August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[James Jones]

I hope we get another Indian Summer in early October. Really looking forward to a few days I jump from 28 and freezing fog to 80+ and clear.

You need to spend a couple years living in the Midwest at some point. Although if you do end up doing that, your heart might explode from excitement.

[Kayla]

Ha! He goes on a typical Jim rant and then the next day is praising our weather. I would say he welcomed some ridicule.

 

Haha, you got him!!!

[TT-SEA]

The good old crazy 18z GFS. At least in the winter it gives everybody hope that an Arctic Blast is always around the corner. 

 

 

18Z run is like the Canadian... its right with its crazy solutions just enough to keep you interested.  

[Trainwreck]

Big roller coaster.

 

A couple very warm days... then back to maybe a little above normal... and then probably a little more above normal.

 

Doesn't it normally stay in the mid to upper 90s for all of the second half of August and September?

 

And remember... this climate sucks beyond comprehension. Loathe it right? Don't be praising anything here.

 

Tim, keep poking the bear, then again, I'm bored too with this northwest weather. No trw's or anything but dry heat. Ya, great exciting summer......sigh.

[ShawniganLake]

The 18z looked pretty wacky. Doubt the 0z looks much like it, at least with the longer range stuff.

[snow_wizard]

Same with our 85+ stretch!

 

Who would have thought today would be the coolest day.  The high temps have fallen every day for the last several days at many locations.

[snow_wizard]

The good old crazy 18z GFS. At least in the winter it gives everybody hope that an Arctic Blast is always around the corner. 

 

Everything is showing the cool clipper early next week.  That's good enough for me for now.  Interestingly the ECMWF has had a couple of runs that would be Arctic in the winter also.

[ShawniganLake]

83/53 up this way today. Monday was the coolest day at 82F.

[snow_wizard]

Tim, keep poking the bear, then again, I'm bored too with this northwest weather. No trw's or anything but dry heat. Ya, great exciting summer......sigh.

 

I like dry summers.  Our summers used to be cooler and drier than they are now.  Most of them are pretty uneventful.  I think the West owns the East for summers.  Just my opinion.

[snow_wizard]

83/53 up this way today. Monday was the coolest day at 82F.

 

Your highs have been warmer than mine.  That seems odd.

[TT-SEA]

Everything is showing the cool clipper early next week.  That's good enough for me for now.  Interestingly the ECMWF has had a couple of runs that would be Arctic in the winter also.

 

 

Even in the dead of winter... what appears to be arctic does not always work for us.    Let alone speculating optimistically in August about what it would be in winter.  

[ShawniganLake]

Your highs have been warmer than mine. That seems odd.

The last week has been. 84, 89, 87, 82, 82, 83, 83

[snow_wizard]

No month is perfect. But I've shown my work before...October is the best bet overall, at least for the PNW/West.

 

The last couple Octobers certainly did nothing to disprove this hypothesis. 

 

I completely agree.  October is kind of a crystal ball in a lot of ways.  If you further refine your research using various caveats it really becomes amazing.

[snow_wizard]

Ahhh Jim... you realize you say this every August and September.    Its August.   

 

Even in the dead of winter... what appears to be arctic does not always work for us.    Let alone speculating optimistically in August about what it would be in winter.  

 

For early next week I'm merely thinking of not going insane with endless heat.

 

I really like the mean placement of the 500mb and surface pressure anomaly centers this summer.  Very different than recent years.  That is what's really significant IMO.

[snow_wizard]

The last week has been. 84, 89, 87, 82, 82, 83, 83

 

What are you normal highs this time of year?

[TT-SEA]

For early next week I'm merely thinking of not going insane with endless heat.

 

I really like the mean placement of the 500mb and surface pressure anomaly centers this summer.  Very different than recent years.  That is what's really significant IMO.

 

 

Endless?   One week in the 80s?    Step back and think about that.   

[Timmy Supercell]

Endless?   One week in the 80s?    Step back and think about that.   

 

Right. Now, "endless" would be when I had a month worth of 90-99 in July 2014. Maybe 1 or 2 days ended up below 90.

[Deweydog]

Endless? One week in the 80s? Step back and think about that.

You go first!

[ShawniganLake]

What are you normal highs this time of year?

Officially 74F for Shawnigan Lake in Mid August.  Although my location typically runs 1-2F higher for highs and 1-2F lower for the lows, at least during the summer. 

[TT-SEA]

Officially 74F for Shawnigan Lake in Mid August.  Although my location typically runs 1-2F higher for highs and 1-2F lower for the lows, at least during the summer. 

 

 

Its been really warm up there then.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS ups the ante with the trough on Sunday... got to give Matt credit for seeing that long before the models settled on the solution.

[Deweydog]

00Z GFS ups the ante with the trough on Sunday... got to give Matt credit for seeing that long before the models settled on the solution.

The 00z Michael J. Fox caved too. You're screwed.

[Jesse]

The 00z Michael J. Fox caved too. You're screwed.

 

This heatwave is starting to look like a quick, but intense, hitter followed by a rapid cooldown. My favorite kind. Dynamic!

[Deweydog]

This heatwave is starting to look like a quick, but intense, hitter followed by a rapid cooldown. My favorite kind. Dynamic!

Very similar to years that had winters that followed a few months later...

[TT-SEA]

The 00z Michael J. Fox caved too. You're screwed.

 

 

Have you seen the Canadian already?    Not updated for me.   

 

It would have to cave now I think.

[TT-SEA]

Another ridge building on the 00Z GFS in a week...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_168_500_vort_ht.gif

[Deweydog]

Another ridge building on the 00Z GFS in a week...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/namer/500_vort_ht/gfs_namer_168_500_vort_ht.gif

Dynamic!

[Geos]

Is this a joke? *Excessive heat warnings* for highs in the upper 80s/low 90s and lows in the upper 50s/low 60s?

 

When your not acclimated to it, that's hot here! I'll be ready for cooler weather after the next 3 days.

[TT-SEA]

Dynamic!

 

 

Fall-like!  

[Deweydog]

Have you seen the Canadian already? Not updated for me.

 

It would have to cave now I think.

Pretty similar to the GFS.

[Front Ranger]

00Z GFS ups the ante with the trough on Sunday... got to give Matt credit for seeing that long before the models settled on the solution.

 

Hey, where's my credit? I said like 3 or 4 days ago that it would definitely turn cooler shortly after it turned hotter.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty similar to the GFS.

 

What site do you use?

[Deweydog]

Hey, where's my credit? I said like 3 or 4 days ago that it would definitely turn cooler shortly after it turned hotter.

Don't beg. It's sad.

[TT-SEA]

Hey, where's my credit? I said like 3 or 4 days ago that it would definitely turn cooler shortly after it turned hotter.

 

 

Good job Jared!  

[Timmy Supercell]

When your not acclimated to it, that's hot here! I'll be ready for cooler weather after the next 3 days.

 

I think the point others tried to push is that temperatures that normally will not cause health hazards do not warrant issuing Excessive Heat Warnings. Whether a temperature feels "hot" to someone is irrelevant. 

[Deweydog]

What site do you use?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2016012112&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=119

[snow_wizard]

Indeed. I know September gets a lot of flack for being boring, but I find it to be a fascinating month because of dynamics like this. Summer's ghost.

 

Then of course you can also have frost and significant mountain snows in September.  Much more variable than June.

[Front Ranger]

Don't beg. It's sad.

Not begging. I'm demanding recognition for a brilliant call that was light years ahead of the competition.

[Phil]

I think the point others tried to push is that temperatures that normally will not cause health hazards do not warrant issuing Excessive Heat Warnings. Whether a temperature feels "hot" to someone is irrelevant.

Exactly. Heat advisories, sure, but excessive heat warnings should be reserved for legitimately dangerous heat.

[snow_wizard]

When your not acclimated to it, that's hot here! I'll be ready for cooler weather after the next 3 days.

 

One thing that will make this event even less uncomfortable will be very low humidity.  Late summer heat in this region is almost always VERY dry.