August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Front Ranger]

I was thinking, if this little sucker really does manage to hit 100 the next three days we will no longer be able to point to 8/17 as an unofficial benchmark of fading late-summer heating potential (at least at PDX). The big dip in record highs would be postponed until the 21st.

 

Well, if it hits 100, it joins the club with 1988, 1986, 1987, 1967, and 1944 (wow the 1986-88 period was crazy for late summer heatwaves). 

 

If it hits 103, the only year to top it would be 1988.

 

If it hits 110, your head will explode and Justin will orgasm.

[Phil]

The nights were definitely the most absurd part. Not dropping below 90 until well after midnight, with suffocating humidity.

Definitely, not to mention immediately popping back above 90F by 9AM, sometimes by 8AM. I hate days like that..they've become very frequent even up here.

 

Can't wait to move.

[ShawniganLake]

Well, if it hits 100, it joins the club with 1988, 1986, 1987, 1967, and 1944 (wow the 1986-88 period was crazy for late summer heatwaves). 

 

If it hits 103, the only year to top it would be 1988.

 

If it hits 110, your head will explode and Justin will orgasm.

Holy , I cant imagine what will happen to "Blizzard"

[ShawniganLake]

What's the NI (Nice Index) registering on the ensembles tonight?

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

[Front Ranger]

Holy s**t, I cant imagine what will happen to "Blizzard"

 

[Geos]

81/59 for here today. Gearing up for the heat wave. 

 

Starting tomorrow: 87°, 92°, 90° in the point forecast.

[Geos]

The one thing I like about the new 00z GFS is how the wavy the jet stream continues to be. I haven't seen it this wavy before in August. There's going to be plenty of blocking this Winter, it's just a question of where it sets up. As we progress into Autumn and head into Winter, if we can get everything to shift right we could be looking at a very cold and snowy Winter.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Would the ideal position of the trough be on the coast somewhat?

[Jesse]

Yeah, you want the trough to come straight down from Western Canada. You don't want to much over water trajectory because then the Arctic air gets moderated by the Pacific Ocean. The ideal set-up is what happened in January 1950.

 

http://i.imgur.com/3dJYGAw.png

 

That looks wavier than a bag of Lays. Score!!

[Geos]

Yeah, you want the trough to come straight down from Western Canada. You don't want to much over water trajectory because then the Arctic air gets moderated by the Pacific Ocean. The ideal set-up is what happened in January 1950.

 

 

Gotcha - that makes sense. 

 

With that ridge to the east it almost looks like 07-08.

[ShawniganLake]

Gotcha - that makes sense. 

 

With that ridge to the east it almost looks like 07-08.

07-08 lacked amplification with the Aleutian Ridge and west coast trough.  Cold wet storms were plentiful, but a lot of 500-1000ft snow levels.  Many long nights of hair pulling and 34-35F rain/ slush storms. 

[stuffradio]

07-08 lacked amplification with the Aleutian Ridge and west coast trough.  Cold wet storms were plentiful, but a lot of 500-1000ft snow levels.  Many long nights of hair pulling and 34-35F rain/ slush storms. 

Depends on the elevation though of course. I did pretty well that year. I am sure I got 1-2 feet of accumulating snow that year.

[ShawniganLake]

Depends on the elevation though of course. I did pretty well that year. I am sure I got 1-2 feet of accumulating snow that year.

Yea, northern areas and elevated areas did better. I was thinking more for the puget sound region. Shawnigan lake recorded 55" that season between November and April. Even still there was a lot of close calls that could have turned out better.

[ShawniganLake]

Euro looked pretty warm again days 7-10. Maybe another forecast contest if things work out.

[TT-SEA]

Euro looked pretty warm again days 7-10. Maybe another forecast contest if things work out.

 

 

Better ensemble support today as well... at least for something warmer than normal.      The ECMWF operational run has been pretty consistent in showing a major warm up again next week.   Its really similar to this week actually.   Here is next Friday (8/26):

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls13/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-8QdDMV.png

 

I was looking back a week ago and the ECMWF ensemble mean did not really support this current heat event either.    

 

This is the ECMWF ensemble mean compared to the operational run for tomorrow afternoon (8/19) from last Wednesday (8/10).     The operational run had a much better handle on the situation and was indicating hot weather... the ensemble mean was much cooler.  

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls13/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-qqV6Vw.png

[Tyler Mode]

Low of 51.7 here in BG. That means close to a 50 degree spread coming up this afternoon. If it hits 98.8 it would be largest spread of the year so far.

[Tyler Mode]

Better ensemble support today as well... at least for something warmer than normal.      The ECMWF operational run has been pretty consistent in showing a major warm up again next week.   Its really similar to this week actually.   Here is next Friday (8/26):

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls13/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-8QdDMV.png

 

I was looking back a week ago and the ECMWF ensemble mean did not really support this current heat event either.    

 

This is the ECMWF ensemble mean compared to the operational run for tomorrow afternoon (8/19) from last Wednesday (8/10).     The operational run had a much better handle on the situation and was indicating hot weather... the ensemble mean was much cooler.  

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls13/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls13-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-qqV6Vw.png

Was the GFS on this one better than the Euro?  I remember seeing it several days ago thinking, it will probably change as most of the heatwaves have been tampered down as we got closer.  Certainly not this one.

[Deweydog]

Was the GFS on this one better than the Euro? I remember seeing it several days ago thinking, it will probably change as most of the heatwaves have been tampered down as we got closer. Certainly not this one.

I think all the models caught wind of this event early last weekend, although the Euro seemed to be the most consistent.

[Jesse]

I think all the models caught wind of this event early last weekend, although the Euro seemed to be the most consistent.

 

It would be nice to avoid a third event, but it seems we are on a roll lately.

 

Setting us up for a cool September!

[TT-SEA]

It would be nice to avoid a third event, but it seems we are on a roll lately.

 

Setting us up for a cool September!

 

 

Have to agree that this probably sets us up for a cooler September.   I would gladly take a repeat of 2015.

[Deweydog]

It would be nice to avoid a third event, but it seems we are on a roll lately.

 

Setting us up for a cool September!

Monday's trough took a cool September off the table.

[Jesse]

Monday's trough took a cool September off the table.

 

Fall ball logic returns!

 

Hard to believe it's that time of year already.

[Jesse]

Low of 51.7 here in BG. That means close to a 50 degree spread coming up this afternoon. If it hits 98.8 it would be largest spread of the year so far.

 

I was thinking that many locations should see some huge spreads today.

[Deweydog]

Fall ball logic returns!

 

Hard to believe it's that time of year already.

Time flies. Last year of coaching!

 

Sad thing is, you're wondering if what I said is true.

 

Hint: It's not.

[Jesse]

Time flies. Last year of coaching!

 

Sad thing is, you're wondering if what I said is true.

 

Hint: It's not.

 

[Deweydog]

Up to 64 at PDX.

 

90 today?

[Jesse]

Up to 64 at PDX.

 

90 today?

 

It's early yet.

 

But yeah, as you said, relatively "slow" warming could certainly jeopardize triple digits today. 

[Jesse]

Time flies. Last year of coaching!

 

Sad thing is, you're wondering if what I said is true.

 

Hint: It's not.

 

For some reason I always get the theme song from "Coach" stuck in my head when you talk about coaching.

[Deweydog]

For some reason I always get the theme song from "Coach" stuck in my head when you talk about coaching.

I did not care for that show.

[Jesse]

I did not care for that show.

I don't remember a lot about it other than it was on at times when I was a kiddo.

[Deweydog]

I don't remember a lot about it other than it was on at times when I was a kiddo.

Ran from 1989-1997. Lots of snow events in there!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX and SLE running +2 and +3 over yesterday at this hour. 

[Jesse]

Ran from 1989-1997. Lots of snow events in there!

 

Bring it back!!!

[Timmy Supercell]

KLMT is running +10 degrees from yesterday at 7:53am!

[GobBluth]

It's early yet.

 

But yeah, as you said, relatively "slow" warming could certainly jeopardize triple digits today. 

The smoke from the house fire up near Bethany is putting a cap on the warming.

 

The winds are also going to get moving this afternoon further complicating.

[Front Ranger]

Time flies. Last year of coaching!

 

Sad thing is, you're wondering if what I said is true.

 

Hint: It's not.

Hey, you both thought I was actually looking for forecasting credit last night. You're both Gullible Geoffreys!

[Tyler Mode]

It's early yet.

 

But yeah, as you said, relatively "slow" warming could certainly jeopardize triple digits today. 

 

Mark and I were talking about how we can still see 20+ of warming after noon on rare occasions.  He said he remembers one forecast he had for a high of 96 after morning low clouds.  Sure enough the offshore flow kicked in and it warmed dramatically in the afternoon. 

 

Right now models show a northerly wind this afternoon, then a switch to offshore for PDX around 10 AM tomorrow.

 

In the gorge, the offshore flow has already started.

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KTTD+KDLS

[Jesse]

Mark and I were talking about how we can still see 20+ of warming after noon on rare occasions.  He said he remembers one forecast he had for a high of 96 after morning low clouds.  Sure enough the offshore flow kicked in and it warmed dramatically in the afternoon. 

 

Right now models show a northerly wind this afternoon, then a switch to offshore for PDX around 10 AM tomorrow.

 

In the gorge, the offshore flow has already started.

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link_pdiff.shtml?choice=KTTD+KDLS

 

No doubt, although I would imagine it is a tougher feat after the second week of August.

[Deweydog]

No doubt, although I would imagine it is a tougher feat after the second week of August.

For a fairly linear path to 100, we typically need to be right around 80 by 10am. We're gonna need some help.

[Jesse]

For a fairly linear path to 100, we typically need to be right around 80 by 10am. We're gonna need some help.

 

I can imagine a pretty big spike in temps if/when offshore flow surfaces later this afternoon.

[Jesse]

12z is dynamic!