August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Exactly. Heat advisories, sure, but excessive heat warnings should be reserved for legitimately dangerous heat.

 

I think some places will push 100 which is no slouch.  It will be very dry though.  The red flag (fire weather) warning is very legitimate in this case.

[Front Ranger]

Good job Jared!

Thanks. I learned everything I know from Brett Anderson and Joe Bastardi.

[Jesse]

Dynamic!

 

Good thing the models haven't waffled much inside of the 5-7 day range lately.

 

Set it and forget it!

[Deweydog]

Good thing the models haven't waffled much inside of the 5-7 day range lately.

 

Set it and forget it!

Whatever gets you through the night.

[snow_wizard]

Another trough around day 10.

[Front Ranger]

Exactly. Heat advisories, sure, but excessive heat warnings should be reserved for legitimately dangerous heat.

 

Agreed. The Seattle NWS is crying wolf here. Desensitizing the masses. Blood will be on their hands for the September 2016 "Indian Summer Heatwave of Death".

[Jesse]

Whatever gets you through the night.

 

Ridges and lots of them!

 

Honestly, though, the 00Z is pretty nice, cherry-picked trollframes notwithstanding.

[Front Ranger]

I think some places will push 100 which is no slouch.  It will be very dry though.  The red flag (fire weather) warning is very legitimate in this case.

 

In your area? Seems unlikely.

[Jesse]

Another trough around day 10.

 

Dynamic!!

[Deweydog]

Ridges and lots of them!

 

Honestly, though, the 00Z is pretty nice, cherry-picked trollframes notwithstanding.

It's a run. Lots of variability and incredulousness. Michael J. seems to be pretty convinced as well.

[ShawniganLake]

Exactly. Heat advisories, sure, but excessive heat warnings should be reserved for legitimately dangerous heat.

Do they really need different levels of heat warnings.  I bet 99.9% of the population doesn't know the difference between an advisory or a warning.  A statement warning people of unusually hot conditions would probably be adequate.  I would say 95F west of the Cascades is worthy of special notice for elderly or those who work outside. 

[TT-SEA]

Another trough around day 10.

 

 

Yes... that 582DM trough at 240 hours looks wicked!    

 

Of course that is a cherry picked frame surrounded by various forms of ridging.   

[Front Ranger]

Do they really need different levels of heat warnings.  I bet 99.9% of the population doesn't know the difference between an advisory or a warning.  A statement warning people of unusually hot conditions would probably be adequate.  I would say 95F west of the Cascades is worthy of special notice for elderly or those who work outside. 

 

The funny thing is, their statement even includes this:

 

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF

DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR, CREATING A SITUATION IN

WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS (NOT

ALCOHOL), SEEK AN AIR-CONDITIONED PLACE, STAY OUT OF THE SUN, AND

CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

 

I mean, c'mon. Unless you or your neighbor/relative is a complete idiot, heat illnesses are not likely with low 90s and low humidity. Sunburn does not count.

[Deweydog]

I've yet to see any segments on the local news telling me how to "beat the heat."

 

I don't know what the **** I'm gonna do.

[TT-SEA]

The funny thing is, their statement even includes this:

 

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF

DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR, CREATING A SITUATION IN

WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS (NOT

ALCOHOL), SEEK AN AIR-CONDITIONED PLACE, STAY OUT OF THE SUN, AND

CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

 

I mean, c'mon. Unless you or your neighbor/relative is a complete idiot, heat illnesses are not likely with low 90s and low humidity. Sunburn does not count.

 

 

That is actually pretty comical.    

[Jesse]

I've yet to see any segments on the local news telling me how to "beat the heat."

 

I don't know what the **** I'm gonna do.

 

If you start overheating, lay in the middle of an asphalt parking lot, in direct sunlight, wearing all black.

 

Don't bring water.

[snow_wizard]

In your area? Seems unlikely.

 

More down south.

[Deweydog]

If you start overheating, lay in the middle of an asphalt parking lot, in direct sunlight, wearing all black.

 

Don't bring water.

Will this make it snow this winter?

[Front Ranger]

If you start overheating, lay in the middle of an asphalt parking lot, in direct sunlight, wearing all black.

 

Don't bring water.

 

Personally, I prefer to lock myself in my car with my pet, roll up the windows, and start chugging vodka.

[snow_wizard]

One thing I will say about this is the potential does exist for some unexpectedly high temps.  A lot of tricky variables on this one.  On the other hand...this time of year lower sun angle and less intense insolation does begin to play a role. 

[snow_wizard]

Personally, I prefer to lock myself in my car with my pet, roll up the windows, and start chugging vodka.

 

You need to have a baby with you also.

[TT-SEA]

Will this make it snow this winter?

 

 

That trough on Sunday would no doubt bring a good foot of snow to Seattle if it happened in December.    Maybe lows in the single digits after it cleared out.

[Deweydog]

That trough on Sunday would no doubt bring a good foot of snow to Seattle if it happened in December. Maybe lows in the single digits after it cleared out.

The quickly building ridge would lock in low level cold like a mother.

[Front Ranger]

You need to have a baby with you also.

 

And/or the elderly.

[Phil]

I think some places will push 100 which is no slouch. It will be very dry though. The red flag (fire weather) warning is very legitimate in this case.

That's the difference, though. Having experienced 115+ degree heat in Yuma, AZ, I've been on both sides of the coin in regards to humidity. There's just no comparison, they're totally different animals.

 

In Yuma, it felt like the heat was attacking me from the outside, like, it was confined to my skin. My body didn't overheat, and I felt pretty good overall (minus the frequent nosebleeds).

 

In DC, it's totally different. It's a heavy, suffocating heat that feels like it's attacking me from the inside-out. I'm drenched in sweat instantly when I walk outside.

 

I'd take a dry, 115 degree heat over a humid, 95+ degree heat any day.

[snow_wizard]

The quickly building ridge would lock in low level cold like a mother.

 

Excellent point.  One time where ridges right over us are GOOD in the winter.

[TT-SEA]

The quickly building ridge would lock in low level cold like a mother.

 

 

Pretty much every trough in the last few winters has brought accumulating snow and frigid cold to Seattle.  I can't remember the last time it did not work out for us here.

[snow_wizard]

That's the difference, though. Having experienced 115+ degree heat in Yuma, AZ, I've been on both sides of the coin in regards to humidity. There's just no comparison, they're totally different animals.

 

In Yuma, it felt like the heat was attacking me from the outside, like, it was confined to my skin. My body didn't overheat, and I felt pretty good overall (minus the frequent nosebleeds).

 

In DC, it's totally different. It's a heavy, suffocating heat that feels like it's attacking me from the inside-out. I'm drenched in sweat instantly when I walk outside.

 

I'd take a dry, 115 degree heat over a humid, 95+ degree heat any day.

 

For sure.  I went to New York once and experienced the horrible humidity there in the summer.  It just about chokes the life out of you.  No thanks!

[Jesse]

Will this make it snow this winter?

 

It won't NOT make it snow.

[Front Ranger]

One thing I will say about this is the potential does exist for some unexpectedly high temps.  A lot of tricky variables on this one.  On the other hand...this time of year lower sun angle and less intense insolation does begin to play a role. 

 

It will be quite fascinating to watch unfold. Can't rule out a big bust, but also can't rule out one of the greatest heatwaves after 8/17.

[Deweydog]

That's the difference, though. Having experienced 115+ degree heat in Yuma, AZ, I've been on both sides of the coin in regards to humidity. There's just no comparison, they're totally different animals.

 

In Yuma, it felt like the heat was attacking me from the outside, like, it was confined to my skin. My body didn't overheat, and I felt pretty good overall (minus the frequent nosebleeds).

 

In DC, it's totally different. It's a heavy, suffocating heat that feels like it's attacking me from the inside-out. I'm drenched in sweat instantly when I walk outside.

 

I'd take a dry, 115 degree heat over a humid, 95+ degree heat any day.

Yeah, I don't think many people here truly appreciate the affects of REAL humidity. I've experienced it twice in Florida and once in South Texas. Each time it made me physically ill. Vegas in July? Piece of cake as long as you can find shade.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty much every trough in the last few winters has brought accumulating snow and frigid cold to Seattle.  I can't remember the last time it did not work out for us here.

 

Poor attempt at humor.

[Deweydog]

It won't NOT make it snow.

I'm intrigued! You're typically not this confident this far out!

[Front Ranger]

For sure.  I went to New York once and experienced the horrible humidity there in the summer.  It just about chokes the life out of you.  No thanks!

 

Try New Orleans. I spent a week there in July 2010. As soon as you step outside and take 2 steps, even at 10 pm, you're sweating profusely.

[TT-SEA]

For sure.  I went to New York once and experienced the horrible humidity there in the summer.  It just about chokes the life out of you.  No thanks!

 

Does it compare to our endless heat right now that is making you so angry?    It has been a nightmare of summer pleasantness here lately.    Phil can certainly relate.

[TT-SEA]

Poor attempt at humor.

 

Always fun to say troughs in August and September... and also April... WOULD bring snow and cold IF they had happened in the winter.   

 

It always works out in your mind.   Not so much in reality.

[Deweydog]

It will be quite fascinating to watch unfold. Can't rule out a big bust, but also can't rule out one of the greatest heatwaves after 8/17.

Yeah, there is definitely a bust potential for the top end. Tomorrow could be a little slow to warm while Friday still hints that it might be overmixed. Saturday could easily get clipped if the clipper decides to clip quicklier.

[Jesse]

It will be quite fascinating to watch unfold. Can't rule out a big bust, but also can't rule out one of the greatest heatwaves after 8/17.

 

I was thinking, if this little sucker really does manage to hit 100 the next three days we will no longer be able to point to 8/17 as an unofficial benchmark of fading late-summer heating potential (at least at PDX). The big dip in record highs would be postponed until the 21st.

[Phil]

Try New Orleans. I spent a week there in July 2010. As soon as you step outside and take 2 steps, even at 10 pm, you're sweating profusely.

Yeah, I've visited there twice in early August. Actually very similar to DC overall, except nights are generally nastier/more humid, and days are generally more tolerable/cooler.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, I've visited there twice in early August. Actually very similar to DC overall, except nights are generally nastier/more humid, and days are generally more tolerable/cooler.

 

The nights were definitely the most absurd part. Not dropping below 90 until well after midnight, with suffocating humidity.