh back after a solid month of strong trades. Fluid inertia behind the completion of the last KW cycle was keeping the thermocline at bay for awhile, but that is ending now.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

[Front Ranger]

Looks like 80 degrees.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/ECD96637-4A1A-44A6-A26D-F6EEC6C3D557_zpsmqeuyfzn.png

4 degrees warmer than what the NWS currently has for SEA.

[BLI snowman]

The Niña forcing has been "having an impact" for awhile now, and the thermocline is finally beginning to slosh back after a solid month of strong trades. Fluid inertia behind the completion of the last KW cycle was keeping the thermocline at bay for awhile, but that is ending now.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

 

First year Ninas don't tend to have a very quantifiable impact on our weather here until fall is well underway, generally October or November. This year appears no different. What we are seeing right now barely even qualifies as Nina territory (-0.6 anomaly in region 3.4 at last check). 

[Jesse]

First year Ninas don't tend to have a very quantifiable impact on our weather here until fall is well underway, generally October or November. This year appears no different. What we are seeing right now barely even qualifies as Nina territory (-0.6 anomaly in region 3.4 at last check).

Are you feeling a multi-year event?

[Geos]

85???

 

Blech!!! That's above average !

 

 If it's really dry it's ok. And especially if your at the beach. 

[Jesse]

12z Euro ensembles still look pretty different from the operational beyond day 6-7. Hopefully that means something this time. 12z GFS ensembles trended cooler too, fwiw.

 

Whatever the case, I think the way the 12z Euro operational ejects that low around hour 192 looks pretty wonky...

[Phil]

First year Ninas don't tend to have a very quantifiable impact on our weather here until fall is well underway, generally October or November. This year appears no different. What we are seeing right now barely even qualifies as Nina territory (-0.6 anomaly in region 3.4 at last check).

Then why do developing 1st year Niñas have a cool J/A/S return rate that's twice as high as developing 1st year Niños?

 

The "Niña forcing" (technically described as a weaker equatorward convective component over the Pacific relative to the peripheral longitudes) begins affecting the pattern long before SSTAs fully respond. It actually precedes the ENSO SSTAs and drives the trade winds that create the SSTAs in the first place.

[Jesse]

Then why do developing 1st yet Niñas have a cool J/A/S return rate that's twice as high as developing 1st year Niños?

 

The "Niña forcing" (technically described as a weaker equatorward convective component over the Pacific relative to the peripheral longitudes) begins affecting the pattern long before SSTAs fully respond. It actually precedes the ENSO SSTAs.

All I know is that my A/S/S will be roasting this weekend. I don't think anyone foresaw such a hot August pattern for us.

[BLI snowman]

Are you feeling a multi-year event?

 

Ninas tend to come in pairs or threes, so I'd say that 2017-18 will very likely at least be a cold neutral pseudo-Nina (i.e. 1996-97 or 2001-02) type of year.

[Phil]

All I know is that my A/S/S will be roasting this weekend. I don't think anyone foresaw such a hot August pattern for us.

I certainly didn't (though the 8/1 to 8/10 period was the most anomalously troughy period of the summer so far).

 

Intraseasonal forcing is a *****..

[BLI snowman]

Then why do developing 1st year Niñas have a cool J/A/S return rate that's twice as high as developing 1st year Niños?

 

The "Niña forcing" (technically described as a weaker equatorward convective component over the Pacific relative to the peripheral longitudes) begins affecting the pattern long before SSTAs fully respond. It actually precedes the ENSO SSTAs.

 

In recent decades there really isn't a significant trend here at all.

 

2010 had a cool midsummer followed by a mild September/October. 

 

2007 was a year where I felt like the Nina did start to noticeably impact our weather in September. July was hot and August was average, before the -PNA stuff really took over in September.

 

1998 was a very warm, sticky summer here, through the end of September.

 

1995 had a generally warm July, cool August, and very hot September.

 

1988 had an average summer (with plenty of heat spikes) leading into a blowtorch October. 

 

1973, like 1995, had a warm July, cool August, and a warm September.

 

 

Further back, you do have some ENSO transition years like 1964 that were historically cold throughout for our region, and then years like 1954 with extreme troughing in the summer followed by very ridgy falls.

 

It seems like an overall crapshoot until you get well into fall.

[Front Ranger]

The Niña forcing has been "having an impact" for awhile now, and the thermocline is finally beginning to slosh back after a solid month of strong trades. Fluid inertia behind the completion of the last KW cycle was keeping the thermocline at bay for awhile, but that is ending now.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

 

Yet another phrase we just wouldn't be hearing without a Phil around.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like 80 degrees.

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/ECD96637-4A1A-44A6-A26D-F6EEC6C3D557_zpsmqeuyfzn.png

Thanks!

[ShawniganLake]

Some mid 90's showing in the Fraser Valley. Abbotsford_wx's station is showing 96F currently.

[ShawniganLake]

Looking at shawnigan lake area. My place is likely sitting right around 90 currently.

[Deweydog]

All I know is that my A/S/S will be roasting this weekend. I don't think anyone foresaw such a hot August pattern for us.

It's the typical dynamic here where ninas are over-estimated with regard to their immediate impact a while ninos are denied well after it's clear they're pulling the strings.

[Front Ranger]

In recent decades there really isn't a significant trend here at all.

 

2010 had a cool midsummer followed by a mild September/October. 

 

2007 was a year where I felt like the Nina did start to noticeably impact our weather in September. July was hot and August was average, before the -PNA stuff really took over in September.

 

1998 was a very warm, sticky summer here, through the end of September.

 

1995 had a generally warm July, cool August, and very hot September.

 

1988 had an average summer (with plenty of heat spikes) leading into a blowtorch October. 

 

1973, like 1995, had a warm July, cool August, and a warm September.

 

 

Further back, you do have some ENSO transition years like 1964 that were historically cold throughout for our region, and then years like 1954 with extreme troughing in the summer followed by very ridgy falls.

 

It seems like an overall crapshoot until you get well into fall.

 

For JAS, the months Phil referenced, all developing -ENSO years back to 1970. Not cool for the PNW, but cooler than just about anywhere else in the country.

 

 

[Jesse]

Looking at shawnigan lake area. My place is likely sitting right around 90 currently.

What do you think it is outside?

[BLI snowman]

Bit surprising to see EUG at just 88 with BLI at 85, HIO at 97, and YXX at 93.

[Phil]

In recent decades there really isn't a significant trend here at all.

 

2010 had a cool midsummer followed by a mild September/October.

 

2007 was a year where I felt like the Nina did start to noticeably impact our weather in September. July was hot and August was average, before the -PNA stuff really took over in September.

 

1998 was a very warm, sticky summer here, through the end of September.

 

1995 had a generally warm July, cool August, and very hot September.

 

1988 had an average summer (with plenty of heat spikes) leading into a blowtorch October.

 

1973, like 1995, had a warm July, cool August, and a warm September.

 

 

Further back, you do have some ENSO transition years like 1964 that were historically cold throughout for our region, and then years like 1954 with extreme troughing in the summer followed by very ridgy falls.

 

It seems like an overall crapshoot until you get well into fall.

Let's look at these years @ 500mb, and compare them to the corresponding most recent Niño years. There is most certainly an effect.

 

Niña years you mentioned:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F7C58659-31F3-4FE4-8A39-7AF6335E39D8_zpsn2pgoq3z.png

 

Corresponding Niño years:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DC166251-6CE9-4132-B92C-F1E6337B5408_zps7conzuyn.png

[Deweydog]

Interesting. Downslope surfaces lightly at Hillsboro while winds remain calm in Troutdale.

[Jesse]

It's the typical dynamic here where ninas are over-estimated with regard to their immediate impact a while ninos are denied well after it's clear they're pulling the strings.

So you think this is Nino lag triggered?

 

I think who is overestimating what here depends on who you are talking to. There is a pretty vocal warm-leaning crowd here as well. Both "sides" are actually pretty well represented.

[Front Ranger]

Bit surprising to see EUG at just 88 with BLI at 85, HIO at 97, and YXX at 93.

 

As often the case, lots of spread up and down I-5 corridor. 

 

SEA: 82

OLM: 84

Everett: 79

[Abbotsford_wx]

Wow, that's crazy you guys got to 90 already before noon. Is it common there to reach your high around noon?

 

Not at all. Usually between 3 and 4 pm. I think we could see upper 90's in places today.

[Deweydog]

So you think this is Nino lag triggered?

 

I think who is overestimating what here depends on who you are talking to. There is a pretty vocal warm-leaning crowd here as well. Both "sides" are actually pretty well represented.

I don't think leanings have much to do with it. ENSO generally is pretty anemic as far as it's grip on our pattern during the warm season.

[Deweydog]

Bit surprising to see EUG at just 88 with BLI at 85, HIO at 97, and YXX at 93.

Classic setup where the north valley is ground zero.