August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

I don't think leanings have much to do with it. ENSO generally is pretty anemic as far as it's grip on our pattern during the warm season.

Well, you just stated, and have stated before, that el Niños tend to be downplayed here and La Niñas tend to be overemphasized. I don't know what else that could be referring to besides people's leanings/biases toward their preferred weather types.

 

If you actually meant that summertime ENSO impact tends to be overemphasized across the board here, that would be different.

[BLI snowman]

Let's look at these years @ 500mb, and compare them to the corresponding most recent Niño years. There is most certainly an effect.

 

Niña years you mentioned:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/F7C58659-31F3-4FE4-8A39-7AF6335E39D8_zpsn2pgoq3z.png

 

Corresponding Niño years:

 

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/DC166251-6CE9-4132-B92C-F1E6337B5408_zps7conzuyn.png

 

The tangible results at the surface don't argue for much of any temperature impact in the summers preceding first year Ninas. By and large it's been a crapshoot for us.

 

A significantly warm summer certainly appears more likely preceding a first year Nino, but even then it's possible to see significant lag if it's following a Nina (we had very cold summers here in 1957, 1963, and 1976).

[Front Ranger]

I don't think leanings have much to do with it. ENSO generally is pretty anemic as far as it's grip on our pattern during the warm season.

 

It's not as strong as during the cold season, no doubt, but summers in the midst of significant -ENSO events do tend to be cooler.

 

 

[Jesse]

It's not as strong as during the cold season, no doubt, but summers in the midst of significant -ENSO events do tend to be cooler.

 

cd70.89.164.134.230.15.13.14.prcp.png

That map looks like fall ball hell.

[ShawniganLake]

What do you think it is outside?

At least 130.

[Deweydog]

Well, you just stated, and have stated before, that el Niños tend to be downplayed here and La Niñas tend to be overemphasized. I don't know what else that could be referring to besides people's leanings/biases toward their preferred weather types.

 

If you actually meant that summertime ENSO impact tends to be overemphasized across the board here, that would be different.

I think your bias missed the point.

 

Point is, ENSO lag is real and ENSO events are most relevant during the cold season.

 

Case in point last winter when active December and a cold start to January had some missing entirely the fact there was a pretty clear nino stranglehold on the pattern. Good chance, if indeed a meaningful nina occurs, the inverse will occur this winter.

[Jesse]

I think your bias missed the point.

 

Point is, ENSO lag is real and ENSO events are most relevant during the cold season.

 

Case in point last winter when active December and a cold start to January had some missing entirely the fact there was a pretty clear nino stranglehold on the pattern. Good chance, if indeed a meaningful nina occurs, the inverse will occur this winter.

Makes sense. But your initial post read differently. No matter.

 

If you remember, it actually wasn't someone who would be considered on the cold biased side of things who was heavily pushing the un-Nino like unthinkability of early last winter. Quite the contrary, actually.

[Deweydog]

Makes sense. But your initial post read differently. No matter.

 

If you remember, it actually wasn't someone who would be considered on the cold biased side of things who was heavily pushing the un-Nino like unthinkability of early last winter. Quite the contrary, actually.

Just seems like there's a pretty consistent dynamic here during ENSO events according to which one is relevant. Cold doses of ENSO reality.

[ShawniganLake]

It's just my luck I'm at the hottest location west of the Cascades right now. I'm thinking of not driving home until it cools off a little bit in the evening.

Air conditioning?

[Jesse]

At least 130.

Your area just keeps overachieving relative to the rest of the region!!

[Timmy Supercell]

Very dry. 16% humidity and 40 Dew Point. With 2 additional hours of heating, maybe 96-98.

[Timmy Supercell]

Daily record for 08/18 is 95 in 1967. (same year for tomorrow's record) I'm quite confident we'll surpass that record.

[Front Ranger]

Hillsboro just hit 99. Still about 2.5 hours or so of heating left. Possible 103-105.

 

All-time August record is 106 from 1977...

 

Even the 1988 monster only peaked at 103 at HIO. Albeit a couple weeks later than this.

[GobBluth]

Appears the Portland metro is going to overachieve on temps today - surprise surprise. Think with 850s only getting hotter tomorrow that 105 could be in reach.

[James Jones]

98 at PDX. Gonna be a nail biter.

[Deweydog]

Appears the Portland metro is going to overachieve on temps today - surprise surprise. Think with 850s only getting hotter tomorrow that 105 could be in reach.

 

Overachieving?  I wouldn't say that.  99-101 looks to me to be the most typical range.

 

And 850mb temps cool slightly tomorrow, but a warmer start and the right amount of mixing could bring 102-103 into play for some.  

[Deweydog]

18z hour 384 = winter pattern 2016-17???

[GobBluth]

Overachieving?  I wouldn't say that.  99-101 looks to me to be the most typical range.

 

And 850mb temps cool slightly tomorrow, but a warmer start and the right amount of mixing could bring 102-103 into play for some.  

areas west of portland are 102-103 with downsloping off the west hills.

[MossMan]

I have AC but I drive an SUV and it uses up too much gas especially when the weather gets too hot. I usually just roll down my windows.

Didn't myth-busters do an episode about running a/c vs windows down and drag created by the downed Windows offsetting any fuel savings of not using the a/c? I say a/c away...the fuel consumption with modern vehicles running a/c has to be minuscule. But I am all for comfort in my truck, at home, in my office...

[Tyler Mode]

Didn't myth-busters do an episode about running a/c vs windows down and drag created by the downed Windows offsetting any fuel savings of not using the a/c? I say a/c away...the fuel consumption with modern vehicles running a/c has to be minuscule. But I am all for comfort in my truck, at home, in my office...

I remember above 40 mph it's better to have the windows up, below that it's better to have them down.  Ironically, I'd rather have the AC on because you have little air movement. 

[stuffradio]

Yes... 76 is torrid.  

It is/was 90 here at least...

[TT-SEA]

It is/was 90 here at least...

 

 

Not at the time.   And really... the Seattle area will only be above 90 for a few hours total with this event.     Not a big deal.  

[Front Ranger]

Not at the time.   And really... the Seattle area will only be above 90 for a few hours total with this event.     Not a big deal.  

 

And 20 degree lows aren't a big deal many places. But they are in the PNW lowlands.

[Front Ranger]

99 to this point for PDX. 102 for HIO.

[Jesse]

99 to this point for PDX. 102 for HIO.

Wonder if we'll see any more warming.

[Jesse]

HIO might make a run for the August record the next 2 days.

No way.

[Jesse]

HIO hit 102 today. They will make a run at 106, it doesn't mean they will hit it.

Well, I guess if you want to get really broad they technically made a run at it today.

 

Yes way.

[Front Ranger]

Wonder if we'll see any more warming.

 

Fairly unusual to get warmer past 5 pm this time of year...I think HIO topped out, PDX could squeeze out another degree max, I suppose.

[Timmy Supercell]

High so far 96 degrees. One thing for certain now is that we broke the 1967 record of 95 degrees.

 

If this were an early-mid July wave KLMT could have managed 100, considering a couple of the AM hours reading +10 degrees higher than previous day (6:53 and 7:53am readings). For mid-August I guess this is pretty hot anyway.

[Front Ranger]

High of 87 so far at SEA...they may fall short of their record after all. 

 

But, of course, tomorrow and Saturday will be the big days for the Puget Sound, with temps much closer to the Portland area than today.

[Timmy Supercell]

Medford hit 107 today! They tied their previous record set in 1967.

[Deweydog]

Well, I guess if you want to get really broad they technically made a run at it today.

 

Yes way.

Technically they make a run at it everyday.

[Jesse]

Technically they make a run at it everyday.

That's what I was getting at.

[Deweydog]

That's what I was getting at.

There's no way they make 106 tomorrow. There's a chance today was their peak for the event.

[Front Ranger]

This is crazy, it looks like it was hotter in Port Angeles and Quillayute. Quillayute went up 16 degrees in 35 minutes once it got an east wind. 

 

"94° for the high in Port Angeles warmest Aug day on rec at airport. Ties all-time rec Aug high fm co-op site where recs started in '33.#wawx"

 

"96° at Quillayute 2nd warmest August day on record surpassed only by 99° on August 9, 1981. #wawx"

 

"What happens when the easterlies get to Quillayute? Temperature went from 79 at 255 pm to 95 at 330 pm this afternoon. #wawx"

 

https://twitter.com/NWSSeattle

 

Yeah, the coast often peaks before the interior. Especially hot in this type of pattern, as Dewey and others have discussed.

[Phil]

Not at the time. And really... the Seattle area will only be above 90 for a few hours total with this event. Not a big deal.

Excessive heat warning!!!!!

[Deweydog]

Tomorrow really could be a crazy day at the coast. It's a delicate balance, but Astoria, Seaside, etc. could make a serious run at 100.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah but I don't think anybody expected Port Angeles to tie it's all time August record high. They were forecast to only get to 87 today.

 

Super impressive. Bodes well for extreme heat inland tomorrow.

[snow_wizard]

Fascinating numbers unfolding with this event.

 

The 96 degree high at Forks is quite eye catching as is the dp of 24 at Omak.  Certainly some very dry air entering the picture as this unfolds.

[TT-SEA]

Fascinating numbers unfolding with this event.

 

The 96 degree high at Forks is quite eye catching as is the dp of 24 at Omak.  Certainly some very dry air entering the picture as this unfolds.

 

 

GFS MOS keeps the dewpoint in the 50s at SEA through Sunday.